To think these are the stats noone talks about

[TMIincoming]

Just that really. Deaths aren't really any higher than usual and hospital beds are less occupied than usual. Or are people going to say these figures aren't accurate

When I see things like this I wonder why teaching about critical thinking and how to manipulate with statistics isn't compulsory at school.

I despair at the lack of thinking here.
Even on the second graph, you can see that excess deaths is very high over the peak and is currently climbing, but no, it "proves" deaths are no more-except there have so far been around 70k excess deaths this year. Must be due to an allergy to leap years or something.

You're talking about them

@Witchend

When I see things like this I wonder why teaching about critical thinking and how to manipulate with statistics isn't compulsory at school.

I despair at the lack of thinking here.
Even on the second graph, you can see that excess deaths is very high over the peak and is currently climbing, but no, it "proves" deaths are no more-except there have so far been around 70k excess deaths this year. Must be due to an allergy to leap years or something.

Thank goodness somebody else pointed this out. The death rate is climbing at the end is is bound to end up over the maximum line, that is clear to see

If you think it’s all a conspiracy, for god knows what reason because nothing good can come of making this up, that’s fine, you carry on thinking that but ffs just wash your hands, distance and wear a mask. It doesn’t hurt you to do this and if it turns out you’re wrong well, at least you won’t have any guilt or be the cause of more infections. Same way, if it turns out I’m wrong and this is all a hoax well, I’ve nothing to feel guilty about either because I followed guidelines and kept others safe even if that turns out to be a lie I was doing thing a for a good reason. You can believe in whatever conspiracy you want to, just follow those three guidelines and then at the end of it all it doesn’t matter who was right or wrong because no one deliberately put anyone else at risk. Time to grow up a bit I think.

Here is a much more nuanced article looking at the capacity of critical care beds.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/20/specialist-staff-critical-care-beds-winter-nhs-covid
Another factor is that length of stay for patients with COVID tends to be much longer than for eg a patient recovering post op. So you can have the same numbers of beds but much less flexibility if there is extra demand .

On your second graph, the death figures are about the same as week 12. Look what happened next. What makes you think that wouldn’t happen again?

And yes maybe the ‘virus would have peaked’ if we had left it to run its course. But you know what that peak means, don’t you? Not just a point on a graph but actual people ill and dying? People who might survive now as we have bought some time and have better treatments. Or people who may never get the virus at all if we can just keep going until we have a vaccine.

TMIincoming
If we were living a normal life would the virus have peaked and things be pretty much back to normal by now? Most likely!

Sweden didn’t go into lockdown and case numbers there are surging.

If you look at the current figures, Witchend is right, it’s already over the highest.

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fweeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales%2f2020/publishedweek452020.xlsx

I’ve added a couple of lines in yellow (you’ll need to stretch it to see it).

FWIW, what seems to be scaring GPs and PNs/ANPs here is the long COVID impacting on several previously healthy, relatively young colleagues. I've not seen statistics to understand whether the numbers are an anomaly but even if you have no interest in the health and well-being of older people, seeing people in their twenties and thirties you've worked with for years (hopefully temporarily) completely screwed concentrates the mind.

But OP if you present people on here with facts what on earth will they start sobbing and shaking about?!

as pp have stated covid patients have far longer stays in hospital than virtually all other medical/surgical patients
These days very few patients stay longer than a week
(Exceptions & exceptional circumstances happen but they are rare looking at you dh & thank god that it was in early winter 2019!)
www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/22/nhs-patients-at-risk-as-icus-routinely-understaffed-doctors-warn
looks like you cherry pick or ignore authoritative answers given by people who work in or are personally connected to hospitals or medicine

& re your chart - we have been in lock down for several weeks & we are still getting high daily casualty rates & high infections - the question is how long after the lock down will the numbers start to surge again - the risk is there compounded by winter illnesses & accidents

@Zilla1 I think the number suggested so far was well into the thousands & that's not counting people who have other side effects ie gastrointestinal, hearing loss, strokes heart & lung damage -those numbers have yet to be counted

@TMIincoming A single snapshot for Nov 8th isn't enough. If the R number had been below 1 then you would have been right, but it wasn't. The trend in infections was upwards and projected to rise exponentially if there was no lockdown.

