% chance of holiday going ahead

[ColdNovemberDay]

We’re booked to go to Finland on 17 January - we live in a tier 2 area but will be flying from London (currently tier 4). Finland is currently banning tourists until 12 Jan.

We need to plan ahead a bit as we’d need to cancel care arrangements if we’re not going (will be expensive to cancel last minute).

I think we still have a reasonable chance of it going ahead as the tiers will have been reviewed then. DH thinks 0% and the holiday company just haven’t cancelled it yet.

What % chance do you think there is of it going ahead?

I think 65%

Sorry but 10% chance at best.

Pretty much zero sorry

Sorry OP, but I think 10% chance at best for a trip so imminent. For a range of reasons:

-the new faster- spreading strain likely to increase number of cases

• the fact that it’s winter and cold which makes the virus easier to spread anyway

-the relaxation of the rules we’ve had over Christmas will see a peak in cases in a few days from now -even though we have most of the country in tier 4 it’s not likely to be very effective as schools are still set to open again from early January and the charts that show the huge spike in cases from early September when schools fully reopened suggests a similar trend from as soon as schools go back.

I don’t like to be a negative Nelly but in your situation would definitely arrange to cancel it I’m afraid 😞.

Zero. Or maybe, very optimistically, 1 in 20 with monitored isolation for two weeks when you get there. With the new strain having been transmitted all over the U.K. over Christmas it’s unlikely we’ll be very welcome anywhere for a while.

Zero, get tour money back while possible

Why do you think the odds are in your favour OP? What do you see improving in the next 2 weeks?

This can’t be a serious question.

I'm with the others. Virtually no chance

Zero %

2% chance of going ahead. 98% chance not.

Fucking hell there's being optimistic and there's being naive to the point of ridiculousness.

I think there's very very very little chance of you going. January?! That's like a fortnight away. We're currently on 600 deaths a day. Why would it go ahead?

I'm also optimistic, but having cancelled three trips in 2020 and with the post-Christmas 'bump' of Covid infections due at the time you're due to go, plus your departure from a Tier 4 area, I'd have to say your chances of going are close to zero. There is no way IMO that things are going to get any better unless we have a full, national lockdown again. It's midwinter, we have a new, more contagious Covid variant going around and large numbers of people got together yesterday indoors. Third wave, here we come.

I'd say its very unlikely it'll go ahead, but not impossible.

In your situation, I'd contact the care arrangements people and ask if you cancel now, how likely is it they would be available at short notice if your holiday does go ahead.

If you are tier 2, is it possible to change your flights to be from somewhere not in tier 4?

I would say 0% op. Maybe you can rebook it for later next year.

Zero.

Zero. No chance Finland will allow entry for holiday from UK in January.

Okay, many thanks everyone.

We’ll presume that the tour operator will cancel then and plan accordingly. It is 22 days until our departure which seems a long time in the brave new COVID world but probably not long enough.

If we are the ones to cancel now we would lose our money, as there is currently no official restriction in place for 17 January so we’ll have to wait for them to cancel.

I'm with your DH. No chance. I've got a holiday booked in February and I'm 100% sure it won't happen. Things are going to be worse in January than they are now, I wouldn't be surprised if all foreign travel was stopped soon.

Friends living in Finland have (luckily) a government who takes a very conservative safety-focused view on preventing corona. I do not believe they will allow UK tourists in within January (or until we finally get a grip at some later stage in 2021). I'm sorry, it's a fantastic place to visit, so I hope you get to go in the end.

Finland were not allowing tourists from the UK over the summer. Not a chance now.

I think you're probably not going to Finland in January, sorry.

Sadly I don't think you will e going

Gosh I feel for you, I hate the wait for things to be officially cancelled- the fear they won't be and you'll be rushing round getting things sorted, or that it's going to be so late you can't get on with sorting refunds for other things like prebooked parking or pet kennels.

Assume it won't be happening.

I would also assume that it's not happening.
sorry

0% clearly