This time next year - predictions

[thesnob20]

Where do you think we'll be?

I hope to god, somewhere near normal.

Feels incredibly bleak.

@Aloethere there is already no queuing for shops, at least where I am. Pubs and cinemas open too. Ok there may not be huge concerts next year but small things yes, there’s already fireworks nights going ahead here. I am seeing friends and family and social distancing is getting less between everyone. By spring next year it will pretty much be non existent in my personal life. I’ll social distance from strangers in public but not friends and family. We will go on holiday like normal too in the summer.

I don't like the city. Can I be from upstate like Lockport or Erie? I have family there and the homes along the canals are gorgeous. I would settle for Niagara Falls but I don't want to live in Buffalo. Also, can I come back south in the winter time? Lake effect snow is no joke

Of course! I am very fond of the Hudson Highlands but further upstate is lovely as well. And you will remain a NY'er in the winter as half the state seems to decamp for FL or the Carolinas in the winter.

I think the general compliance of the public will last until the first week of nice weather we have im Spring 2021. If no vaccine is found by then and there isn't one on the horizon by that time then I honestly believe people will just get on with their lives. And yes, they will just stop queuing for supermarkets and keeping their distance.

I think rapid testing will have been introduced, so although they won't operate at full capacity, concerts and sporting events with crowds will be able to go ahead. Rapid testing will start to become the norm for any indoor gathering. We'll have no more lockdowns.

I think vaccination of those on the front line and some of the vulnerable will have begun.

I'm shocked at those painting a picture of unrelenting misery. The financial picture will be horrible but it's just not feasible to live as restricted as we are now in the long term.

@Roselilly36

Normal summer? Wear a mask through airport & in resort, far from a normal summer. I am beyond guessing what will happen next.

Didn't go through an airport and didn't go to a 'resort' where we had to wear masks. Had a wonderful time, I am glad we made the most of it to be honest because this winter is going to be shite. But it won't be forever, as some people seem to (rather gleefully it seems) think.

Why do people have to be so pessimistic. This pandemic is nowhere near as bad as the government makes out. The figures they release are false because they’re giving out positives even if you just had flu. Even the Who said lock downs aren’t necessary. The covid test centres all seem to be empty, so why it’s hard to get an appointment is strange.

@TibetanTerrier how is it selfish to wang a proper life after a year or more of restrictions? So many people are going into poverty, thousands of redundancies and normal healthcare abandoned. I would actually say those that want lockdowns to continue are more selfish. I predict that if a vaccine isn’t found by spring then most people will give up on the restrictions and those that are worried about the virus can shield themselves and everyone else will go back to normal.

@Leaannb

Same place we are now. There is no going back

I find that very unlikely, even with my negative hat on. We will have made a lot of progress with something by then. Even if it's a 60 second test you can take regularly before doing anything.

@seabreeze77

Why do people have to be so pessimistic. This pandemic is nowhere near as bad as the government makes out. The figures they release are false because they’re giving out positives even if you just had flu. Even the Who said lock downs aren’t necessary. The covid test centres all seem to be empty, so why it’s hard to get an appointment is strange.

Why did you write this?

Who knows? Where I will be is there same place I am now, accepting shit happens, looking for the positives where I can, being grateful for the things I have, accepting life ebbs and flows. Living in the now.

@MissConductUS

I don't like the city. Can I be from upstate like Lockport or Erie? I have family there and the homes along the canals are gorgeous. I would settle for Niagara Falls but I don't want to live in Buffalo. Also, can I come back south in the winter time? Lake effect snow is no joke

Of course! I am very fond of the Hudson Highlands but further upstate is lovely as well. And you will remain a NY'er in the winter as half the state seems to decamp for FL or the Carolinas in the winter.

Perfect..Upstate New York from April to October. Completely avoiding the tourists in the Outer Banks

@Ihatefish

Who knows? Where I will be is there same place I am now, accepting shit happens, looking for the positives where I can, being grateful for the things I have, accepting life ebbs and flows. Living in the now.

Amen to that.

[quote Racoonworld]@Aloethere there is already no queuing for shops, at least where I am. Pubs and cinemas open too. Ok there may not be huge concerts next year but small things yes, there’s already fireworks nights going ahead here. I am seeing friends and family and social distancing is getting less between everyone. By spring next year it will pretty much be non existent in my personal life. I’ll social distance from strangers in public but not friends and family. We will go on holiday like normal too in the summer.[/quote]
Assuming they stay open, what if they don't, do you think they will listen when you call in for a pint and explain that it's ok you are back to normal? What will you do if there is a queue? You are back to normal so you will just swan in past everyone. Assuming you are going abroad on holiday you will get on a plane with no mask even if it is required, I'm sure they will listen when you explain that you are back to normal. Maybe you can get a little sign made up to hang around your neck saying 'back to normal' so that everyone knows you are grand and you don't have to explain it over and over again, it'll be like a little access all areas pass just for you!

Do what you like, I'm not in the UK so what you do has no effect on me anyway. I'm still going to roll my eyes at people who say 'I'm going back normal anyway' like they can make a pandemic disappear by closing their eyes and sticking their fingers in the ears.

@Elephantplaces....Do honestly expect people to give themselves a test everytime they leave the house?

This time next year: still in lockdown with the latest ‘circuit breaker’ having lasted for a year. Hoping for a vaccine 2022. Mass unemployment. Tax rises. Interest rate rises. Food banks. People dying of diseases which would have been treatable if we hadn’t made the hospitals Covid only. Chris Whitty still producing his graphs of terror which bear no relation to reality. The diligent Covid Marshalls still patrolling the streets. Elderly people being ‘protected’ by being left to rot alone with no human contact. Children missing out on school. Discussion about the need to postpone elections.....But hey, we’re ‘suppressing the virus’ so that’s all great.