@brusselsprouting

Having lost a healthy, young relative in the last few weeks to COVID, who having had the flu in recent years and barely needed a few days to recover, I think YABU, this is entirely needed, and isn’t just like any other year. Have some compassion to those who have lost loved ones, the statistics are so much more than just numbers, and unfortunately until it’s close to home, I don’t think you’ll truly appreciate the effect of this virus.

I didn't say it was like any other year. I was making the point that statistics can be interpreted in many ways, and that the press spin is always on disaster.

I also lost a grandparent and two good friends in the same care home in March, and have had covid myself. I still thi k the restrictions are way over the top and based on scaremongering rather than real risks

I have my own conspiracy theory concerning the kind of people who frequently ("nobody's talking about it" indeed) post threads of this kind.

I suppose Dominic has to keep himself busy while he's waiting for the job applications to filter through.

@Quietlyloud

If you think it’s all a conspiracy, for god knows what reason because nothing good can come of making this up, that’s fine, you carry on thinking that but ffs just wash your hands, distance and wear a mask. It doesn’t hurt you to do this and if it turns out you’re wrong well, at least you won’t have any guilt or be the cause of more infections. Same way, if it turns out I’m wrong and this is all a hoax well, I’ve nothing to feel guilty about either because I followed guidelines and kept others safe even if that turns out to be a lie I was doing thing a for a good reason. You can believe in whatever conspiracy you want to, just follow those three guidelines and then at the end of it all it doesn’t matter who was right or wrong because no one deliberately put anyone else at risk. Time to grow up a bit I think.

Where did anyone say its a conspiracy? Where did anyone say it was just like any other year? Where did anyone say deaths weren't going to keep going up over winter?

Point is if the figures were reported accurately there would be a lot less support for the measures being taken. Thats all

@firstevernamechange

I absolutely agree, PP. I'm very cynical about this lockdown, it's aims and timings (announced after a week of stagnating new infections). It's difficult to have this kind of discussion online (#killinggrannies), but my work means lots of in depth 1-1 conversation with a broad spectrum of society and people are a lot more honest in that setting people tend to be a little more open.

Could please tell me what you think the aims of this lockdown are, and why you are sceptical about the timings?

Bed closures due to outbreaks on wards. Wards closed to new admissions to control the outbreak and reduce further spread.
Planned operations stopped as staff are redeployed to cover staff absences.
Staffing crises due to so many staff off sick or isolating.
The nhs in many areas of the country is struggling. Staff are exhausted physically and mentally.

Personally I think children's activities for primary aged children shpuld still be going. I have a good sense of perspective even though I'm vulnerable. I was in our Liverpool Royal hospital on Friday. My Consultants saved my life, many have been awarded OBEs for their work globally. I trust them at other times, so why wouldn't I now? They tell my that it's true, that Liverpool admissions are up and if the pubs were open they wouldn't cope.

Have you got any experience of A&Es on a Weekend? The associated drug taking and drug/drink driving etc would mean that our hospitals were full to capacity.

There may be areas of the country that don't need restrictions in the same way, but when Liverpool went into lock down people were travelling to Southport/Warrington/Manchester etc for nights, out so it was counter productive.

I think we need a better strategy for health appointments and services, I don't understand why the services are so poor and I think there's a lot of empty excuses.

What restrictions do you want and what don't you want?

Are the aims mutually exclusive or is there an ur-conspiracy that combines vaccines enabling human tracking, wrecking businesses and economy to make everyone more dependent on government, trial-running lockdown for alien invasion, testing the public's capacity for being controlled.. [help, have I forgotten anything?]

@RaspberryCoulis

I give it 5 posts before someone says "covidiot" "murdering grannies" or "long Covid"

But yanbu Op

Well, I'll bite. I've had long covid now for getting on for eight months. I spent four days last week hammered with fatigue. Before this I was running 5 and 10ks regularly. I'm 31, and I had a fairly mild initial infection.

I really don't recommend getting the virus, even if you're young and healthy. I don't see how that's fair to equate with murdering granny mania.

Well they would probably be a hell of a lot higher without any restrictions. It’s a catch 22- more restrictions= fewer deaths but also more people saying we don’t need restrictions because people aren’t dying.

[quote isitsnowingyet]@sst1234 - join forces with the OP and sort it out.

The rest of us are too hysterical to think.[/quote]

TMIincoming I could have been more clear but my comment was a general one. Not directed to you. And there are certainly people who are denying it.