Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

I think that universities at the present time don't seem to have the intellectual rigour we would expect. The lack of vigorous debate and the rise of no-platforming has led to narrow views rather than broad outlooks

And this Up and down the land, the Labour and Libdem votes dropped
rather than the Tory vote rising

YY to both of these. As a black woman from a very working class area it is often a source of amazement and wonder to read on line / on social media / listening to media / the arts etc etc how vast the differences are between the voices we hear in these areas and the voices in my old community. The conversations, behaviours, concerns, understanding of the world are so unbelievably different but those voices are not heard or reflected anywhere. More and more we only hear ‘one side of the story’ because working class voices are routinely ridiculed, patronised and silenced.

The world we have fed to us through the media, in all its forms, whether left or right is a white, middle class voice. The irony is, while there is so much moral outrage that people voted against their own interests, people do not see the part they themselves played in alienating people to the point they don’t trust anyone who claims to be an ‘expert’.

If you look at that Ashfield link - the Labour vote has been dropping for a long time.
2019 was just the tipping point.

FPTP encourages protest votes
and since the breakdown of the two party system
turnout has dropped year after year

so a lot of those Labour lost votes stayed at home
and many others had moved south
the electoral roll in many red wall seats is dropping
eg en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bishop_Auckland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
2019 turnout = 65.7% = 44,805 people (electoral roll = 68,196)
1974 turnout = 78.4% = 56,371 people (electoral roll = 71,901)

in 1974 the UK population was 56 million, today it is 66 million
a 17% increase
NOT reflected in the number of voters in the former red wall

@Mollscroll

Yes the universities are closing down debate in a very unhealthy way.

And yes Labour losing women is a factor. It’s not why they lost the red wall but it’s symptomatic of their lack of connection with how people see the world. Wokeness is killing them. It’s alienating me and I’m a middle class liberal. Heaven knows how it’s polling in the post Industrial working class northern towns.

Right - the kind of situation that has the LP replacing a long standing, working class, labour movement supporting candidate with a 20-something middle class trans activist university student means that they simply are alianated from the communities they are operating in. They can't represent those people because they don't have a connection with the communities or know anything about them.

That's had impact in terms of all the different identity politics/SJW type causes that the bourgeoisie favour these days, women's issues being only one of them.

Which parties picked up the dropped Labour & Libdem votes?

Who says they got picked up? When there is nobody left listening, often apathy sets in and people stop bothering to vote at all.

"xenophobic" nationalists, who are overwhelmingly in favour of remaining inside a non-incorporating union with other European nations, the 'foreigners' that they are supposed to hate, the same non-incorporating union that good old, harmless, union-flag waving British nationalists couldn't wait to be rid of.

It's blindingly obvious to anyone who is even slightly objective it's not the Scots nationalists who are the raging xenophobic hypocrites.
@XDownwiththissortofthingX Remind me just who were setting up border "checkpoints" just recently, shouting abuse at anyone heading north. The sort of behaviour which one would expect from rednecks on the Mexican border. SNP members, per chance? NS only made a half-hearted effort to distance from them.

As for the EU, the SNP still has plenty of members who continue to subscribe to the anti-European position the party held as recently as the '90s.

Remind me just who were setting up border "checkpoints" just recently, shouting abuse at anyone heading north.

The same handful of fringe lunatics who pull similar stunts constantly. They're an embarrassment to all and sundry, but they are in no way representative of the SNP, the wider independence movement, or Scots in general.

They're well known to activists within pro-indi circles, and no, they are not SNP members, hence why it's not incumbent upon Nicola Sturgeon to moderate or monitor their behaviour.

Now, shall we talk about how every member of the BNP, Britain First, the EDL, or anyone who waves a union flag and shouts abuse at BAME people, foreigners, left-leaning people, or anyone who disagrees with them, represents the entire pro-Union movement, and why Boris Johnson doesn't individually condemn every single one of them?

No, there's no need, because that's equally as ludicrous as your point about a handful of flag-waving loons at the border.

You are absolutely correct, there are card carrying SNP members who are opposed to EU membership, so can you explain how this means that every single proponent of Independence is a raging xenophobe, but the far larger proportion of pro-Brexit people in pro-union parties are not xenophobes, and are just well-intentioned patriots?

I honestly can't be bothered explaining to you how utterly laughable your claim about Shetland and oil is, but I would have thought that since you cited maritime laws it would be abundantly clear to you in any case.

TBH there were roadblocks on bits of Cornwall and Wales due to COVID

lets not derail a naice English thread with sporrans at dawn

@OlympicProcrastinator

Which parties picked up the dropped Labour & Libdem votes?

Who says they got picked up? When there is nobody left listening, often apathy sets in and people stop bothering to vote at all.

