To ask if Biden has definitely won?

[bluewanda]

He has, right? Joe Biden is the new POTUS!

Have North Carolina officially declared yet?

Not according to Associated Press - apparently the count's 94% reported and it's currently 50.1 to 48.7 per cent in Trump's favour

Trump could still win if he gets Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and then either of Arizona or Nevada.

@Inkpaperstars Biden already got Arizona, hours ago!

Live speech now:

Biden: We have enough votes for 270. I'm not going to declare but I do think when all the votes are in, we will be the winners.

78% of postal votes cast in Pennsylvania have gone to Biden so far......

@Theyweretheworstoftimes The USPS angle is going to be an interesting one. While we may anticipate Trump using that angle as a talking point, it's unlikely his campaign will file suits regarding this unless he tangibly loses a state involved. This is because those ballots are more likely to skew Democrat, given the partisan concerns about COVID-19 across the US and the Republican underfunding of USPS in the build up to this election (geographic modelling suggests these funding changes disproportionately impacted urban areas, despite these being the more profitable components). I think that heuristically, we can view suits filed around this issue from the Republican party as quite a serious loss they didn't anticipate when building a path to the Electoral College.

@christinarossetti19

Michigan is looking pretty secure for Biden. Nearly all votes counted and Biden over 1% ahead.

Then he needs Nevada who won't be declaring for many hours.

Trump will take Georgia, Pennsylvania and Alaska. Without Nevada won't get to the 270 needed.

Have North Carolina officially declared yet?

Trump is highly unlikely to win Pennsylvania. His lead is evaporating and a lot of urban and postal votes are left. More than enough to give Biden a win. I think Biden will win by perhaps 100,000 votes... possibly more.

Arizona has been “called” but it’s count is not yet finished and finalised.

North Carolina potentially in play. For Biden.

DH was running the figures and thought mid afternoon that about 65 - 70% of postals going to Biden could flip it. Its now been said NC is too close to call after it earlier being thought to be going red.

Watch closely, because it might mean issues in other states might be irrelevant if it goes blue.

Arizona is getting very close again to.

I remember when Bush declared himself the winner in 2000. Couldn't believe what I was hearing. What the fuck kind of election is that???

*too or though :)

Arizona has been “called” but it’s count is not yet finished and finalised.

That’s just a technicality. Biden has won Arizona.

I expected it to be close, but when it was reported that it's the biggest voter turnout in 100 years I expected Biden to win by a landslide. I'm shocked at how many people actually want Trump in charge.

I agree people aren't really voting for Biden. People are either voting against Trump (for Biden) or for Trump. This election is the Trump election. His ego will be thrilled.

I'm loving how ungracious Trump is being about losing. He's making such a fool of himself. I do hope there's no violence, Trump would relish riots in his name.

I think the democratic party have a lot of good young figures, but they are very young and wont be around for the top stuff for another 15 years. those hovering around the 50 year old mark arnt anything to particularly get excited about. They possibly got too comfortable during the obama years.

COME ON JOE!!!

@JingsMahBucket Racism may influence some people, but I personally think it's more to do with the Democrats ignoring the needs of their traditional base for so long that they swung towards Trump.

I've driven through parts of Pennsylvania and the Mid-West that are truly depressing places, boarded-up houses, no jobs or resources for residents. I live in a Democratic stronghold and the city is so poorly run, with cases of corruption in the City Council regularly hitting the headlines.

I think some people got desperate and voted for anyone who might change things...and look what happened!

That's why I personally think the Democrats need to shake up their leadership (maybe get rid of some of the old guard?) and come up with an inspiring candidate for 2024.

@Dongdingdong

Arizona has been “called” but it’s count is not yet finished and finalised.

That’s just a technicality. Biden has won Arizona.

It's a lot more than a technicality.

Fox surprised everyone by calling Arizona for Biden and have been attacked by Trump and the Republicans for doing so. No other news organisation has called Arizona yet. It is a very close race and at the moment, with 86% of the vote counted, is too close to call. It looks like Biden will win Arizona but it is a long way from being certain.

The leading US election statistician just said it's unlikely but not impossible that Trump could win

@pigsDOfly

No, very unlikely it will be overturned as he'll have no legal reason for them to overturn it.

I don't think Biden will accept the dumping of uncounted votes either.

Trump won't go quietly though and a great many of his supporter are going to want to see America burn before they accept his loss. And he'll be egging them on.

It's not going to be pretty.

Yes I think it's going to get very ugly unless the more sensible Republicans can talk Trump down. Trump is doing everything to make his supporters believe that Biden is stealing the election. It's outrageous and we can only hope the Democrats, and Republicans that care about democracy stop him.

Actually I like Andrew Yang.

No other news organisation has called Arizona yet.

I agree that it’s more than a technicality but this isn’t true. AP called for Biden, several hours after Fox, admittedly.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/explainer-why-ap-called-arizona-for-biden-donald-trump-joe-biden-arizona-maricopa-county-ap-b1583189.html

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he needs 3 other states. If he loses Pennsylvania, he needs to win all other states still to declare. Biden could win Pennsylvania and another state or lose Pennsylvania and take Michigan snd Nevada. So Biden is more likely to win

@VaggieMight We actually have frameworks to assess the likelihood of post-election violence, specific to the US. Critical factors are the responses of politicians (in leadership positions), perceived electoral legitimacy, use of force by armed government groups, public sentiment and media, and external influences. We're watching Trump's family closely, while ordinarily they would not be regarded in the first category, this is a different playing field. Two weeks ago, the US government stoplossed US army and national guard members and brought them into cities like Austin today in case of violence. This is unusual, at least in my career: questions need to be asked about whether this is a response, or a trigger.

We did see armed militias at many polling places, but generally in Republican stronghold areas. This doesn't seem particularly strategic, and so only caused minimal fuss. More serious incidents included the celebration of the 'Trump Train' incident in Texas.

@AmandaHoldensLips

I was only 11 when that happened, but having looked at it all as an adult, I'm gobsmacked that it played out the way it did. Al Gore called him to concede, way too early, then had to call back to say he wasnt giving up, then there came the legal challengers but the Democrats didnt fight it properly. A whole load of press outlets clubbed together to pay to have recounts done properly, taking into account any possible challenge to see who would have won in every possible challenge of different ballots etc and every single time, Al Gore won it. But that consolidation wasnt finished until a week after 9/11 and no one wanted to publicise or say that Bush was illegitimate during a time of crisis. If the democrats had challenged properly, the information would have been collated months beforehand and a challenge could have won. I cant get over it; grew up watching Bush when it should have been the democrats.

@LaurieFairyCake

The leading US election statistician just said it's unlikely but not impossible that Trump could win

I think he is right. As things stand Biden is favourite to win but, with several close races and a likely recount in Wisconsin, it is still possible that it will go the other way. And, of course, there is the possibility that Trump will try to take things to the Supreme Court which is currently split 6-3 in favour of the Republicans. That doesn't necessarily mean the court would decide to weight the scales in Trump's favour but the possibility cannot be ruled out.