To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

Next March maybe.

I meant it'll be after the Easter holidays for schools going back.

I'm think/hope by Easter once the vulnerable have been jabbed.

I am still holding on to the hope that by end of Feb the schools can reopen. Boris has said schools will open first and they are going to want to get the economy moving again. Primary could reopen before secondary fairly safely.

Not expecting overseas holidays at Easter but very possible by May (I've booked UK holidays to be on the safe side). I think we are going to have social distancing , WFH and restrictions on daily life until October at least and I can see next winter having another spike but I can't say that far out and with a vaccine roll out if this means we will not be back to normality until 2022.

@nannybeach

You are joking!! I said in March the virus would still be circulating in a years' time, was told I should be certified.

Well, it will be circulating forever probably, like the flu does. The question is to what degree, and how do we respond to it?

I'm with the "after Easter at the earliest" crowd. There may just possibly be signs that the latest lockdown is working, and two weeks after imposition is a reasonable time frame. But there's still at least two more weeks of rising admissions baked in, and probably another 3 weeks of rising deaths even if my optimism is justified. That takes us to the end of Feb before we start seeing all the indicators going the right way. If we're very lucky we don't break the NHS in the mean time, if we do all bets are off.

@Strictly1

I don't think they will invite year groups back earlier as they did in March this time, as there's no space.

Aah that's a very good point, I hadn't thought of that. Yes probably start of summer term then.

I’m thinking the same as the OP - I’m
Looking forward to the spring x

By Easter if we’re lucky we’ll see a gradual return of some year groups going back and a unravelling of things opening back up slowly. Test and trace, isolating and rapid testing will be apart of our life for years. By the end of this year we will enter into a deep recession...

@CoronaIsWatching

I have a horrible feeling something is about to go spectacularly wrong very shortly, like the virus mutating so the vaccine doesn't work or some unknown side effect of the vaccine coming out of the woodwork. It's a feeling I can't shake and can't get optimistic.

I agree and as someone else said on here we keep hearing about other mutant strains from other countries too ( I read things online then they tend to disappear? ..) I really do hope not but I can't shake the feeling there's things they are not telling us? Not sure why and it's probably just paranoia on my part. We need some hope and the vaccine is doing this but maybe it won't be quite the silver bullet they want it to be? Have to see how it pans out i suppose and hope that the science gets us out of it.

My birthday is April 7th and I'm fully expecting it to be another lockdown one.

I really hope so OP, I'm just clinging on for the next 10 weeks or so...

Local officials have given one of our local towns eateries a date of may 1st to reopen...

Highly unlikely - we've not seen the outcome of people cramming together at Christmas yet, yet alone the twerps that get vaccinated and/or tested and think "yeah, I have a free pass now"

First dose of the vaccine takes three weeks to get to strength, and who knows when people are likely to get the second dose. (which then takes a further three weeks)

Most likely September I think - possibly a bit more relaxed over summer.

We went INTO lockdown in March 2020. Why on earth would we come out in March 2021?

I think and hope the government will try their hardest to get primary schools back as soon as possible. Easter is unthinkable to me, I would be devastated for our children if that turns out to be true. They are going to be the greatest losers in all of this

@Rosebel

Vaccines are being done quicker in some areas. My parents had their first dose last week and they are 75 and 78. Having said that I can't see things being "normal" until mid to late summer at the earliest. So I think schools might go back after Easter but more likely to be September.

I think there's going to be a huge element of postcode lottery with the vaccinations.

In my area, they're barely started on the over-80s, but it's clear that some areas are way ahead of that. The new mass vaccination centres aren't going to be much help with the 80+ group, both the centres for the south east are 50 miles or so away, and I can't see many over-80s being in a position to get to Epsom or E London very easily from the East Sussex coast.

And when they first started vaccinations at the one surgery in town that does them, people were waiting out in the cold for 4 hours to be vaccinated. There are two hospitals in the area both carrying out vaccinations, but they're only vaccinating people who live in the towns where the hospitals are located at the moment.

Even if the target to vax the 80+, the CEV people and the front-line and care home workers by mid-Feb is met, it will be early May before they've all had the second shot. And I have reservations about the departure from the manufacturers' protocol regarding the interval before the second injection. It's uncharted waters imo.

I'm feeling very despondent about it all at the moment.

I was optimistic kids will be back in school after Easter, maybe a week or two late - a bit less sure now, though maybe if they set up the lateral flow testing. The problem is that in the last round it was so prevalent in secondary schools, I can't see how they can just let them back without a lot of precautions before May or June when the weather might supress the virus a bit. And remember we had an exceptionally consistently warm spring and summer next year and it probably won't happen again this year. I do think kids will get to finish their year in school.

It's Passover at the end of March, just as it was just after lockdown last year. I had hoped we might be able to have another household over for the seder meal but I can't see it happening - I think we'll be doing it on Zoom again. I suspect the best case scenario is that by then the vaccine will have started to have an impact if things work out and they might just be starting to think about easing measures, but we won't be at the 'having guests indoors' point yet.

@Scaredykittycat

We went INTO lockdown in March 2020. Why on earth would we come out in March 2021?

There had been no restrictions prior to 11th march 2020. We have hardly left our houses this year. So we are two months ahead this year.

I'm worried that the government won't invest in any precautions in education so next winter we end up with sky high cases in children again.

@Jangle33

I don’t think the vaccine is this silver bullet you expect! Boris has said he hopes kids back in some form before the summer holidays and Chris Whitty that we should have restrictions next winter. Covid will be with us a very long time it’s just what level of death is acceptable.

As for holidays abroad, dream on! Even if it’s in control in the U.K., no suggestion it will be elsewhere.

Chris Whitty that we should have restrictions next winter

He didn’t say that.

No.

Over by February? Next February, maybe.

I think they’ll get a couple of days before Easter and then back properly after that.

I think Reception to Year 2 will be back after Feb half term. Ofsted estimated the most impacted by the last lockdown were the Year 2s. Secondary online for a little longer. Schools will go back before anything else opens.

Teachers need to be prioritised for the vaccine.

The rest is a moveable feast, depending on how and whether cases fall. I don't plan on any holidays this year and I won't shop for non essentials. I've postponed starting a new NHS role I was due to take up this month because I was close to a breakdown juggling everything last time.