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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To think civil war in the west is impossible

141 replies

GoldfishParade · 12/12/2020 07:02

Yesterday I watched The Social Dilemma and at the very end, the former head of Facebook is asked what his worries are in terms of where he thinks the mass control of peoples mentalities via social media will lead.

He says his biggest fear is civil war.

But considering how much tech and power governments, police, armies have these days AIBU to think civil war in western countries is just impossible? Also civil war between who and why? What's most likely?

I'm wondering if that was just put in at the end to ramp up the drama and get more views (ironic considering the subject matter).

OP posts:
LadyAcony · 12/12/2020 10:54

But a war out in the streets within a country in the west? It just seems to me like governments today would have the power to quash that immediately.

Well, look at the riots less than a decade ago and ask yourself why the government didn’t act more harshly than it did to ‘quash them immediately’.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_England_riots

Zilla1 · 12/12/2020 10:57

Do you think the killers and rapists in other civil wars don't exist wherever you are, OP? No one who would have worked in the death camps. Putting aside the killers and rapists who function in your society currently, I've worked with a few people I suspect would rejoice in the chaos and seek to profit from it.

Do you think it would never be in anyone's interest to push for conflict that could lead to a Civil War? Nor to profit from it and encourage it from outside when it starts?

Could there be a spectrum from social conflict with occasional weaponry to militarised conflict?

How long do you think societies remain stable? What do you think is the average of societies, unless you believe in the end of history because of perpetual stability and affluence.

sashh · 12/12/2020 10:58

Northern Ireland, and if we don't get an EU deal we might be back to the 1970s.

The Balkans.

Scotland, they only narrowly voted to stay and that was as part of the EU.

The way this government has treated disabled people it's felt like 1930s Germany for a while now.

Zilla1 · 12/12/2020 11:02

Funny thing about governments, they look stable but it doesn't mean they remain so, nor are monolithic. You can look backwards and assert reasons for why any particular society split (post-colonial instability) but if a group of people, some with outside support, see the opportunity for wealth and power through changing the status quo and gain the means to do so or take the opportunity to sew discord, scapegoat ...

TooTrueToBeGood · 12/12/2020 11:02

I think it's not beyond the realms of possibility in the States at the moment. Something that would have sounded batshit crazy just a few months ago, but now? If Trump were to dig his heels in, and call for his supporters to take up arms to keep him in power, he would get more than just a few coming forward. He certainly seems capable of it and he is not short of deranged believers with guns to make it more than just a spate of manageable riots.

user1471565182 · 12/12/2020 11:04

People a year ago would have said 'realistically' we'll never have another massive global pandemic. What do you think happened in Northern Ireland and the former Yugoslavia?

titchy · 12/12/2020 11:07

@HallFloor

Ooh Year and Years you say? I shall investigate. Sounds just the kind of light entertainment I need atm Grin But I will watch.
Bloody brilliant series!
SunscreenCentral · 12/12/2020 11:08

The Republic of Ireland is in the top 3 most food secure countries in the world, a little known but very important fact.
I can’t think we would allow our brothers and sisters in the North to be hungry if the worst happens.

However what the Tory government have done in threatening the hard-won, fragile peace in the North leaves me speechless.

Livelovebehappy · 12/12/2020 11:12

civilised countries would not have civil wars, but some of the third world backwater countries, of which there are some in Europe, definitely would, whether in the EU or not.

MindyStClaire · 12/12/2020 11:16

@Livelovebehappy

civilised countries would not have civil wars, but some of the third world backwater countries, of which there are some in Europe, definitely would, whether in the EU or not.
Wow.
OneTC · 12/12/2020 11:19

Both the UK and USA have recently seen an effective 50:50 split in factions, which is never the start of something good, half your population feeling hard done by regardless of outcome

Also you seem to think that the technological advantage possessed by governments would make insurgency difficult but in reality it just leads to asymmetric warfare, which many great military powers have fallen in the face of. America and the UK haven't had a great run in major conflicts since WW2 and they've been against people that live in huts

