To think this will largely be over in two months?!

[ChristmasIvy]

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

Spring 2022 is the consensus on this Twitter thread: twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1348947349809344513?s=21

I expect that most of the people who would have needed to go to hospital with covid before vaccination will still need to go to hospital. They might need less intervention, and have a better survival rate. They may be ill for longer. And that in itself will kill some people.

The new variants can kill more people by spreading further faster and getting to more people who can be killed by it. They are not more virulent, they are more transmissible, but the end result is still more hospitalisations and deaths.

@QuestionableMouse

I'm betting on March or even April before things even start to get more normal.

Was talking about this earlier, I think April. I just hope this is the last lockdown.

I think the children will be back at school after Easter and that’s being optimistic.... I think we could have social distancing and mask wearing here till Xmas :/

Kids at home until then Easter, and then a summer a bit like last year with various restrictions. I just have to take it a day at a time but hopeful my UK break at the end of July might happen.

@Dwrcegin It won't be the last lockdown if the government do what they did in December and open up on the date they promised even though cases were still running at 100,000 a week and deaths at 3000.

Not a chance. The vaccination doesn't stop transmission and no testing on how many older/vulnerable people will still catch it and to what degree, as trials were on generally younger healthy people, also not on other medications.

The PCR test doesn't prove if you are infectious (now or ever were). So regardless when deaths decrease, we will still be muzzled and restricted.
NHS is always near breaking point in Jan/Feb historically and with so many staff isolating needlessly now (because of PCR testing claiming positives when likely not, and therefore close contacts having to isolate), and the purging on bed numbers due to funding year after year, best case I would guess is Easter ... wouldnt be surprised if the kids didn't get back at all.

Meanwhile some parents are killing themselves working full time and homeschooling.... its like a casino in my house, I've no longer any idea if its night or day!

@DorisDances

We have a family wedding planned for Easter - do you think we have any chance of it going ahead??

Easter 2022 with reduced numbers maybe.... this shit show will be restricting and ruining lives longer than many assume (is my personal opinion) :-(

I’ve just moved my wedding for the 3rd time, cause I don’t believe it’ll be back to normal by Easter. Moved from May to October

Late to the party. Here's a just für you OP. You optimistic fool you!

I wish I thought you were right.
I think that it’s going to go on far longer than the Government are prepared to broadcast. Fingers crossed that we get some respite from the stricter rules in the warmer months, but it’ll be back to something like this next winter. It’ll take that long for those last in the immunisation queue, the young and healthy, to gain immunity from the vaccine, surely?

@ChristmasIvy

I’m home schooling at the moment and surprised by how many other parents seem to think that this lockdown could continue for the rest of the academic year. I’m expecting the worst of the lockdown to be over by Feb half term - I.e. when millions of the most vulnerable will have received the vaccine, winter is almost over, and the seasonal drain on the NHS is alleviated. What am I missing?! I also believe we will be able to go on “normal” holidays again by Easter...

If only.

I think it may be "largely over" this time next year, and even then, I'm not sure. We're nowhere near the peak, a tiny percentage of people have been immunised, the economy is flat on its back, children will be out of school until February at the absolute earliest, and probably till Easter. And then there's the effect of Brexit on just about everything.

So, no, I don't think this will be "largely over" in March. I think some impossibly optimistic people might think that.

I don’t think the virus knows anything about terms and deadlines.

Nobody can predict the future. What would be the sense of rushing “normal” again? If we go back before we’re ready the kids will have school interrupted on a regular basis for years!

expect that most of the people who would have needed to go to hospital with covid before vaccination will still need to go to hospital. They might need less intervention, and have a better survival rate. They may be ill for longer. And that in itself will kill some people

This is very insightful.

I think nothing will change for a few good months and home schooling will continue in some aspect for the rest of the year. Research is ongoing about the new variant, and the world is watching us with keen interest to see if our strategy of rolling out the vaccination will be effective because the second dose of the vaccination should be given 3-4 weeks after the first. We’re doing the second dose at 12 weeks. Surely we will have to start opening up toward April so that the effectiveness of the vaccine can be assessed to some degree.

It will get easier, when normal seasonal flu season is over, COVID will still be here, of course, but many more people will be vaccinated, roll on spring.

We'll be back in a tier system come mid April, but yeah autumn before full normality and even then I predict outbreaks that will need to be controlled.

One of my friends who is senior in the NHS has been told to plan for 15 March as a “reopening” week. Obviously not big events and stuff like that, but day to day things like shops and schools.

Do people take pleasure in quoting others and saying “yeah, spring 2022/23!!”? It’s bizarre. Let people be optimistic without specifically dragging them down. Grim.

Our school have just sent out requests to parents if they can train and support with children testing

They seem to be gearing up to an after half Feb half term return for secondary school

I'm sceptical that we will see return to full schooling before end of Easter term.

But thought that it was interesting our secondary school is planning for return at - so far provisional- end of 6 week lockdown3

Eater holiday and normality- nope not a chance

Can people stop saying that the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission? They don’t know yet whether it does, but are predicting that it’s likely that it actually does prevent transmission.

Figures are starting to come down and the death rate is usually about two weeks behind. Added to which the flu season ending will remove some of the pressure from the NHS although we’ve had a very mild flu season this year.

Scotland have just announced a change to the vaccine categories and ECV are no longer being vaccinated in category4 but are instead being vaccinated along with the under 65’s.... So for Scotland that may well delay re-opening.

And the one advantage of Brexit is that we have been able to order our vaccines independently. The European vaccination programmes are an absolute embarrassment.

MrsMarrio
“Things will never be normal again“

Don’t be daft, of course they will. With full vaccine roll out, it will represent the same threat as seasonal ‘flu.

My h is head of education and he told me the government warned the peak would be around middle of Feb a couple of weeks ago.

@Jangle33

Think they should have closed the borders in the summer then we might not be in the mess we are now!

Why, why do people keep posting this? It didn't happen so what's the point in going on and on about it ?

No 10 are planning for end of April. I have a friend who works there. I know everyone says this but I really do.

@marthastew

No 10 are planning for end of April. I have a friend who works there. I know everyone says this but I really do.

What they are planning for is irrelevant. They "planned" for an end to the furlough scheme at the end of October, but that didn't happen, did it? It's now planned to end at the end of April, but, again, that's more wishful thinking than anything else. No one knows what will happen with infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths. They "plan" for all kinds of things all the time. Just because they have a plan doesn't mean they are expecting it to happen.