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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

% chance of holiday going ahead

58 replies

ColdNovemberDay · 26/12/2020 08:01

We’re booked to go to Finland on 17 January - we live in a tier 2 area but will be flying from London (currently tier 4). Finland is currently banning tourists until 12 Jan.

We need to plan ahead a bit as we’d need to cancel care arrangements if we’re not going (will be expensive to cancel last minute).

I think we still have a reasonable chance of it going ahead as the tiers will have been reviewed then. DH thinks 0% and the holiday company just haven’t cancelled it yet.

What % chance do you think there is of it going ahead?

I think 65%

OP posts:
Matildatoldsuchdreadfullies · 26/12/2020 08:05

The words ‘hell’ and ‘snowball’ come to mind, in no particular order.

badpuma · 26/12/2020 08:05

I'm with your DH. I think the chances are virtually nil as we're likely to be back in a full nationwide lockdown by then, probably with secondary schools off as well. As you might just be okay, I'd say 10% chance max.

Aposterhasnoname · 26/12/2020 08:06

I’m with your husband I’m afraid, and I’m the most optimistic person ever on COVID. If you’d said Easter, I’d have said 100% but January is just too early.

midinthenight · 26/12/2020 08:13

I'm an optimist which is why I'm saying 20% chance of going

Bagel88 · 26/12/2020 08:13

The odds are 50/50.
It will either go or it won't.

Any other odds are guesses IMHO :-(

ZaraW · 26/12/2020 08:16

0%

MirandaWest · 26/12/2020 08:16

I don’t think it will go ahead

nosswith · 26/12/2020 08:17

Almost nil, as Finland might be accepting people from outside their country by then, but not the UK.

PurpleFlower1983 · 26/12/2020 08:18

No chance at all. The whole country will be in Tier 4 by then and no one will be going anywhere.

BlackberrySky · 26/12/2020 08:18

You will not be going. Chance of going ahead is 0%. Nor should you be going. We are in the middle of a global pandemic and the UK is the cradle of a new strain of the virus. International travel is a major contributor to global spread. But you know this, don't you?

Sirzy · 26/12/2020 08:18

I can’t see it and even if it did in the current climate will it really be an enjoyable holiday?

annevonkleve · 26/12/2020 08:19

@BlackberrySky

You will not be going. Chance of going ahead is 0%. Nor should you be going. We are in the middle of a global pandemic and the UK is the cradle of a new strain of the virus. International travel is a major contributor to global spread. But you know this, don't you?
No point trying to virtue signal - if the OP's holiday is going ahead she has to go or lose the money. Would YOU be happy to lose ££££ on a holiday you didn't take (but could have done)?
DanielRicciardosSmile · 26/12/2020 08:19

10% and that's me being optimistic, sorry OP.

annevonkleve · 26/12/2020 08:20

However, I agree it won't happen. Don't cancel the care arrangements though OP - you still deserve a break even if you have it at home.

Gizlotsmum · 26/12/2020 08:21

I would assume it will be cancelled, London going into tier 4, the new strain, the current Finnish ban...none of that will radically improve over the next 2 weeks...

BlackberrySky · 26/12/2020 08:23

@annevonkleve What is virtue signalling about stating the facts? I am fed up of people being totally blind to the fact that their actions are making things worse.

MaskingForIt · 26/12/2020 08:24

Pretty selfish to even be considering travelling abroad when the U.K. is the source of a new strain of virus.

whiteroseredrose · 26/12/2020 08:24

Probably about 10% - and I'm usually optimistic!

I think the problem is the new variant of the virus. As it spreads, more countries will shut the door to UK visitors.

We'll be going to Spain the minute that they will let us as now both PIL have had strokes out there. But I think that we'll have to wait for a while 😢.

Blackdog19 · 26/12/2020 08:24

Sorry OP, I think your husband is closer

AnyFucker · 26/12/2020 08:26

...

Original poster
ColdNovemberDay · 26/12/2020 08:26

Oh dear :(

OP posts:
AlternativePerspective · 26/12/2020 08:34

I think the problem is the new variant of the virus. As it spreads, more countries will shut the door to UK visitors. I think it’s worth remembering that the new strain of the virus is not going to be an exclusively UK thing, and that just because it was first detected here doesn’t mean that it’s only here.

There is in fact a lot of talk that it was related to the virus detected in mink in Denmark some months ago, and there has also been suggestion that it may have originated in Brazille as early as April which would explain why their figures shot up so incredibly quickly.

What is important to remember is that a new strain of the virus has been detected and as such no-one should be going anywhere from any country...

Regardless of the chances of the country being re-opened, it is irresponsible to be travelling abroad at this point and you should be cancelling on that basis alone.

Personally I think we will be in complete lockdown anyway by then, but even if we aren’t you need to cancel.

NoWordForFluffy · 26/12/2020 08:36

At present you have to isolate for 10 days on arrival to Finland. What does your tour operator say? I can't see it happening at all.

Crakeandoryx · 26/12/2020 08:41

Your very probably not going.

MsTSwift · 26/12/2020 08:46

Would they even let you in?