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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To ask if Biden has definitely won?

682 replies

bluewanda · 04/11/2020 19:20

He has, right? Joe Biden is the new POTUS!

OP posts:
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Tfoot75 · 06/11/2020 16:00

On the chances of Trump winning any legal action based on technicalities in the vote - any supreme Court that ruled in favour of the candidate that did not win the popular vote is totally corrupt surely - if they did that it should quite rightly cause global uproar as that's the opposite of democracy and justice surely. I find the whole system totally bamboozling.

Tfoot75 · 06/11/2020 16:04

Janus Pennsylvania should finish counting today (and Georgia but they have confirmed a recount already) but may be into the night UK time. I would expect one of the agencies to maybe call it after the next batch of votes though - calling Pennsylvania will call the result then as Biden has 284 or 273 votes depending on who you're following!

sergeilavrov · 06/11/2020 16:06

@desnol Let’s talk about legal challenges, and break them down a little.

First, let’s be clear about legal challenges that have been submitted - and legal challenges he is threatening. He can threaten as many legal challenges as he likes, but it’s likely many of these won’t happen because there are tight pursestrings in play and the campaign must may for these, and any subsequent recounts in most states. In addition, some of the legal challenges the campaign suggested early make less sense for the campaign, as they would potentially risk the votes they now desperately have to hope are there to get any hope of re-flipping states.

Pennsylvania: On November 5, the Trump campaign filed a claim that poll observers were being denied access to the ballot count in Philadelphia with a federal judge. This claim was denied, as the witness the campaign brought forward admitted he could see the ballots being counted. The judge outlined an important distinction: observers are there to observe, not audit, so don’t need to see what is on each ballot. They did succeed in getting a Pennsylvania appeals court to order special handling of ballots for which missing voter ID information is supplied between Nov. 9 and Nov. 12. This will backfire, as the Trump campaign needs those votes to be counted AND contain a large margin of Republican ballots for them to turn PA or get close enough to get a recount. This is because none of those ballots had been counted yet, due to concerns about whether they would be accepted. Other legal moves in PA include trying to exclude provisional ballots cast after voters were given defective ones (on and before Election Day); and five random suits that want counting stopped until ‘meaningful transparency’ is available. Note, this is him asking to stop the count of votes cast BEFORE the close of voting. No legal definition of this was provided, and they will be dismissed. If you’re concerned about whether ballots are being treated appropriately in PA, here is a livestream where everyone can be an observer. I’ll warn you, it’s very very boring.

In most states, ballots mailed on or before Election Day count. There is significant legislation in place to allow for this, and this became important because of the targeted underfunding of USPS that removed sufficient mail services across a lot of Democrat areas in the build up to the election. The issue you refer to is in PA, and occurred when a deadlocked U.S. Supreme Court declined to overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s decision to extend the mail-in ballot deadline. That decision allowed ballots received by Nov. 6 to be counted, and also allows non-timestamped ballots to be accepted within 3 days of Election Day. Again, doesn’t matter, as those votes haven’t been counted yet and are likely to skew democrat - this lawsuit simply cements his PA loss. However, unsure why you think is a problem for the US Supreme Court, as this is already resolved? His tweets on the matter have been blocked on Twitter because they misinform the public and may have been used to discourage people from sending in their ballots in the days before and the day of the election.

Michigan: On November 4th, Trump’s campaign filed a suit to stop counting (again, the state hadn’t started on late ballots postmarked before Election Day yet) just before urban votes were to be counted. They wanted, again, "meaningful access" for campaign poll watchers to the counting of state ballots, plus access to videotaped surveillance of ballot drop boxes installed around the state from October onwards. The Judge pointed out that vote counting had been completed, so there was no more access to be given, and a previous directive was already in place that allowed them access (this was at first not clear, as COVID restrictions in Michigan meant observers refusing to wear masks were not being admitted.) The judge threw out the request for ballot box surveillance, as there was no legal claim as to why this needed to be passed over.

The legal issue you raise about ballots being delivered isn’t true. All registered voters in some states were sent mail-in ballots, as per state policy (California, Nevada, New Jersey and Vermont). They didn’t exclude anyone. Others sent all registered voters a vote-by-mail application as a way of encouraging them to choose mail voting over heading to the polls. The only variation you see is in states like Montana, which ruled to allow counties to determine how they would run this, so counties taking COVID more seriously opted for sending out ballots, but again - to every registered voter). There is no reason for this to be looked at by the courts, and it would be a bizarre play from the Trump campaign, as that variation happened largely in Republican strongholds.

There has been one case of electoral fraud in Nevada, reported to the appropriate agencies. This was a case were a Republican registered voter attempted to submit two ballots for Trump. He was caught, thanks to Nevada’s careful cross-examination of each ballot (hence why their count is slow) and only one vote was registered. Media reporting in the US has been quite clear on these issues, unless you watched the first day of Fox coverage or people are assessing the situation from GOP twitter accounts. Sadly, many are.

