To think civil war in the west is impossible

[GoldfishParade]

Yesterday I watched The Social Dilemma and at the very end, the former head of Facebook is asked what his worries are in terms of where he thinks the mass control of peoples mentalities via social media will lead.

He says his biggest fear is civil war.

But considering how much tech and power governments, police, armies have these days AIBU to think civil war in western countries is just impossible? Also civil war between who and why? What's most likely?

I'm wondering if that was just put in at the end to ramp up the drama and get more views (ironic considering the subject matter).

I once heard an intersting idea that the only democracies that have been to war are the Allies against Finland in world war 2 (still havnt worked out if this is true but I think it is)

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow, I suspect live love's post of being carefully worded. Could be wrong though.

I think civil war is possible but highly unlikely

@user1471565182 In IR, this is referred to as the Democratic Peace, usually considered in its dyadic form. Around 13% of conflicts are democracy-democracy; it has a narrow conception of 'war'; and given the shifts since the Cold War, it seems likely that common strategic interests are driving this pattern more than domestic institutions do. It's also hard to define what a 'democracy' is, and it quickly becomes (as some have done on this thread) a codeword for white-majority, rich nation-states.

I don't think it's impossible but I do think people like an easy life and for most life has never been easier. We are fed constant, easy entertainment and choices, mostly have easy access to food, alcohol and fun pastimes, loads of free time. People generally wouldn't want that disrupted. The rest are propping up the above and would probably be too knackered and dispirited to foment.

I do see a European ware within the next 15 years, may start as a civil war within an Eastern European country, but will spread.

I think Bosnia or Kosovo going into the EU would probably do it. The Serbs wont allow that.

And whoever said Yugoslavia was a democracy- it wasnt really. It had been a communist one party state until recently, then the rise of nationalists like Tudjman and Milosevic who took power very much under the illusion of any sort of democracy (milosevic was still calling himself a communist whilst behaving like a nationalist right wing nutcase). There were other parties, but thats that.

The Serbian revolution and Milosevic's removal is a really interesting bit of positive history that went almost ignored in the west. We could and should learn a lot from that- these nationalist, populist semi dictators in the 90s balkans were a vision of things to come all over the world after the cold war.

After Communism fell in Europe the west congratulated themselves endlessly and decided that liberal democracy was some form of untouchable perfect system. Its not looking so good now is it?

It's not looking altogether stable in the Balkans now..so watch this space.

Yesss it was a communist country!!! How could l get that wrong!

What’s happening in the Balkans?

@Penners99

I do see a European ware within the next 15 years, may start as a civil war within an Eastern European country, but will spread.

We also need to keep an eye on Turkey. Cyprus remains a divided Island with a no-man's land policed by the United Nations following the Turkish invasion in the 1970s! Turkey are "behaving" at the moment on the promise of eventual membership of the EU in years to come. If the EU starts to collapse, then Turkey may feel that they've nothing to lose.

Some former Spanish military chiefs wrote to the King of Spain recently offering to safeguard the homeland against the “social-communist government” threatening national unity and cohesion. That’s been reported in the last few weeks and refers to the democratically elected government in Spain. Franco came to power by overthrowing a democratically elected government.

In the same time frame, retired Spanish Air Force chiefs personnel have been discussing the need for the mass murder of many millions of people in Spain to stop the rise of the left and re-establish fascism in government. On WhatsApp.

This is the peace between the wars!

UK is the country most tipped to not exist in 10 years time - and one of the top 10 to have a civil war.

Due to Brexit and the repercussions from Scotland wanting independence and the NI issue.

This are the type of situations that cause civil wars - it does not mean we will have one but we are definitely much much much closer than we were 5 years ago.

@Basecamp65

This is the peace between the wars!

UK is the country most tipped to not exist in 10 years time - and one of the top 10 to have a civil war.

Due to Brexit and the repercussions from Scotland wanting independence and the NI issue.

This are the type of situations that cause civil wars - it does not mean we will have one but we are definitely much much much closer than we were 5 years ago.

“ UK is the country most tipped to not exist in 10 years time - and one of the top 10 to have a civil war.”

Source please?

I think that s the risk...to assume civil war can't happen and become complacent.