Gensola · 12/12/2020 11:20

LOL of course it isn’t impossible. Look at Northern Ireland

Harryfrog12 · 12/12/2020 11:21

I think about this and agree op.
Anyone mentioning belfast etc.. this was long before internet took hold of the world.
Many terrorist attacks are put a stop to before they can happen. I dont beleive 911 would have been able to happen today. Although, maybe that was the big shock the west needed to be how we are today.
However, even though i dont think civil war could happen. I do think there will be a massive shift in politics in our lifetime. I think no.10 and the house will be long gone before i am

Harryfrog12 · 12/12/2020 11:22

America is a different story though

user1471565182 · 12/12/2020 11:30

There was no internet at the time of 9/11?

mumwon · 12/12/2020 11:31

Ukraine? (Orchestrated by Russia but still)

MindyStClaire · 12/12/2020 11:35

@Harryfrog12

I think about this and agree op. Anyone mentioning belfast etc.. this was long before internet took hold of the world. Many terrorist attacks are put a stop to before they can happen. I dont beleive 911 would have been able to happen today. Although, maybe that was the big shock the west needed to be how we are today. However, even though i dont think civil war could happen. I do think there will be a massive shift in politics in our lifetime. I think no.10 and the house will be long gone before i am
In December 2012, Belfast city council voted to only fly the Union Jack in designated days. This lead to widespread protests which included bricks being thrown, a politician's office being repeatedly attacked and iirc a police Landover being fire bombed. I was on a driving lesson on one of the first nights of the unrest and we had bricks thrown through the windows of the car, very lucky to get away mostly unscathed.

It being 2012, the protests were of course organised over FB and Twitter.

Over a flag. What do you think something like a no deal Brexit or massive recession could do.

mumwon · 12/12/2020 11:40

if you go into the vicious swamp world of Twitter civil war in USA seems not unlikely. Some of the threats by (republican) politicians to state employees for not doing something which is actually outside of their remit if not actually illegal & the FBI/police don't seem to do anything is scary - over 100 ROP were going with Texas on their legal action against states who voted for Biden (thanks to Supreme Court for saying nonsense) & Trumps comments since. Things like; would you be loyal enough to give your life or someone needs to be shot.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 12/12/2020 11:43

I grind the far right Brexit mob in the U.K. terrifying. They’ve got their way, but they are still angry and violent.

Harryfrog12 · 12/12/2020 11:45

No internet as the way it is today. No one can deny its completely changed in the last 20 years

Harryfrog12 · 12/12/2020 11:50

@MindyStClaire
Protests are entirely legal and there is always a chance it can turn.
Civil unrest possible
Civil war i dont beleive is especially in uk
This is not to say that groups wont try though. I just think i see alot of talk on social media that civil war will break out if things continue as they are. Things will continue as they are and people will adapt and move on

shallbe · 12/12/2020 12:04

civilised countries would not have civil wars, but some of the third world backwater countries, of which there are some in Europe, definitely would, whether in the EU or not.

Holy. Shit.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 12/12/2020 12:10

I define Britain as a third world backwater country at the moment though!😁

sergeilavrov · 12/12/2020 12:12

The police, security services and surveillance opportunities are far weaker in the West than they are in certain other regions. Even then, civil war can occur at a higher tipping point for en masse mobilization. Democracies are less likely to see civil conflict because people have other, predictable and regular opportunities to further their opinions. This is why most civil wars in democracies occur with those disenfranchised from the system.

I work in security and conflict, and cyber is a frontier of conflict that is more damaging than people imagine. You say it’s not the same as bombings, but if you interfere with oxygen supply going into hospitals; take planes out of the sky; withhold food through ransacking logistics systems - you can cause incredible damage that is far more difficult to detect before the fact.

hopingforonlychild · 12/12/2020 12:15

@GoldfishParade I am a bit lol about Singapore being western. Singapore blatantly rejects western style civil liberties, no freedom of assembly or freedom of speech.the locals are westernised to a large extent- not that they appreciate democracy but that they are more individualistic in their outlook than in other Asian countries.