Oh, and in developing countries: mass deaths from TB, diarrhoea, childbirth, malaria, starvation. The casualties of lockdown. As now foretold by the WHO.

We will still be needing therapy!

I hope that we have a vaccine and that life is o the road to recovery from the virus and the fall out from Brexit.

I wonder, if we had known what we know now, would anyone have campaigned for Brexit at all? Do you think that BoJo, Farage et al have remorse for severing Britain from the EU in hindsight?

My pessimistic response, just to satisfy Leaannb:

COVID-19 and George Orwell 1984 put together, otherwise known as COVID-1984. Distopian state, V for Vendetta, Mad Max, Twelve Monkeys and so on!

My actual response, to satisfy all other Mnetters:

A vaccine still won't be found by October 2021, but the treatment will be good enough that the vast majority of hospitalised cases will survive. Needing intensive care will become much rarer which will free up the Nightingale hospitals e.g. the NEC and they can become normal exhibition / concert venues again. Also, COVID will have mutated enough, and that in itself will mean less hospital admissions too. Things will go back to normal and people will just accept that they will catch COVID, a flu or a cold once every few years. Some people may stick with some old habits e.g. mask wearing but will be entirely subjective.

@Leaannb

Where are you getting this from? While I understand there is not likely to be a silver bullet, at least any time soon, I have not heard any experts give such a pessimistic outlook. On the contrary they seem hopeful that the situation will improve.

5 or 6 months but I have absolutely no immunity including T cell immunity. Its looking more and more likely herd immunity will not be possible and a working vaccine very difficult. Add on the fact that research is saying its not just transmitted by droplets but also aerosol transmission this is going to be a long process. Its a marathon not a sprint. People think that in 6 months we will have a vaccine and everything goes back to normal is deluded. They need to accept that rolling lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing is here to stay.

This article for example talks about how waning natural immunity does not mean a vaccine is not possible. Is the author wrong in your opinion?

www.independent.co.uk/health_and_wellbeing/coronavirus-vaccine-immunity-infection-covid-b575224.html

@Esspee

My feelings on where we are likely to be this time next year are unfortunately downbeat. The first coronaviruses affected humans in the 1960s, since then we have created a vaccine for not a single coronavirus which jumped the species barrier despite several of them being potentially extremely dangerous. So in 60 years we haven’t come up with a vaccine. Why are we assuming an effective one will be found soon?

None of them had quite the impact this one has had though, did they?

Things will get better when we have a reliable vaccine that can be manufactured on a massive scale. I can’t fathom that will take less than a year. So my hope for a year from now is that things are the same as they are now, because I just can’t face it being even worse and I don’t think it will be better yet.

I don’t think the excessive optimism is doing anyone any favors. From the beginning I had friends and family saying it would only be a few weeks and that just made no sense. Then it was by the end of the summer. By Christmas. By 2021. Mentally, I’m finding it more useful to find ways to make life as good as possible given the constraints as opposed to just waiting for it to end. Maybe if I were one of the people saying it will be over soon I would be happier, but I think I would just be repeatedly disappointed.

This time next year:

People will still be moaning about Trump (he's going to win another term you know, like it or not).

People will still be moaning about leaving the EU.

People will be complaining about the continued Covid restrictions and that other people are flouting them.

We'll all be a year older, and a bit poorer.

My predictions for this time next year:

• an effective vaccine being rolled out amongst HCPs and the vulnerable.
• a summer similar to this one just gone- able to go on holiday, lower numbers, increase in numbers that can get together (eg 50 perhaps) more outdoor activities
• a Government push/initiative to create jobs (cyber, Fatima? You don’t know it yet but it’ll be great...)
• most young healthy people generally going back to normal. Mask wearing in shops and distancing from oldies but generally back to normal with each other. Tentative small day festivals etc starting
• higher taxes for us all, hopefully only slightly for those on lower incomes so won’t have a massive effect day to day
• changes to imports etc due to Brexit and a massive push to buy and support local particularly farming
• young people choosing different subjects at uni- for example lots of nurses, pharmacists, biologists etc as they want job security and to fill the gaps in the workplace
• Brexit has happened, doing our best to crack on and make trade deals, Bojo still bumbling through til the next election when Rishi will be Tory candidate but Keir Starmer will win with a small majority
• we will come out of covid blinking in the sun like leaving a cinema. We will start to embrace each other, live cautiously and perhaps more frugally and mindfully but we grateful for our human connections. We will buy and support local as so much time at home has made us realise how important our communities are. Our children will have their first parties etc again and the joy on their faces will be wonderful.

I have hope. A huge amount of hope. It can’t be bad forever.

We'll be back to normal. It will die out eventually. And by then there will be a vaccine.

I think there’s probably not much chance of “normality” resuming any time soon. I suspect by the end of the decade things may head that way, but I think unfortunately, that anyone predicting things to be any better than they are now in a year’s time will be disappointed.

The vulnerable need protecting as they are the priority. No the economy, or people’s jobs, mental health or people in need of urgent treatment now. That’s just the way of it and we absolutely have to get used to it, because there is simply no other way. If Governments stopped working they way they are then it would essentially become genocide.

People will still be moaning about Trump (he's going to win another term you know, like it or not).

The best election model I've found gives him an 8% chance of being reelected, and his numbers have been trending down consistently.

projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president