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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

284 replies

Katharinablum · 17/09/2020 20:07

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

OP posts:
SBTLove · 18/09/2020 12:02

@MeridaTheBold
I think Labour need you!!!
Their blinkers in Scotland are unbelievable, they could go back to a more traditional Labour that our working class parents and grandparents supported and gain support.
The Tories attitude to Scotland is ignorant and delusional.

FreidaMind · 18/09/2020 12:03

I don’t engage with people who use the term Yoon.

SBTLove · 18/09/2020 12:07

@FreidaMind
🤣🤣🤣🤣 delicate wee soul are you? it’s shorter to type 🤣🤣🤣🤣
The snobbery is strong here🤣🤣

BovaryX · 18/09/2020 12:07

@FOJN

BovaryX

If the 'basket of deplorables' reject Biden in November, the Twitter outrage will be audible on Mars.

Sadly I think it will be worse than Twitter outrage. I think the civil unrest in the US at the moment is just a sample of what's to come if Trump wins. Whichever way the election goes it's almost certain to be contested and it's possible the situation might erupt into civil war.

Sadly I think you are right. The recent scenes from Kenosha and Washington DC are crazy. The media's reporting; CNN's 'fiery but peaceful' tagline with a reporter standing in front of burning buildings; has been interesting. It makes no difference if the legacy media reports it or not because the videos are all over Twitter. America looks like it is staring into the abyss.
MeridaTheBold · 18/09/2020 12:09

Grin Labour would be too busy calling me a TERF and telling me to DIAF Wink

SBTLove · 18/09/2020 12:10

Maybe they need a Merida the Bold 🤣🤣 instead tippy toeing around everyone!

chomalungma · 18/09/2020 12:12

3 years is a LONG time in politics.

bumblingbovine49 · 18/09/2020 12:16

whilst in comparison Boris has ejected his rebel MPs and now has a set of MPs who are on message and well drilled.

And also mostly completely incompetent.

AlexTheLittleCat · 18/09/2020 12:32

My own personal fear is the next leader will be Sunak, who far too many have been taken in by. He is not “a nice, sensible young man” he is a dyed in the wool Tory just like the others with a seriously dubious background morally speaking. That he comes over well in press briefings is meaningless.

@Graphista How is Sunak's background morally dubious? I don't know much about him.

PerfidiousAlbion · 18/09/2020 12:33

@EnglishGirlApproximately

I live in a Midlands ex mining town which has been going down hill since the mid eighties. We've got a tory MP for thie first time in my life (I'm in my 40s) and he has huge local support. People here feel abandoned by Labour. They don't care about gender politics, inclusiveness, socialist principles etc. They care about the state of the town, the poor educational outcomes, closed shops, lack of jobs. Its clear to me that the tories dont give a shit about solving these issues but the language they use has tapped into people's prejudices and insecurities. Labour is very much the enemy here right now. Theyre waiting for Brexit to suddenly turn the towns fortunes around. Its depressing to watch.
This.

Its not that people cant see what a self-serving bunch we have for a Government at present, it’s that they’re totally alienated by the left’s choice of radical bandwagons and causes.

Southwestten · 18/09/2020 12:39

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

This was discussed on Newsnight last night. Lady they were interviewing (a pollster who is writing a book, I didn’t catch her name) said the red wall is still blue, and though wavering slightly is generally supportive of the govt
Do people still give credence to pollsters? Did any of them correctly predict the outcome of the last election?
Zilla1 · 18/09/2020 12:45

badbadbunny,

It can be difficult for the opposition after several terms. I know you were not just criticising about and I recall statements made against the tories in '79, labour up to '97 and tories up to 2010 about the capability of the shadow cabinet. That said, when the answer is Raab, Gove, Patel... then what is the question?

I didn't have personal experience of Keir Starmer when he was an official but the DPP? is a visible and challenging role, I expect there were cases that were handled poorly and administrative criticism but I don't recall anything severe enough for the general opinion to be he was unfit for political office (will pop along and check - found this www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/16/keir-starmer-past-scrutiny).

Tellmetruth4 · 18/09/2020 13:27

I’m a floating voter and there is no way I would ever vote for this incarnation of the Tory party. The Tory party used to be a party of aspiration. I now associate it with ‘last place avoiders’, the resentful and for people who look backwards. To me to vote Tory now signals that your life is shit, you’re angry and not going places. Their base seems to be moving to a similar demographic to the MAGAs in the US.

In the 80s and 90s voting Tory meant that you were already doing ok or that you believed you were going places. Not now.

MilleniumHallsWalledGarden · 18/09/2020 13:33

Its not that people cant see what a self-serving bunch we have for a Government at present, it’s that they’re totally alienated by the left’s choice of radical bandwagons and causes.

This rings true for me. I have always voted Labour and thought I always would, but I feel that they don't want me to vote for them now, so I'm not going to. In fact, I will actively vote against them, I'm so hurt by their attitude.

Katharinablum · 18/09/2020 13:37

@MilleniumHallsWalledGarden how have they hurt your feelings ? Seems somewhat extreme to pledge to never vote for a party...