I’m sure that is true but it would be interesting to know the turn out in red wall areas over the past few elections. Has it dropped a lot or stayed more or less the same?

You are absolutely correct, there are card carrying SNP members who are opposed to EU membership, so can you explain how this means that every single proponent of Independence is a raging xenophobe, but the far larger proportion of pro-Brexit people in pro-union parties are not xenophobes, and are just well-intentioned patriots?
I'm not the one who equated anti-EU views with xenophobia. You did that, so I pointed out that the SNP isn't entirely united on the issue.

The xenophobia I'm seeing includes things like "F* off out of Scotland" and similar being posted by the likes of Ian Blackford.

You can believe what you like about oil, but you cannot deny that it formed a substantial part of the economic case made for leaving in 2014, a case which looked rather shaky when the price collapsed in 2016. Lose the Shetlands and there's not a lot left.

South
see my post at 18:13
the pattern is consistent

its why the boundary change review was so contentious - as it wanted to reduce the number of old industrial constituencies that historically voted Labour but are now depopulated

now those seats have turned blue, the Govt has no incentive to reduce the number of MPs in those areas

Look at page 10 here
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018_09_10_Final_recs_Media_Handbook_V1.pdf
proposal to reduce the number of MPs in the North West from 75 to 68 .....

Listening - apologies, you have already addressed my question.

South
Not a problem, I am very happily falling down one of my favourite data wormholes

But it is really relevant that Corbyn and Swinson affected the Labour and Libdem votes negatively
NOT
that Johnson affected the Conservative vote positively

I'm not the one who equated anti-EU views with xenophobia. You did that, so I pointed out that the SNP isn't entirely united on the issue

You claimed Scots nationalism is xenophobic, so I'm questioning what on earth it is you believe is xenophobic about wishing to leave an incorporating union and become and Independent nation. It's the normal state for the majority of nations and peoples across the globe. Do you similarly believe, for example, that all Norwegian people must be inherently xenophobic since they are no longer part of a Swedish empire, or indeed, that Irish people must be raging xenophobes having rejected rule from London?
The point about EU membership is in relation to the fact that it's doubly breathtaking being accused of xenophobia, by people who espouse remaining inside a wholly incorporating union, the largest part of which voted to leave a non-incorporating union, citing a desire for sovereignty and independence. You really couldn't mark their necks with a blowtorch.

The xenophobia I'm seeing includes things like "F off out of Scotland" and similar being posted by the likes of Ian Blackford.*

Context. Please post any evidence of Ian Blackford posting this sort of thing in order to praise or encourage it rather than condemn it, and I'll complain about it myself.

You can believe what you like about oil, but you cannot deny that it formed a substantial part of the economic case made for leaving in 2014, a case which looked rather shaky when the price collapsed in 2016. Lose the Shetlands and there's not a lot left

Ok, for clarity, there is not any threat to oil posed by the Shetlands. This claim is a risible and totally spurious strawman, absolutely typical of the sort of nonsense that panicking unionists are now having to think up due to the fact the arse has totally fallen out of their pre-2014 arguments.

The Shetlands are not seeking 'independence from Scotland' for starters. Let's get that straight right away. They couldn't achieve this in any case since it's not within Scottish competence to grant them independence. What the Shetland Council is seeking is less centralised governance and greater political control at a local level (sound familiar?), something that is entirely understandable, and also something that they are far more likely to achieve after Scots independence in any case.

One of the ways to achieve this in the meantime is to become a Crown Dependency. If this were to happen, they would be a Crown Dependency within UK territorial waters, much like the Isle of Mann etc. If this were to come about prior to Scots independence, post-independence they would be a UK Crown Dependency in Scottish territorial waters. They have no claim whatsoever to oil, and nothing the Council is looking into doing right now in any way impacts on that.

There is no point to be debated about Shetlands and oil, it's a complete red-herring thought up by struggling unionists.

then it needs to win the majority of English and Welsh seats I’m completely bemused by the welsh swing to both Brexit and tories - both are massively against their self interest imo but I’m willing to admit I’m not fully informed on welsh politics, any welsh mners care to comment?

Graphista I thought the Libdems were going cancel Brexit? despite being vocal about this at the start of the campaign they gradually back-pedalled, plus their wokeness was extreme and they even went as far as to tell potential voters they didn’t want their vote if they wouldn’t agree twaw, they also aligned themselves with some pretty vile people including paedophiles in a very public way, plus from reading their manifesto (yes some of us voters actually make the effort!) it was very right wing with a few policies plain stolen from the tories! The leaders voting record closely supported Tory policy too.

working class voices are routinely ridiculed, patronised and silenced I agree - but this is not a new problem by any stretch! It’s why the unions and the Labour Party were created in the first place! I actually think what the Labour Party is lacking is good old fashioned wc tubthumpers! Not as front bench necessarily but certainly in the back benches. It certainly is lacking in wc MPs! Starmer is a barrister for crying out loud! And a sir!! His parents may appear “old school” labour but he’s in reality done his damndest to “escape” that class.

