So, finally got a brief nap but wanted to come back and see if I could clarify anything else.
@bluewanda and @Kljnmw3459 In terms of early calling, the only outlet not calling Arizona is ABC. ABC owns 538 (Nate Silver and the Gang) whose predictions under Obama saw them worshipped as some sort of predictive messiah. It’s worth noting they 538 have said they would call Arizona (despite saying they would have waited longer than Fox and AP to do so), but are dependent on the ABC decision desks.
Decision desks use a lot of in depth analysis at the district level, using political scientists and statisticians who are experts on sometimes even specific localities within states to call results. They called Arizona because of the specific districts votes haven’t been counted for yet. I think Arizona’s margins will narrow, but not enough to flip the state back. You can read more about how decision desks work by reading this piece by AP.
@angelicinnocent The more whispers there are of Biden stepping down a few months in, the less likely it is to happen. I think it’s unlikely anyway as it would harm the legitimacy of the Democratic Party, and could damage them in future elections. It would also reflect poorly on Kamala Harris, who would be seen as complicit - who I think, along with Mayor Pete and Yang - are ones to watch four years down the line. Only Nixon has ever resigned, due to Watergate, and that had significant implications for Ford who was seen as a bit of a lame duck. He was the only individual ever to serve as President without being elected as President of VP.
@sparklfairy and @Lurkingforawhile A clarification from Georgia is that they misspoke and actually have around 50,000 ballots left. Oh, the joys of election year. We anticipate update announcements from Nevada at midday, Arizona’s Mariscopa votes are 9pm (those will narrow the lead slightly but still two blue counties yet to report) and we are minutes away from getting an update from Philadelphia (They have about 160k votes to count, and Biden dominates 9 to 1).