OP posts:
MilleniumHallsWalledGarden · 18/09/2020 13:41

I haven't 'pledged' anything, nor said 'never' Hmm

Haven't you heard of labour losing women?

FatCatThinCat · 18/09/2020 13:42

@Graphista How is Sunak's background morally dubious? I don't know much about him.

Neither did I, so I've just checked his voting record. Here's the highlights:

  • Generally voted against laws to promote equality and human rights
  • Generally voted against a right to remain for EU nationals already in living in the UK
  • Consistently voted against paying higher benefits over longer periods for those unable to work due to illness or disability
  • Voted against removing hereditary peers from the House of Lords
  • Voted for mass surveillance of people’s communications and activities
  • Consistently voted against measures to prevent climate change
  • Consistently voted for phasing out secure tenancies for life

Tory through and through.

BovaryX · 18/09/2020 13:50

Tory through and through

Rishi Sunak is in the Conservative party. What did you expect him to be? A Marxist? The claim that his background is 'morally dubious' is partisan BS. Labour got obliterated in December in constituencies which voted Labour for a hundred years. Their cheerleaders still can't comprehend it isn't the voters who failed. It was the Labour Party and their delusional belief they occupy the moral highground. They don't. They are selling a political opinion. The majority of voters weren't buying it.

Katharinablum · 18/09/2020 13:58

@Tellmetruth4 I agree to a certain extent that the demographic of tory voters has changed somewhat in that there are now many angry dispossessed northern communities looking to the tories to improve things.
Thing is the labour party cannot win. Keep on hearing that Labour didn't listen to it's traditional heartlands. Surely Corbyn's manifesto tried to do that with its plans for more investment etc Equally if something is going to be damaging economically like brexit, it's the duty of an mp to have the balls to communicate that ?
Someone upthread commented that the educated middle class were the most vocal supporters of the labour party....What's wrong with that ? Surely having an educated knowledgable membership of whatever class says alot about the policies of a party ? The fact that the higher echelons of the tory party are full of ex eton schoolboys seems to be accepted without any question and even resolutely working class labour mps like Alan Johnson were relatively well educated.

OP posts:
MilleniumHallsWalledGarden · 18/09/2020 14:07

Someone upthread commented that the educated middle class were the most vocal supporters of the labour party....What's wrong with that ? Surely having an educated knowledgable membership of whatever class says alot about the policies of a party ?

Unfortunately educated does not equal knowledgable. In recent years it is more likely to mean indoctrinated.

Katharinablum · 18/09/2020 14:11

@BovaryX your assertion that rishi isn't morally dubious is also partisan bs too. Admittedly he doesn't seem to have the dodgy baggage that javid did.
You seem opinionated about how the labour party let down its heartlands, didn't talk to them...what should they have done if they felt that brexit was a horrendous act of self harm ? Surely being honest with the electorate is less morally dubious that just jumping on the jingostic bandwagon like the
tories, exploiting tensions etc ?

OP posts:
ListeningQuietly · 18/09/2020 14:12

The red wall turned blue because of demographic change not electoral choice change.

COVID is affecting demography up and down the country.

All bets are off for 4 years time

The EU will not back down on the end of Transition
Brexit happened months ago after all
as they have no reason to

Katharinablum · 18/09/2020 14:14

Educated = indoctrinated ? Really ? So all unis are hotbeds of lefty thinking ?

OP posts:
Graphista · 18/09/2020 14:19

But given labour aren’t saying how they would handle things actually they have from the beginning. On sm, in the few msm communications they’re able to access - people saying they’re being silent are maybe unaware of the fact that a lot of the msm simply don’t report what labour are saying.

Opinion is something which is largely created by the media so you have some awareness there yet seem to have forgotten the lack of reporting aspect.

Other parties have commented and said how they’d have done things differently too yet that is very rarely reported in msm.

but they (press) also rely on revenue from people buying their product

You really think the less than £1 per paper is where they make their money?! That’s incredibly naive! No they make their money from the advertisers they sell print space to! The “consumers” who buy the papers are actually part of the product they sell.

so they tend to be a good barometer of what they think people want to hear so they tend to be a good barometer of what ADVERTISERS want to hear, which is generally big business, this is a major reason why the press is heavily skewed towards Tory and capitalism.

but I don't know how labour can attract their votes. they really need to return to their working class roots which even with corbyn as a supposedly wc leader they didn’t do...because he’s not really working class! And neither is starmer!

Labour is SUPPOSED to be the party of the “labourers”, the grafters and it’s LONG since lost sight of that!

In addition the woke crap and trampling of women’s rights needs to go! They lost a lot of voters due to that (though not as many as due to Brexit)

Brexit I feel if they’d had the guts to come out as the anti-Brexit party given tories clearly defined themselves as pro (even though not all the Tory party are) given almost half of voters voted against Brexit that I think would have given them a significant boost in voters, because those of us who DIDN’T vote for or want Brexit really had nobody out of the major parties to vote for!

