To think these are the stats noone talks about

[TMIincoming]

Just that really. Deaths aren't really any higher than usual and hospital beds are less occupied than usual. Or are people going to say these figures aren't accurate

Pablo if you read this link www.cebm.net/covid-19/public-health-england-death-data-revised/ you'll see that the new criteria do indeed skew the number of deaths - just not in the direction you seem to think.

I am always very sceptical whenever I see figures that would appear to support my own beliefs - because it is far too easy to focus on the things that confirm what we believe to be true than to pay attention to the things that challenge our beliefs and cause us to review them.

Which is daft, because statistics are such that you would always be able to find some to support both points of view.

I suspect these charts fall somewhere into the truth, but are not the whole truth. Like most things.

The game of "what if we'd done something differently" has been played since the dawn on mankind. In every single instance, the answer is that we do not know for sure what would have happened if we'd have done things differently.

Still means the car crash example, or the one Ian Duncan Smith quoted are counted as COVID deaths though.

Granted some of them get revised months later, but the figure published each day is very clearly “deaths within 28 days of a positive test”. That is VERY different to deaths caused by COVID.

Likewise people in hospital with COVID, is massively different to people in hospital because of COVID. But guess which one is reported every day.

@pointythings

Pablo if you read this link www.cebm.net/covid-19/public-health-england-death-data-revised/ you'll see that the new criteria do indeed skew the number of deaths - just not in the direction you seem to think.

That says the cases from earlier in the year were not as high as first thought it didn’t alter the fact that anybody today, yesterday or right back to august passes away with a positive test result regardless of how they died gets added on to the covid death toll. Let’s agree to disagree as you seem to think I’m a covid disbeliever which couldn’t be further from the truth I am simply frustrated with the governments handling of everything since the initial epidemic back in April, all I am looking at is the exact figures from ons, phe which don’t paint the same picture as what Boris and his 2 sidekicks tell us every night.

YANBU.
But you won’t get much support here. Honestly the only illness many people care about is COVID, no sympathy with suicides going through the roof for example.

I don’t think we have good evidence yet for suicides going through the roof.

The only narrative so far to bring together international data doesn’t support that

www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352

and anecdatally, 😊 my personal experience has been that in that respect things are not busier than in normal times (I monitor some of the national trauma database information).

There are lots of possible reasons why my experience might not reflect the overall picture, for example if there is more use of lethal means resulting in more deaths at home. But it is still surprising we have not seen more major trauma or overdose presentations.)

It also usually takes about 5 months from completed suicide to inquest, so it may be just too early to see changes in rates.

Having said all of that, I fully agree that covid is getting press/investment that no other infectious disease has done in recent times. Roughly 1.5 million people died from TB last year and on average there are about 10,000 neonatal deaths from malaria (both treatable), and I saw very few people giving a shit abojt that.

Ffs. COVID deaths are not being included with other deaths. If you died in a car crash COVID would not be on your death certificate. Aldi are serioigoong to run out of tin foil soon!

It doesn’t really take much intelligence to see that, there are less risky activities taking place = reduction in accident related deaths, many who were vulnerable to death from eg flu probably died in the first wave = less deaths now.

Less drinking/people out and about = less assaults/murders.

I’m sorry it doesn’t fit in with the average mumsnet tees bleating about how the Tory government is to blame for everything and st Keir would have done so much better.

Round here nhs staff state that the hospitals are fuller than ever, they have better treatments available now but otherwise the death rates would be higher than the first wave

Theres no evidence currently that suicides are 'through the roof' it's a very typical year so far as we have the data for. I suspect that there will be an increase in suicide next year due to economic impact of covid (as seem in the 80s and mid 90s) but we are not seeing that yet.

@Sparklfairy you can’t teach the stupid though sadly.

Also this is an average MRI and Pinderfields in West Yorkshire are really struggling and they don’t think it’s peaked yet as they’re seeing admissions and deaths of patients who picked up the virus prior to this lockdown.

Give a source that says they aren’t

You are kind of right but not completely.

The figures released daily cover everyone who has died within 28 days of a positive test regardless of cause of death. This gives them a quick figure. It will include some who have died of other causes but it excludes some who died of Covid-19 without a positive test.

