To ask if Biden has definitely won?

[bluewanda]

He has, right? Joe Biden is the new POTUS!

@Dongdingdong

No other news organisation has called Arizona yet.

@prh47bridge the Guardian is a news organisation and they called it about 12 hours ago. Biden has 100% won Arizona.

Guardian are using Associated Press for their news agency.

...the Democrats have long since cised to be a party for working class Americans.

Have the Republicans become a party for working class Americans?

If so, what is your definition of 'a party for working class Americans'?

i hope so but trump is alr4eady calling it fraudulent because of the mail votes

Even if you count Arizona for Biden, he needs at least one more state to win. The most likely are Nevada or Pennsylvania, but he could lose both.

@MissConductUS Definitely not misinformed. I teach and advise in the graduate program there and at another in the DC area. A number of my own students were impacted by this and we've suspended a whole course as a result.

Some states the electoral college need not follow the popular vote.

@mathanxiety

...the Democrats have long since cised to be a party for working class Americans.

Have the Republicans become a party for working class Americans?

If so, what is your definition of 'a party for working class Americans'?

Neither party really represents their economic interests, but the Republicans probably speak their language better.

But Trump is interesting, because some of the things he talks about are the things traditional leftist working class parties talked about - movement o capital and labour, and protection of industry. It probably should be no surprise that the working classes are as interested in those things now as they were in the past.

One of the most amazing things Trump has done is convince supposed left-wing progressives to stump up for globalism and free trade.

Does anyone else think there'll be riots if Trump gets in again?

@cdtaylornats This is an important point, and one that will probably gain increasing traction over the next few weeks. There isn't a federal law that requires electors to vote as they have pledged, and just 29 states plus DC have legal control over how their electors vote in the Electoral College. Even then, the penalties for disobeying and voting against the statewide preference can be limited. I think it's very unlikely this will happen, but it will be interesting to see if the Trump grassroots or campaign will seek to engage on this issue - and how they will do it. It's likely that investigations into votes will diminish their ability to argue on the basis of electoral illegitimacy, so they have to make careful calculations should they lose the EC.

For reference, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada all have laws -- but Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia do not.

@sergeilavrov & @cdtaylornats Sorry if this is a silly question, but are you saying that in all but 29 states, the Elector could (in theory) ignore the public vote, and vote for their own choice as President?

@GlowingOrb

Even if you count Arizona for Biden, he needs at least one more state to win. The most likely are Nevada or Pennsylvania, but he could lose both.

He could win Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia. Or he could lose the lot and Trump wins the presidency.

Its to the wire.

@sergeilavrov I don't know about the rest of it but the involvement of "advanced students" from the USMA is highly implausible. They are neither soldiers or commissioned officers. They are students who right now are trying to pass their chemistry and engineering courses. They are, quite frankly, the last people the Army would deploy in an emergency. There's also the problem of the legal restrictions in place against using active-duty military personnel in a law enforcement role.

Posse Comitatus Act

So if it's reported in a reliable news media outlet, do let us know.

[quote WitchesSpelleas]**@sergeilavrov* & @cdtaylornats* Sorry if this is a silly question, but are you saying that in all but 29 states, the Elector could (in theory) ignore the public vote, and vote for their own choice as President?[/quote]
yep.

faithless electors.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector

@WitchesSpelleas Definitely no such thing as a silly question when it comes to US politics. Technically, Electoral College members can do so in ANY state. This never happens. In those 29 states + DC, they are less likely to do so as they are legally mandated to vote for the party with the statewide popular vote victory. However, they could willingly take on the legal consequences (fines, jail time) to do so. In practice, this will not happen, so you shouldn't worry. The question is whether Trump's campaign or grassroots will attempt to mobilise this as a last ditch effort to retain power. In 2016, this idea was floated but Clinton dismissed the idea and encouraged people to observe and respect due process.

Wow, I didn't know that was even a technical possibility!

Re premature calling of a state. I used to think that but over the years have learned that they are always or nearly always accurate. This year is a little different because of the large number of postal and early votes, but I tend to trust the AP. Also, Fox were the first to report that Arizona went to Biden who they are not a fan of which makes it even more likely.

Where the piss have those famous checks and balances been today and the last 4 years by the way?

People must have noticed on general election night in the U.K. the different tv networks have different constituency tallies? So you flick from BBC to Sky to ITV etc and they "call" different results or show actual declarations. Presumably that's a similar thing.

@user1471565182 The consensus seems to be that there is a lack of clarity about how to enforce checks and balances with a split House. This became more difficult given the need to focus resources: in effect, by seeking to simultaneously sweep away or ignore many checks and balances, Trump benefitted from diffusion of action as the House wasn’t able to dedicate resources in a consolidated way to effectively use those balances. Even where attempts to do so ought to have been successful, such as Trump’s violation of the Impoundment Control Act (when Trump withheld $391 million in Senate-approved aid to Ukraine, an issue central to the impeachment trial) or the violations of the Hatch Act (during the campaign across numerous posts), Trump responded by illegally taking money from other appropriations or simply ignoring federal judicial rulings (as ruled illegal by a federal judge in TX).

The question really becomes whether, in a post-Trump America, the move is to punish and risk being seen as politicising justice instead of investing in progress or ignoring, and setting precedent that these acts were acceptable. We can turn to other countries for an idea of what to do, and the most popular concept in contemporary post-conflict environments is the use of truth and reconciliation commissions. The idea is to form an official and relatively independent body tasked with discovering and revealing past wrongdoing by a government, even if those charges don’t result in prosecutions.

The result in Arizona is not yet confirmed, it isn't necessarily in the bag for the Dems..I wish it was! Still v hopeful they will get it though.

@Inkpaperstars Arizona has four counties yet to call, and while it's definitely fair to say Fox called it bizarrely early, it's pretty safely a Biden state now. The largest, and likely deciding one, is Mariscopa. However, even in more Republican counties - you can anticipate having significant mail in ballots thanks to a strong Mail Vote scheme ran by the GOP in the state. The shining light of this, in a way, is the McCain effect. Trump’s well documented comments on him and the military in general will be a heavily analysed factor in deciding Arizona, pushing long time Republicans into never-Trumpers. His widow has received a great number of threats today as a result.

It’s also important to recognise the mobilisation efforts of Latinx voters has really shifted the state, people voting who suffered greatly under Sheriff Arpaio (R - tent city, arresting critics, the creation of a militia)… a man pardoned by Trump, and whose Democratic successor is extremely popular.

That's very interesting about the McCain effect Sergei and if it does swing it then it's well deserved blowback for Trump for his disgraceful comments.

I wouldn't underestimate the effect of Cindy McCain's endorsement of Biden. That woman has serious power in Arizona, and she hates Donald Trump. I wouldn't cross her.

woah woah woah are we just making up new states now?

I think I said so on another thread, Biden has more support in the military.