Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

The unions did more for the working man than any other movement I can think of!
It's a shame it's seen as a bad thing.
It is not seen as a bad thing
it is taken as given
same was women assuming they have rights and handing them away

the unions achieved amazing things
but then disappeared up their own swivel chair fundament
as personified by Scargill post strike

so they need to be disrupted and reborn
PR is the only way to achieve what will be best for the left, the right and the middle

@Graphista Thing is graphista the w/c don't even call themselves w/c anymore. That's where labour has a problem. Who exactly do they appeal to ?
I had a good natured spat on twitter with a guy in his 20s, w/c background, northern, not far from where I live actually. He'd done badly at school but trained to be a self employed tradesman, lived at home but earning good money so saving up to buy a house. He really couldn't understand why others his age couldn't afford to get on the housing ladder, called labour full of benefit scroungers, joined the conservative party. Thought the tories were for aspirational people like him, just didn't occur to him that aspiration, working hard etc weren't uniquely right wing qualities. He reckoned plenty of his friends were similar and I agree, that's why we now have a tory mp here. Funnily enough a similar lad from my area was in a tory election ad last year, went viral because to the average bod he was on the face of it unusual....
Tbh those w/c tub thumpers that someone spoke about upthread don't exist anymore and saying they'd appeal to w/c voters is a teeny bit patronising in itself (although well intentioned). They see labour, they think union dinasours, scroungers, liberal lefty types who are overly pc, corbyn was a massive turn off, everything was about classwar, despicable employers exploiting mw downtrodden workers, tories are seen as go getting, aspirational, positive and patriotic....somehow labour has to change and challenge this.....

I don't think it will. By the next GE, C19 will be fading away and people will be really happy about that and forget the hideous shamble of 2020 (and probably 2021) and somehow convince themselves the government did a good job, or even if they didn't, better to stick to what you know than vote Labour.

And Tories will realise that they can't rely on middle class voters 'getting more right wing as they get older' because those voters can see their kids lives are going to be worse than theirs if things stay as they are, so they'll try to take UKIP's ground by being increasingly racist, xenophobic and anti progress. And they'll succeed

Plus the media will convince people that Labour are rabid communists even if they swing to the right of where the Tories were 5 yeears ago.

Echobelly
Do you think that the northern towns will be happy with the reality of post transition UK?

Do you think that Whitehall will suddenly start to invest in the regions after the end of transition ?

The next election is not due until 2024
do you think that the current government will have kept the Blue Wall on board for 4 more years

so they'll try to take UKIP's ground by being increasingly racist, xenophobic and anti progress. And they'll succeed

If they push too far to the right, they risk alienating a lot of the people who voted for them.

I should think there's a fine balance between going too far right vs losing voters.

Just as there is between going too far left and losing voters.

Plus the media will convince people that Labour are rabid communists even if they swing to the right of where the Tories were 5 yeears ago

With talk of 4 day weeks (which is being discussed now), massive borrowing (looking at you, Sunak) etc....

ListeningQuietly genuine question, did you see the large Tory majority coming at the last election?
I didn’t and nor did the Tory voters that I know.

south
No I did not
in part because even London is North from where I live
but I did not expect Corbyn to win
and I did expect the LD wipeout
the scale of the flip was astounding
BUT on a seat by seat basis it was not a landslide
and will reverse
what is left of the country by then could be interesting

Thank you for answering my question.

Former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson has been appointed as an adviser to one of the UK's biggest gambling firms. Mr Watson, who left Parliament last year, was a campaigner for stricter rules on gambling while he was an MP. He is joining Flutter, which owns brands like Paddy Power and Betfair

Morally bankrupt. Fiscally bankrupt. Unelectable.

To fair @Bovaryx he's not the only one behaving in an morally questionable way. Not a good course of action but he has said it's for advice re problematic gambling in view of sweeping changes to the industry coming up later in the year. Who knows, watch this space...

I live in what for generations was a Labour stronghold. Labour took it absolutely for granted. No investment and certainly no attempts to resurrect the local industries, rather here you go, have some benefits. Labour managed to lose one of the seats in an earlier GE and still completely ignored the area. People woke up to Labour only being interested in the opinion of London.