Parker231 · 06/11/2020 16:07

Trump on Twitter - great comment about your voters!

“ Philadelpiha has got a rotten history on election integrity.”

ListeningQuietly · 06/11/2020 18:05

SCOTUS have tweeted that they do not expect to be involved in the election outcome Grin

Come on PA, you can call it soon.

prh47bridge · 06/11/2020 18:06

Trump doesn't want to stop the counting of votes, he wants to stop votes cast after the election is closed, or postal votes which arrive beyond the end of the voting close

Yes, he does. No state is counting votes cast after the election closed. He wants to stop postal votes being counted in those states where he won in voting on the day but believes postal votes will give the state to Biden. Note that he is not challenging in Arizona where postal votes may help him overhaul Biden.

Trump is asking a valid question here - there is a huge opportunity for electoral fraud here

No, Trump is not and you are wrong about the Constitution. The Constitution is completely silent on the subject. The deadline for postal votes is entirely a matter for state law. Some states require the ballot to arrive by a certain time on election day, others only require the ballot to be postmarked by election day. There is a case before the Supreme Court where the Republicans are trying to block the decision of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to extend the deadline for accepting postal ballots. The Supreme Court has twice refused to overturn the Pennsylvania Supreme Court's decision and refused a request from the Republicans to hear the case again before election day. As no state accepts postal ballots posted after election day, your suggestion that they should have extended the period for in-person voting is entirely fanciful.

A seond legal issue being raised is that in some states, a lot of postal ballots were delivered to households in their millions - unsolicited. The normal procedure is that the person who wants a postal vote asks for it. It seems that these millions of Postal Votes forms were delivered unsolicited in a very selective way, i.e. to voters more likely to vote for one party than another.

That is a straight lie invented by Trump. There is no legal action in progress based on this fantasy. Many states automatically send a postal ballot to every registered voter. Other states require the voter to request a ballot. There is no evidence at all that the distribution was in any way selective other than the fact that Republican voters are more likely to be registered before the day of the election and hence were more likely to receive a ballot.

Additionally, another court case hinges on that the Repulblican Party representatives were not given access to the vote counting process in some districts - and they should have been

Again, wrong. There has been some legal action requesting access but every single case has been thrown out as the Republicans had to admit that they had been given the access required by law. They did manage a small success with a case where they asked the court to permit them to stand within a certain distance of those counting the vote but that decision was overturned on appeal.

I don't understand why the media are not explaining this clearly

Because so much of what you say is simply wrong. Trump's lawsuits are going very badly. So far, despite all Trump's bluster, his campaign has yet to produce any evidence of fraud.

prh47bridge · 06/11/2020 18:07

Cross posted with Sergeilavrov

CanSomeoneElsePickMyName · 06/11/2020 18:28

Well said @prh47bridge

Fridgeandkitchen · 06/11/2020 18:37

Ive just watched the start of the news. Trump supporters armed, praying, crying. It’s like something from a movie.

charlottemont · 06/11/2020 18:39

@Tfoot75

CNN has called the race now, other outlets waiting for next result from PA. I feel quite emotional! I'm not even American Grin
I am American, and I feel quite emotional!! It's like a four year national nightmare is finally ending. It won't actually be over for quite some time because of the damage Trump has done to our institutions and the division he created, but at least we are back on the right track. I have so much hope. Biden is not perfect, but he is a good and decent man who will be the president for the whole country, not just his supporters.
sergeilavrov · 06/11/2020 18:40

I think the statement just released from the White House suggests Trump knows the GOP are leaving him behind and looking toward 2024, not very like him... "This is not just about this election, it's about every election and the integrity of our election system." Apparently his aides have gone with convincing him to launch a "real news" channel as a way of talking him down from demanding victory.

ListeningQuietly · 06/11/2020 18:40

I am American, and I feel quite emotional!! It's like a four year national nightmare is finally ending. It won't actually be over for quite some time because of the damage Trump has done to our institutions and the division he created, but at least we are back on the right track. I have so much hope. Biden is not perfect, but he is a good and decent man who will be the president for the whole country, not just his supporters.

Hear hear

user1471565182 · 06/11/2020 18:43

Its interesting to see right wingers just keep piling on the lies as its worked before and their weird behaviour on seeing that it doesnt work anymore, even on this and other threads. And then on top of that suddenly pretending to develop a concern about Biden supposed (made up) paedophillia and sexual behaviour after they turned a blind eye to trumps epstein friendship and rape of his ex wife for years.

user1471565182 · 06/11/2020 18:51

Ive just realised this will be the first woman vice president.

