This time next year - predictions

[thesnob20]

Where do you think we'll be?

I hope to god, somewhere near normal.

Feels incredibly bleak.

Still living with Coronavirus.

Boris still trying to run the UK and still failing.

I'm plotting how to avoid it all atm, being able to live on the fringe of society has it's benefits. Although we all have to eat and i don't like the sound of cheap American imports.
I'm really praying we don't go cashless or my plans are scuppered.

Testing will be key to everything. Hopefully better therapeutics but I think testing more than a vaccine is our hope, given the emerging reinfection issue.

@goldrabbit22

You might be paying heavy fines for just going back to normal.anyway.

Whatever the cost it won't be as awful as the cost incurred if we carry on this trajectory.

So you aren't thinking about the human cost?

Just to add, I'm a historian by background (left academia due to the workload) and I'm honestly mystified by people thinking that we can - or will - shut normal human existence down indefinitely for a virus with an IFR of less than 0.5%, where the average age of fatalities in developed world is 80-something. Its just a bizarre idea. TBH Covid isn't even in the top one thousand most challenging things humanity has faced.

@Leaannb
The research on antibodies does not look good. I have no antibodies from the virus 5 months out from recovery. Thats going to make finding a vaccine harder. Not impossible but harder

I agree. You may still have some T cell immunity. We're fortunate that there are so many different vaccine candidates. I think the Regeneron and Eli Lilly antibody cocktails will be very important tools for early stage threatment and prophylaxis.

Was it really five months ago you were infected?

@ACautionaryTale I’m sorry but you’re talking rubbish.

1918 flu was about 18 maths wasn’t it? Didn’t it just fade away?

Months

....

[quote MissConductUS]@Leaannb
The research on antibodies does not look good. I have no antibodies from the virus 5 months out from recovery. Thats going to make finding a vaccine harder. Not impossible but harder

I agree. You may still have some T cell immunity. We're fortunate that there are so many different vaccine candidates. I think the Regeneron and Eli Lilly antibody cocktails will be very important tools for early stage threatment and prophylaxis.

Was it really five months ago you were infected?[/quote]
5 or 6 months but I have absolutely no immunity including T cell immunity. Its looking more and more likely herd immunity will not be possible and a working vaccine very difficult. Add on the fact that research is saying its not just transmitted by droplets but also aerosol transmission this is going to be a long process. Its a marathon not a sprint. People think that in 6 months we will have a vaccine and everything goes back to normal is deluded. They need to accept that rolling lockdowns, mask wearing and social distancing is here to stay.

I may be misremembering, but IIRC the 1918 flu is thought to be still circulating today as just-another-flu-strain.

And the people you kill by doing this just don't matter?

What about the people killed by lockdown?

What about the people killed by other diseases worldwide that are never mentioned? Eg malaria and TB.

What about the people worldwide killed by poverty?

I am really sick of people in the U.K. thinking their lives are more important than those of poor people elsewhere in the world. That’s why the WHO says lockdowns should be avoided. They hurt the poor.

Next time you go to write something so judgemental and nasty first look in the mirror long and hard

@YellowishZebra

I don't think it will be too bad. I think every thing will be open but we still won't have crowds at sporting events or arena concerts. I think we won't have limits on number of people we can visit but that masks everywhere inside and social distancing are here forever. Oh and we will have a labour government because when the brexit shit hits the fan there will be a general election.

I can’t see masks and social distancing lasting for ever. A huge number of people have given up on social distancing already - it seemed to coincide with mandatory mask wearing. And there are plenty of people who refuse to wear them now. All that’s going to escalate.

I sincerely hope you’re right about a Labour government although I’d settle for a competent Tory one right now. Easier to achieve too.

@SomewhereEast

I may be misremembering, but IIRC the 1918 flu is thought to be still circulating today as just-another-flu-strain.

It was an HqN1 aviary virus

@SomewhereEast

I may be misremembering, but IIRC the 1918 flu is thought to be still circulating today as just-another-flu-strain.

H1N1 is what I meant to say

@Leaannb How are these indefinitely rolling lockdowns going to be paid for & how will the population - most of whom are at very little risk - going to be compelled to comply indefinitely? I ask this because I think long term social distancing would require a rewiring of basic human nature, something which even the most brutal totalitarian regimes of the 20th century failed to sustainably achieve. So its not going to happen in liberal democracies for a not-that-awful-by-historical-standards virus

www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm
H1N1

Tibetan Terrier we are all going to die. It is a fact of life. I don't think we can save every life. All the deaths in my immediate circle since March have been of cancer, except one from dementia.
I think if we carry on like this there will be huge job losses. People will be unable to pay their' mortgages, so where will they live? Who will feed them? There are so many other areas of concern. People are having to be told to seek medical help because they are holding back because they think Covid comes first.

The future looks pretty bleak whatever we do.

Unfortunately I think it will get worse before it gets better. Brexit, poor/decimated crops, recession, erratic weather...

Most of us haven't woken up to the challenges we will face over the next decades due to over population and climate change. I can't see how we can keep the standard of living we have all become accustomed to.

[quote SomewhereEast]@Leaannb How are these indefinitely rolling lockdowns going to be paid for & how will the population - most of whom are at very little risk - going to be compelled to comply indefinitely? I ask this because I think long term social distancing would require a rewiring of basic human nature, something which even the most brutal totalitarian regimes of the 20th century failed to sustainably achieve. So its not going to happen in liberal democracies for a not-that-awful-by-historical-standards virus[/quote]
We don't know that the majority of the population is at very low risk. We will not know that for years to come. We also don't know about the long term affects of Covid as we find out more people and governments will act accordingly. Let me just say that Covid lung and Covid fog is extremely real

@Leaannb. Is that virus still in circulation, or if not what caused it to disappear?

Take things one day at a time, OP.

America will be at war with China.

Firstly that doesn't really answer my question. Secondly we kind of do know that the majority of the population are low risk. No one is going to shut the world down & risk a second Great Depression because of post-viral fatigue, they really aren't.

Honestly I just find the lack of perspective people have about this bizarre.