Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

However the election is a long way off, so I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen

It's going to be a long few years to the next election.

The Labour Party have spent 10 years telling the public that if they do not fit into a very narrow way of thinking, in recent years dictated by what Momentum thinks, then they are terrible people.

Prominent left leaners and Labour people (looking at you Owen) decided that the best way to promote diversity was to tell people who have a different viewpoint that they are bigots and not wanted in the party. Labour abandoned their core electorate because those kind of people don't make the party look good. They decided that virtue signalling was the way to win votes, when it became increasingly obvious that Jeremy Corbyn would throw his own Granny under a bus if he thought it meant he was sticking to his principles.

And now we are stuck with this absolute shower of incompetent bullshitters for the next few years and, unless things seriously change in the Labour Party, beyond.

I know a couple of Conservative voters, one says he'd never vote for them again. The other is still trying to be positive about them but is wavering more and more. I'm a swing voter and I never have and never would vote for Johnson.

People unfortunately on the whole aren't that bright and are easily swayed by the media (social and traditional). If Murdoch et al wants a Tory government they will get one.

I’m a floating voter but the government have not managed this situation well at all. Education has been screwed under them also.

There isn’t going to be a general election right now. Which means in a few years time people will have forgotten how appallingly this pandemic is being handled by the Tories. They will vote for the party who promises them the world on lower taxes and will vote Tory in. I despair. And desperately hope I am wrong.

But there’s not gonna be a General Election is there ? And if the EU climbs down Boris will get all the accolades for it. Won’t he !

@RozHuntleysStump

It would be worse under Labour. So, so much.

You can’t expect a perfect response to an unprecedented problem. Obviously there are issues but generally, I think the response has been good.

I honestly don’t understand this. It never ceases to amaze me how the Tories can screw up over and over again and still their acolytes stick by them. 20,000 elderly people dead through their ineptitude and still there are blue rinses with crystal balls maintaining they’re doing a good job and Labour would have done worse. Nobody could have done worse.

Yes. In the same way that anyone who thinks Biden will win the next US presidential election is deluded.

I do hope this post doesn't age well, by the way.

I live in a Midlands ex mining town which has been going down hill since the mid eighties. We've got a tory MP for thie first time in my life (I'm in my 40s) and he has huge local support. People here feel abandoned by Labour. They don't care about gender politics, inclusiveness, socialist principles etc. They care about the state of the town, the poor educational outcomes, closed shops, lack of jobs.

Its clear to me that the tories dont give a shit about solving these issues but the language they use has tapped into people's prejudices and insecurities. Labour is very much the enemy here right now. Theyre waiting for Brexit to suddenly turn the towns fortunes around. Its depressing to watch.

I think there’s a difference between being a Conservative voter and voting for Alexander “Boris”/Brexit at the last election. He’s similar to Trump, can run a good campaign but running the country is a different matter. I think there will be a leadership contest before the next election.

I've never voted Tory but amongst my friends and family I'm in the minority.
They wouldn't vote labour as much as they wouldn't vote blue.
You cannot change minds ; they are more entrenched than ever now because of brexit , mostly.
Labour need to reach out to the old labour supporters , but it won't be easy for them.

So basically the opinion is whatever the tories do, however inept, however cynical or manipulative they are, they'll always come out smelling of roses ? Even if brexit is an economic disaster, with kent a permanent car park, somehow people will choose to turn a blind eye...I actually agree. The electorate is far less forgiving of labour. I didn't necessarily agree with the Iraq war, but that still gets thrown into discussions, unlike the wholesale dismantling of many industries by thatcher which in turn led to the decline of so many northern towns. The town I live in is a disgrace, it was even the subject of an article in the national press, with hundreds of comments lamenting how depressing it was, sad shadow of its former self etc. I don't deny the majority labour council was inept but I don't think most were aware of how many millions had been cut from their budget, which was further compounded by entrenched social deprivation in the town. Despite all this we now have 2 tory mps out of 3.... Inexplicable

As much as I , I meant to write!

I'm not sure it would crumble no.

That said I don't think it will be as solid as it was in the last GE.

Reasons:

• new labour leader. Corbyn was a big turn off. Starmer has a much broader appeal

• Brexit will happen so the next election isn't going to be quite so divisive though there will I'm sure be a lot to be said about deals/negotiations and I think much will depend on how well the Conservatives manage post Brexit negotiations

• Covid, again we will have to see how this pans out. I don't think Boris is coming out of this that well but it's amazing how quickly everyone will forget if we get a vaccine.

• post Covid economy - we will have to see how well the government do in this. To be fair the Labour Party will also have to be very careful about any pledges to spend excessively (like they did last time round) when we've got a huge "bill" to pay.

• finally the red wall fell because previously staunch labour voters lost faith in the party. Predominantly over Brexit but over a whole lot of other issues - leadership, "wokeness" and fundamentally being out of touch with their traditional base especially in the North. It's unclear if they can recapture all that they lost and the hard truth is that once people found the motivation to vote Tory for the first time in their life they'll be a lot less conflicted about doing it again if Labour don't significantly raise their game.

We are a conservative country and will be for many years. :(
Labour isn't perfect and their past problems and bad decisions are often brought up , but say anything about the tory disasters and the discussion is shut down! A working class Tory is far more passionate about it than the average rich middle class ones.

@RozHuntleysStump

It would be worse under Labour. So, so much.

You can’t expect a perfect response to an unprecedented problem. Obviously there are issues but generally, I think the response has been good.

It's not the response.

Well it is I suppose. But for me it's the corruption. Contracts to all their mates with public funding - mates who have no experience to deliver what they've been given at a level others could have.

Lies lies and more lies.

The sheer disrespect for the nation.

I defended government at beginning of this - I voted for them.

I'm ashamed now of that fact.

I'm a floating voter, but I think the blue wall has most definitely fallen for me. I can't think of anything positive to say about them.

The press has been blaming the young people for the current pandemic wave ... it appeals to the older Tory voter, not the governments fault, but all those drunk 20 somethings. Unfortunately they'll be fine, and the global recession will come at the right time to hide the Brexit recession.

@The80sweregreat what will happen if brexit is a resounding failure ? If people see material changes to their quality of life that can't be explained away by the press, will they think differently ?

@AllWashedOut dentists?

@VickySunshine I actually fear that the EU will climb down due to being well aware of the sh*t that will hit the fan if we do leave without a deal. Like an errant child who can't see the foolishness of our ways, they'll give us some slack that'll be exploited for all its worth by the msm.

If the GE comes as it should, then I think there will be a good chance that however the Tories come out of the epidemic, however they comes out of Brexit, the economic fallout will be their ending. No one likes a losing coach, they always get booted off. Labour won after the war because the country was in a dire state and there was a very real need to pull together and rebuild for everyone. Not a Blue ideal! But yes, if held tomorrow, I believe the Tories would win, easily.

History tells us that Boris will be remembered as a hero