ListeningQuietly · 06/11/2020 18:52

I do hope that MNHQ become a lot less tolerant of some of the Qanon misogynist conspiracy stuff that has been slipped into the site under cover of Trump.

The idea of Social Media was to bring people together
not to tearthem asunder

Desnol · 06/11/2020 19:00

@sergeilavrov - thanks, that's very informative. Now why can't the media explain these things as you just did?

I got most of the information from watching press releases and interviews, and even from knowledgeable posters on websites like Financial Times, but of course they can't be complete.

I'll forgo the link to the live-stream - that would be too much even for me!

Blocking Tweets on the grounds that they might misinform the public - that's a terrible decision. You could ban 99% of the TV stations on the same justification. People are intelligent enough to decide for themselves - not all, but most. That just smacks of censorship and shouldn't be allowed. Remember the quote "You can fool some of the people all of the time, all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time". No reasonable human being wants someone else to decide what they are allowed to know and what they're not allowed to know. People can make their own assessments.

As far as I am concerned, I'm not going to get bored any time soon. This election is turning out to be even more interesting and dramatic than watching the Kavenaugh Supreme Court interrogations - they were televised over here too.

You seem to know a lot about this - so can I ask a question? I just watched the press conferences from Philadelphia, they were referring to something called "segregated votes" - what are they?

Parker231 · 06/11/2020 19:09

A state judge in Pennsylvania ordered election officials on Thursday to segregate some mail-in ballots with voter identification issues after the Trump campaign challenged an extended deadline allowing voters to correct them through November 12, calling into question whether those votes would count as Pennsylvania’s presidential race continues to narrow.

sergeilavrov · 06/11/2020 19:13

@desnol- I think the media, in fairness, are explaining these things. We’ve got NBC, Fox and CNN on here and they’ve all covered this. 538 (ABC), CNN online, Bloomberg and left-wing media like Young Turks have also dissected these. Media partisanship tends toward excluding this information on the right, and there needs to be more pressure on telling the truth.

Blocking tweets that contain misinformation is important - this isn’t leaving information out, these are tweets that incite violence in many cases, which right now is something that is bubbling here. We’ve had armed protests, some violence, police brutality issues in NY, and marches being planned. When public figures are saying things that are provably untrue, or refuse to present evidence, in a tense situation - it’s important that social media don’t facilitate these people to create en masse violence. It’s especially true of the voting period - in many cases, this acts as voter suppression, which is a really big issue in the US. People are allowed to make their own decisions, but when people in positions of power purposefully present false information designed to incite adverse reactions, that’s how you quickly descend into destroying institutions and transitioning to authoritarianism.

If you could share specifically where you heard the issue of segregated ballots, that would narrow down, as there are a few issues regarding this: a previous poster mentioned one, but also mail-in votes received after 3rd November currently are not counted in the state's election results, regardless of their postmark. This is referred to as segregation in the media. This was due to uncertainty around court cases that might be pursued by the Trump campaign. The initial belief behind these cases were that PA would be Republican, and so Trump may try to stop the count. Supporters protested requesting the count be stopped, but even before the inclusion of these became a question, Biden leads in PA. Note that mail in votes skew very democratic, even in Republican strongholds.

Although -- would point out that PA is not narrowing, Biden's lead is expanding, and will likely continue to do so.

ListeningQuietly · 06/11/2020 19:15

Desnol
PA has the rather surreal problem that a subcontracted company bollocksed up on the printing and distribution of a big batch of votes in a marginal county

the voters did everything right within the law as best they could
but the forms were non compliant

as per multiple other SC rulings over the last few years
where votes are validly cast
they have to be counted
even if the eejits running the system got it wrong

best equivalent is

UK tax return deadline is midnight on 31 Jan
you send your return and get a receipt at 11.30
but HMRC system has a hissy fit and records it at 12.10
your return is valid
because you were in the right

Mamanyt · 06/11/2020 20:39

We still don't know for sure, but it is looking good. North Carolina (where I live) will have a recount. Biden is only about 1200 votes ahead here, which means an automatic recount. However, he has a decent lead in Pennsylvania, and if he wins there, he goes over 270 Electoral votes, and can be declared President Elect. However, it looks as if he will also take Arizona and Nevada, which leaves the Orange Abomination in the dirt.

Desnol · 06/11/2020 20:49

@sergeilavrov - don't worry about "segregated votes" question, another user aswered it (thanks @ListeningQuietly).

As for your support for censorship, do think again. Ask yourself - "Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?" (the rather famous phrase, see Google). Who are the people making these decisions on our behalf? What qualifies them to enforce such decisions? My IQ is probably considerably higher than theirs, and my sense of ethics is almost certainly greater, so perhaps I should apply for that job and enforce my views upon the populace? Or perhaps other criteria apply? If so, which ones - would I have to be very rich and an IT whizz kid? Actually, I was an IT whizz kid, but my bank balance is nowhere near the required levels.