Frankly if they have any sense for the next GE they’ll have the guts to be pro Europe, but I think they’re too scared! Yet they really have little to lose by doing so!

One other point is that the debate about other things rather than brexit/covid like school funding, state of prisons, nhs seems to have been forgotten completely again not by labour or by other parties it’s just not being reported. It may not be their main concern at the moment but they haven’t forgotten completely.

Scotland was never a deciding factor to be fair uk wise this is true...

However

They waste their votes on snp who will never be in power shows you have no understanding of how Scotland is run! They’re in power up here and this has a significant effect on not only devolved matters but they use their powers on these matters to impact and mitigate the effects of non devolved matters - eg bedroom tax - not really an issue up here as it’s mitigated by discretionary housing payments which are administered via local councils and funded by Scots govt there are good reasons Scots vote snp and it’s far from just independence! You’d be mistaken to assume that.

I think also people are possibly falsely confident? That Scotland won’t gain independence as Westminster won’t allow it, I think post Brexit there’s a distinct possibility of Scotland applying to the eu for support in unilaterally deciding to and becoming independent. The effects of Brexit on Scotland will likely (and has already for many) motivate more Scots to want independence

Plus something might actually get done then up here about our crappy standards for schools, hospitals, police etc. these may be deteriorating in quality up here but I have lived all over Uk and have many friends/relatives that work in these areas and have worked in them myself in both Scotland and England and while it is disappointing that there are starting to be problems in Scotland ime and from what I’m hearing from my people in England it’s still better up here.

Dd has just started in the education system in England (after school) and has already had several tutors comment very positively on her knowledge gained from doing subjects like modern studies and her ability to debate.

When I’ve discussed what dd is learning at various stages with my English “counterparts” they’ve commented that we’re at least a year ahead up here, 2 of my friends are maths based primary teachers and they’ve commented several times that there are areas taught in Scots primaries that aren’t taught in England until 2nd or 3rd year of high school.

So don’t be so quick to criticise Scotland, I’m not saying it’s perfect! But there are definitely areas where it’s better than england.

Why are England so reluctant to let Scotland go? it’s not out of concern or kindness, just sheer greed. exactly!

This nonsense that Scotland is a drain is just that! If it weren’t Westminster and especially tories would be MORE than happy to wave us off!

double whammy really as lots of elderly Conservative voters dying will be lost votes I actually think - and have said elsewhere, that it’s because care home residents generally DON’T vote was why they were willing to throw them under the bus

BUT

You’re right that they’ve forgotten that those people have loved ones who possibly do vote!

Sometimes it feels like they are ashamed of their working class roots.

Sadly I agree with this. I’ve had discussions on here with people who don’t even realise that’s what the Labour Party was originally created for and by - the unions, which was essentially how the working class had organised themselves as a group at that time. Comments like “labour party shouldn’t be letting unions have a say” when anyone with a modicum of knowledge of the history of the Labour Party would know how ridiculous a comment that is!

There’s also a LOT of misunderstanding about what unions are, what they do, how they support their members.

If a country only has 1 party in power for most of the time, is that real democracy? I would say no, our voting system definitely needs overhauled but won’t be because it suits those who have the power to change it!

It’s like Stockholm Syndrome on a mass scale. totally agree it’s quite bizarre

I think it was a vote against Corbyn rather than a vote for BORIS yes I think that’s true. Especially when pro Tory people are STILL using corbyn as a reason why people shouldn’t vote labour when he’s no longer even leader!

At the last election Corbyn spoke a lot about benefits but I can’t remember him speaking about jobs. (He maybe did it that’s the overall impression I got) he did talk about job creation. And this was included in the manifesto too.

Tory party constantly bang on about getting people off benefits yet despite this and despite supposedly being the party of business AND the party in power they do sod all about job creation.

I find it interesting the same people who abhorred the voluntary sharing of sovereignty within the EU from which the UK could withdraw hate the idea of Scotland leaving the UK union voluntarily and love the British Empire's involuntary subjugation of millions/billions. it’s a mass case of cognitive dissonance really

It’s called giving them enough rope to hang themselves.

I agree

If they went on the attack viciously now they’d be seen as unpatriotic in the extreme.

@meridathebold excellent post at 1159

@alexthelittlecat - various reports about his actions while a banker including just prior to and during the global financial crash of 2008. He made a lot of money out of that situation possibly by contributing to it! And as I said in earlier post and as @fatcatthincat expands on he is a true blue Tory with Tory “values” of stamping on the poor, sick and disadvantaged - despite his apparent sympathetic public persona in the briefings.

@BovaryX don’t expect him to be Marxist, but there are Tory mps who aren’t as stringent about stamping on the least well off and have a modicum of social conscience - a rarity admittedly but they do exist. Sunak is most definitely not one of these.

We saw this before with “nice boy” Rory stewart who also misrepresented himself.

PatsEarrings · 18/09/2020 14:24

I wasn’t a fan of Corbyn but had high hopes for Starmer. So far he’s been a damp squib.

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