The ONS figures released weekly cover only people where the death certificate mentions Covid-19 as one of the causes. Doctors do not list Covid-19 as the cause unless it is genuinely a cause. If they give a false cause of death, they are committing a criminal offence.

For the week ending 13th November, the daily figures give a total of 2,849 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. For the same week, the ONS shows 2,838 deaths where Covid-19 is given as one of the causes.

I've used the most recent week for which ONS figures are available. In other weeks the two figures are close. Some weeks the ONS figure is higher than the deaths within 28 days figure, some weeks it is lower.

Overall, since the start of the pandemic, 55,838 people have died in the UK within 28 days of a positive test. In the same time period, 66,713 people have died in the UK with Covid-19 named on the death certificate as a cause of death.

So yes, the daily figures include deaths from other causes. But they are not a huge overestimate of the number of deaths caused by the disease. If anything, they are an underestimate.

Not read whole thread yet but initial thoughts.
Re beds numbers of surgeries will be down due to infection control so less patients needs critical care beds. Plus during 1st wave theatres were turned into ITU beds. Watching hospital the other week also gave the impression they had temporary additional ICU beds right now.
Re deaths many who would have died this winter were already taken by COVID. Remember excess deaths were double the norm back in March/April

The restrictions are obviously helping although over 600 deaths today.

The facts are simple, we will never know the true numbers. Those diagnosed or died.

My county has recorded no deaths from covid in six weeks, before that there had been no deaths four months. Yet every week there are deaths in the paper attributed to covid. That's well outside the 28 day cut off to be counted in the stats. How many other places are the same? A neighbouring county has no hospital, their patients all go to England. They don't count in Welsh stats. Nor do they count in England either...

Stats tell whatever people want them to.

50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017/18 - the highest recorded since winter 1975/76. From week 40 2017 to week 15 2018. Not much different to this year. We didn’t lock everyone up then.
Caused by a failed flu vaccine.
COVID probably will result in more excess deaths when the year is up and that was with restrictions. Imagine how much higher it would be if left to rip through

My family members funeral was today, she died of covid, fought for over six months. The investigation into her death won't take place for months and it's only then her death will "count in these stats" because she took too long to die.

She's not alone. On the ward she was on none of them had tested positive within 28 days, it was a covid ward, but wasn't allowed to be called that, helps keep the numbers low.

Our hospital is full of patients, most with covid according to staff. Our Cecil's gold command team say there's only two in there with covid. The local rag was going to print a story about it until some Drs went on social media to put them right (I worked with them they were genuine). Now the article has been removed and replaced.

Stats lie.

@midnightstar66

Even if they are correct they are the same despite us living in varying degrees of restrictions for the best part of 9 months and many are now well in to another lockdown. Were we living a normal life would they be far higher? Most likely!

They're not correct (the excess deaths are higher than usual) - but, you're right as well.

However, we're not supposed to point that out on here. Nor are we meant to care about the vulnerable aka The Others aka The Expendables.

And, the NHS is splashing out on Long Covid clinics for a bit of fun (there you go RaspberryCoulis... and, I'll say it again especially for you....Long Covid!!! ).

We're 'scaremomgering sheeple' who want to control everybody (and all the birds) by vaccine chips directed by remote control...

Health aside, there's the economy to think about too. Economic experts from Deutsche Bank recently warned about the devastating consequences of uncontained Covid.

Still, let's just ignore the world's economic, scientific, and medical experts and listen to Trump instead...

@Becca19962014
I'm sorry for your loss

@Isntdivorcefun

Who in the uk dies of COVID without Without a positive test?

They test everyone who goes into hospital for any reason! What planet are you living on?

How do you think people are catching Covid in hospitals (which many are)? People talk of false positives. Experts estimate false negatives to be as high as 27%. Nearly 30% is a lot of missed cases.

What’s the point of eking out a few more years of life stuck in and unable to do your social activities etc. It’s beyond miserable for millions of people

OP do you have any idea how utterly offensive and downright ableist that statement is? You are basically saying that the lives of those with long term chronic illness and disability who are housebound are simply not worth living. Therefore they are expendable and obviously would just prefer to get covid and die.

Well, cheers for that.