You say that Trump had to be censored because his tweet could incite violence. Well, there is already a law (in UK at least, and I expect in US too) against speech which incites violence - he should be taken to court so that judges can decide if that is so or not. Censorship isn't the answer.

I just watched an amazing interview on Channel 4 News, one of the main News services over here. They interviewed a woman called Mary Trump, described as a psychologist and a niece of Donald Trump. She really laid into him, his character, how he's likely to behave, I watched it absolutely agog. At the end, the interviewer asked her "Will his children stay loyal to him?" and she answered "Yes, they will, unless they have an incentive / find it expedient not to do so." [can't recall the exact phrase she used, but it was something along those lines]. And there the interview ended - the interviewer failed to ask the obvious question - "what incentive did she, as his niece, have in order to be so hugely disloyal in a public broadcast"? Now that would be interesting to know.

Does that interview incite violence? Will Trump thump her next time he sees her? Or will he merely drop her from his Xmas card list? My guess would be that he won't thump her - as a psychologist she probably judged that he's not a violent man, and felt safe enough to broadcast such views in public.

How someone behaves depends far more on the person than on information received. If someone you respect said something "incendiary", would you take up violence on the strength of a single tweet? I hope not.

Do think about it. Censorship is the abuse of power of information. Not a good way to go, unless you believe in suppressing free speech.

sergeilavrov · 06/11/2020 20:53

@desnol Free speech has limits, even in the US. You will be prosecuted for yelling 'fire' in a crowded place. This is the political equivalent, inciting panic and violence across America and systematically undermining critical institutions of state. Autocrats take advantage of these freedoms in ways that present danger to innocent people, and that is unacceptable morally - but most critically, legally.

Besides all of this, free speech doesn't apply in private platforms - something the GOP fights to maintain all the time. Don't like it? Don't use Twitter.

ListeningQuietly · 06/11/2020 20:55

You say that Trump had to be censored because his tweet could incite violence. Well, there is already a law (in UK at least, and I expect in US too) against speech which incites violence
Nope
In the US, free speech Currently includes racist hate

Define censorship
MNHQ rightly remove posts that break their rules

US news sources are doing the same

pre BTL comments, news sources owned what they published

allowing every shit for brains to incite intolerance has not gone well

the worm will turn

SpeccyLime · 06/11/2020 21:16

You say that Trump had to be censored because his tweet could incite violence. Well, there is already a law (in UK at least, and I expect in US too) against speech which incites violence - he should be taken to court so that judges can decide if that is so or not. Censorship isn't the answer.

It is not against the law for a private platform like Twitter to decide to place a warning on tweets containing information which is provably false and likely to cause civil unrest.

Censorship as a free speech issue is a government function. It occurs when government bodies or officials prevent the dissemination of information or the sharing of certain views. Private institutions have every right to set the terms their users must follow, and no person’s legal right to free speech is infringed by a private institution limiting their platform.

An example of actual censorship is when Trump called for a Senate investigation into news outlets for publishing unflattering stories about him.

Desnol · 06/11/2020 21:16

@ListeningQuietly - thanks for the explanation, very helpful. Agree - the voters shouldn't be penalised for something that's outside their control.

I laughed when you mentioned HMRC example - I did have one such run in with the Inland Revenue, as they were called then. The taxman wanted to charge me the penalty fee for not returning the form on time. In reality, I had returned the information, but not on the required form, and had proof that it was posted on time. So there was poor old me at the Appeal hearing, facing no less than three judges and a very angry looking Tax Inspector. When the hearing was over, the judges asked me and the Tax Inspector to step outside while they deliberated. The Tax Inspector sat next to me while we waited, and suddenly he was the nicest person on earth - he explained what was bothering the Inland Revenue so much - it wasn't that I had submitted the wrong information, or that it was late - it was the fact that the law didn't actually require me to use their form, and that form was critical to their new computer systems and the way they wanted to manage the taxation from that point onwards. He explained that if I won the appeal, then Inland Revenue would be forced to change the wording of their law. And guess what - I won the appeal, was refunded the penalty fee, and the Inland Revenue had to change the wording of the law, as well as go through the dozens of pages of my hand written tax return info. He he he! However, to be fair, their form also had mistakes and was counter-intuitive - also there was more than one form, and some parts of it were missing. I gave it a fair go, and when I couldn't put on the form all the information I was obliged to provide, I decided to provide the information in my own format, and within the deadline.

That was decades ago, but I still smile about it. I value that win over Inland Revenue as highly as once having a poem published. Not many people have that one on their 50 things to do once in a lifetime List...