To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

I don't need normal back, at least not urgently. Tier two and lighter evenings would be fine by me.

@PurpleMustang

The news is just saying now that the NHS is warning the peak with be in a month, so sorry not gonna happen

We'll start coming out the other side in March. Jan and Feb were always going to be a disaster after how the government cocked it up in December.

@thecatsthecats

I don't need normal back, at least not urgently. Tier two and lighter evenings would be fine by me.

That's where we'll be by about Easter IMO.

Tier 1 shortly after.

@User158340

That's what I broadly expect, well, at least the lighter evenings!

But seriously, I hate the false dichotomy between lockdown and normal. So long as the number of deaths and hospitalisations are whacked by vaccination, the government will be desperate to allow us to go out spending and earning to pay for this.

And some of the restrictions in the winter will be welcome - e.g. the expectation that office workers etc wfh if they're unwell rather than spreading germs for example.

I am expecting exam years to be back after half term, all other years after Easter.

Restrictions will ease slightly in early March - with the whole country in a much better place by early April. Restrictions will last in some capacity until early autumn until every adult has been vaccinated.

In a perfect world this will happen and we won't have any further mutant strains. I am reasonably confident we will be going on holiday this summer and some element of normal socialising with care will take place.

[quote thecatsthecats]@User158340

That's what I broadly expect, well, at least the lighter evenings!

But seriously, I hate the false dichotomy between lockdown and normal. So long as the number of deaths and hospitalisations are whacked by vaccination, the government will be desperate to allow us to go out spending and earning to pay for this.

And some of the restrictions in the winter will be welcome - e.g. the expectation that office workers etc wfh if they're unwell rather than spreading germs for example.[/quote]
Many millions in different regions were in tier 2 in December despite high cases. This semi-lockdown is a last resort because it's mid winter and numbers are through the roof causing a crisis in hospitals.

The virus is seasonal. It won't spread as much once we get into BST at the end of March. There'll be some restrictions in place through the year, mainly around social distancing and large gatherings, but once the hospitals are stable again restrictions will significantly ease.

Winter will be another challenge but March-September should be a lot better than the abject misery at the moment.

At the moment, I am coping with 6 day working week, all homeschooling for three kids, cooking three + meals a day, helping it it problems, homework cooking and cleaning alone and I’ve had no break at all for months as ex- DJ can’t take the kids. However, I need this to end. This is why threads such as “Will be schools be shut until September “ are so damaging to mental health. Maybe you have supportive husband, a garden and time off but I don’t. There are limits to how much people can endure and I think, both individually and collectively, we are reaching those limits.

We all need optimism but I can’t muster enough to believe that things will magically transfer to normal in the near future. I do hope I am wrong.

It's not magic, it's a vaccine and the seasons of the year.

We had lots of freedoms last summer, and my kid was happily in school from August til December in a world with no vaccine.

Now we have one so this year will be significantly better than last year.

This is our normal, we have to get used to it, the virus is not magically vanishing, nor did flu, it changes its structure yearly, and we adapt.Those who feel its the governments fault are welcome to move to China, live under their rules.

no it's not magically vanishing but herd immunity is increasing.

There's a vaccine (several)
Healthy people aren't going to tolerate sitting at home forever when the survival rate is 99% give or take. That's no judgement on whether that's right or wrong but there will be hedge pubs soon, hedge hairdressers, hedge restaurants.

Things will have to open back up.

In fact it's already happening. I'm not saying this is ''ok'' by the way but if the level of public fear is not there then the restrictions are going to seem too extreme. For the first lockdown, there was fear. WE saw the situation in italy.

but now, three lockdowns in, we've already had pictures in the paper here in Ireland of people turning their spacious garages in to shebeens (with log burners, leather sofas, pool tables, poofs) and they were fined, but my visceral first reaction to the picture of the shebeen i saw was oooooh that looks nice.

Most people still comply because we have to, but once the fear goes,and what healthy person under forty is really scared they won't bounce back from a flu, then they have to work with the levels of natural compliance, otherwise they will be pushing water uphill policing the shebeens, that money would be better put in to better staffed ICU units.

They have to work with people. And they will. They're still figuring it out. They haven't been here before.

Probably Easter when more people have been vaccinated.

I don't think we'll be 'back to normal' for most of the year - as in, completely normal life with no masks etc. But in terms of schools reopening, I think it'll be after the Easter break - Feb half term is not that long away, and the pressures on the NHS will likely not be reduced enough by that point to allow the risk.

@Bluntness100

Yes - I dont understand why so many people dont get the delay between lockdown restrictions, cases and deaths ...
All this shouting about a lockdown not working and people flouting restrictions yet here we are a few weeks later and your cases in the UK are on the decline.
The effects of a lockdown take a few weeks to be noticed.
Cases turn to deaths a few weeks after a spike in cases.
Thats just how it works!

[quote OldOrMaybeNotThatOld]@Bluntness100

Yes - I dont understand why so many people dont get the delay between lockdown restrictions, cases and deaths ...
All this shouting about a lockdown not working and people flouting restrictions yet here we are a few weeks later and your cases in the UK are on the decline.
The effects of a lockdown take a few weeks to be noticed.
Cases turn to deaths a few weeks after a spike in cases.
Thats just how it works![/quote]
Yeah, lockdowns slow the spread but leave you dealing with the lag for a few weeks while the lockdown occurs. Deaths peaked in April in the UK for example.

Cases are falling in London and the SE nearly 4 weeks into the lockdown - quite a few threads on here look at that.

Thanks to the government, extreme pessimism seems to be the only thing that's allowed in Britain at the moment.

It's deliberate managing of exiectations downwards by the government very different atmosphere in other European countries, while still taking covid seriously.

I think this summer will be similar to last but (if the vaccine is being rolled successfully) there won’t be that sense of ‘oh dear we’re going to pay for this’ that last year had

I was hopeful for March time originally but now I can't see the wood for the trees.
I'm usually optimistic but I have a sinking feeling they're going to fuck up the vaccines and the new strains are going to be problematic - there's been a lot of silence over the situation in Japan in the media which is a little unsettling considering they announced a major state of emergency and have isolated another new strain.

However once the vaccine has been given in BOTH doses to the majority of those over 60 I think things will be looking a little better. The cases by age however do seem to be higher in the under 60 age group at the moment, in my local region and quite a few others, so I think we will need to see a LOT more people having the vaccination before proper 'normality' or something resembling kicks in.

The Spanish Flu pandemic took two years I believe and had four waves - I think we will be looking at something similar in terms of timing, but not in terms of waves due to the vaccine.

I’m hoping they can go back after Easter. And I also hope there is an actual plan for what’s happening for current year 12 and year 10 in terms of their exams in 2022.

Didn’t they say this about WW1?

I don’t agree with you. Full normality by 2022/3

I am OK with Tier 2, better weather, lighter evenings, being able to go to back to my therapy in person and my children back at school, and maybe be able to go out for a meal outside again in the summer with friends.

If I can have those things after Easter it will be like birthday and christmas rolled into one! I think it will really make us grateful for what we do have. For a few weeks anyway .... then we will all be back to moaning as usual and taking everything for granted

The positive tests appear to have peaked last week, if in a couple of weeks this has continued we should start to see hospitals having less patients (approx 2 week lag) and the death rate starts to decline (this will be slower) plus the vaccination programme keeps to plan (supply is an issue not administering it) then I would expect government to start to discuss dates for bringing back primary schools, probably starting with under 8's plus students at universities with practical elements.

We have a family wedding planned for Easter - do you think we have any chance of it going ahead??