The self respecting socialists of old pre-Blair labour would be embarrassed to have a leader of this type!

The world we have fed to us through the media, in all its forms, whether left or right is a white, middle class voice while true to a degree there is at least a little responsibility on all of us to burst the bubble of our own echo chambers. I’m on Facebook and Twitter that’s really my limit as an old fogey who doesn’t “get” things like ig but I make an effort to follow those pages/feeds that oppose my preferred opinions to see and read what the tories, Lib Dem’s, pro brexiters etc are thinking - I’m still stumped as to why most of the time as there are so many contradictions but I try to not have my feeds too narrow

I think the government are doing a pretty poor job, but I will still vote Tory again at the next election.

Starmer is a barrister for crying out loud! And a sir!! His parents may appear “old school” labour but he’s in reality done his damndest to “escape” that class
Sorry
what?
He was knighted for outstanding services to the legal profession
he is a working class boy who passed the 11+
his siblings didn't
his mum was disabled and he was part carer for her in his teens
his wife works in the NHS

Corbyn grew up in a manor house and went to private school
Seamus Milne had his Winchester fees paid because daddy ran the BBC

Labour pre Blair is dead and should be buried
Labour post Corbyn is the only hope

He was knighted for outstanding services to the legal profession my point was old school socialists tend to disagree with the honours system generally and wouldn't have ACCEPTED a knighthood.

And I agree there are far too many others in the LP inc corbyn who also lack true wc roots

who also lack true wc roots
what is wc nowadays ?
list your top five WC jobs (by number of people who have them)

I agree - but this is not a new problem by any stretch! It’s why the unions and the Labour Party were created in the first place! I actually think what the Labour Party is lacking is good old fashioned wc tubthumpers! Not as front bench necessarily but certainly in the back benches. It certainly is lacking in wc MPs! Starmer is a barrister for crying out loud! And a sir!! His parents may appear “old school” labour but he’s in reality done his damndest to “escape” that class

Exactly my point. Labour moved away from the people it was set up to represent. Now it’s full of people who call their original core voters, thick, gammon, vulgar, uneducated, etc etc. They actually have very little grasp of who these people are.

@Graphista and @FatCatThinCat Thanks for the information on Sunak.

@Katharinablum Thanks for starting a very interesting thread which hasn't turned into a bunfight. Always interested to learn more about politics, including from people with different views. I think we all need to burst our echo chambers. MSM and social media encourage us all to stay in our echo chambers and see the differences between us rather the things we have in common. Politics has become increasingly polarised and it is not a good thing.

I am hoping Starmer will do well. Agree with @OlympicProcrastinator that politics needs to be more inclusive in terms of class and ethnicity, and take everyone's concerns into account.

Although I am not a Conservative voter, I have more of a problem with the current cabinet than previous ones. To the point where I'd prefer Theresa May, John Major etc over Johnson. I'm even thinking Thatcher wouldn't be as bad, I honestly never thought I'd see the day.

@OlympicProcrastinator I agree!

Sorry if that wasn't clear. I was just saying this is a perpetual problem

Top 5 wc jobs by how many do them? I'm no statistician so not sure how to look that up I did try but just got loads of nmw links

I would guess and would say the following are the working class jobs that are mostly done in the uk;

Entry level retail (cashier, shelf stacking...)
Cleaning
Entry level childcare
Entry level elderly care
Production line work (yes mostly decimated in thatcher era but still exists)

Just off the top of my head and yes I think it's likely that most wc voters are women! Labour missing a massive trick there but again a perpetual problem.

The unions did more for the working man than any other movement I can think of!
It's a shame it's seen as a bad thing.

I'm even thinking Thatcher wouldn't be as bad, I honestly never thought I'd see the day.

OMG yes, never thought I'd see the day I'd think like this then Johnson became pm!

Actually make that May!

Thatcher was horrific but at least she stuck to her principles so you knew where you stood with her and she was competent!

May lacked backbone and Johnson...

Well where the fuck to begin!!

@The80sweregreat I find it incredibly sad we've now got I think 2 generations full of people, voters who have no idea just how much the unions did for ordinary people.

So many hard won rights that people now take for granted

Annual leave
Sick pay
Notice periods if you're sacked
Redundancy rights
Health and safety regs
Working hours regs

And even

Equal pay act (ok there's still a long way to go with enforcement but still)
Maternity rights and pay

Yet far too many just think of strikes!