Then Brexiit happened. Guess what, when your area has been run down for years, change is a good idea. This didn't fit with the ideology so the slurs started. We're a stubborn lot.

Then Corbyn happened and more of the prizes for everyone nonsense. It isn't going to be offshore companies paying for it, it will be people who bother to graft. Too many round here know professional shirkers who've never bothered with work but live comfortable lives.

Labour got annhialiated. Labour still don't get it. The habit of voting Red got broken and it's going to take a hell of a lot to bring it back.

For what it's worth, Labour IMHO died with Smith. Just had a look at the background of the Shadow Cabinet. Trade union or PPE/education straight into politics. No one gives the impression of knowing what putting in a shift is.

If Labour remember what they are supposed to stand for (clue - it's in the name) then they may have a chance.

Working class red wall / blue wall means different things, working class covers the group that relies on benefits, it also includes jam ( just about managing) working often NMW sometimes zero hours but it also includes lots and lots of tradespeople small businesses with 1-5 employees shops mechanics plumbers hairdressers construction some of who are earning enough to pay higher rate tax, generally they are more socially conservative marriage 2.4 children etc they gave houses cars and holidays.

Also people often forget that as a group BAME are more religious than average and socially conservative and have little time for woken essential and find it difficult to support the whole agenda and ideology of BLM because a lot of it goes against their own moral values. They believe man and woman are self explanatory terms that have worked for millenia. The woke agenda of Momentum is alienating.

To be honest no government in Europe is getting praised for handling pandemic well not Spain, France Italy, Holland some small countries maybe doing better but not large countries with big international airports and businesses Germany is the only large country at present that seems to have done better, the more stringent lockdown in Spain and France appears to have achieved nothing. The furlough scheme here is pretty much the same as in France lockdown rules vary very little

The differences between Scotland and England are not significant and the rules are virtually the same, as many if not more % died in care in Scotland the pattern repeats all through Europe, intrinsically though appearing a buffoon Boris has not really done much worse or Better than his counterparts in France etc, the "gilet jaune" are still protesting in France it has just not been mentioned now Covid dominates news. My parents live in a blue wall constituency they say no sign that people will actually vote labour though they may not like Boris

I think that @ListeningQuietly has pointed out, the data is very interesting.

I hope that Labour are looking at that - in the same way that Cummings is - with his NASA style mission control. Understanding the demographics at a local level and getting the 'right' votes out is so important. I really hope that Labour is looking at Cummings and the approach used.

The 'wanting to get Brexit done' effect and the Brexit party effect on the Tory vote are also interesting. As will be the demographic changes brought about by Covid 19.

And as has been said, it's not about getting all the seats back. Just about getting enough seats to get a hung Parliament.

We are in hung Parliament territory at the moment if you look at the current opinion polls. However, local polling is needed to see how the current situation is at a local level with opinion. But nationally, the polls are back to what it was in in 2017.

There is a lot to do in 3 years. Meanwhile, the Government tear themselves apart, move further to the right and alienate more of their traditional voters all in an attempt to woo more voters on the right of their party.

I think it's a political plan to restrict our freedoms for at least 3 years, so the current government can be seen as caring and can't be blamed by the media for "excess deaths". Then approx 18 months before the next GE restrictions will be removed, the economy will naturally bounce back somewhat and everyone dim enough will be saying what a good job in protecting us all that they did...

@chomalungma

I think that *@ListeningQuietly* has pointed out, the data is very interesting.

I hope that Labour are looking at that - in the same way that Cummings is - with his NASA style mission control. Understanding the demographics at a local level and getting the 'right' votes out is so important. I really hope that Labour is looking at Cummings and the approach used.

The 'wanting to get Brexit done' effect and the Brexit party effect on the Tory vote are also interesting. As will be the demographic changes brought about by Covid 19.

And as has been said, it's not about getting all the seats back. Just about getting enough seats to get a hung Parliament.

We are in hung Parliament territory at the moment if you look at the current opinion polls. However, local polling is needed to see how the current situation is at a local level with opinion. But nationally, the polls are back to what it was in in 2017.

There is a lot to do in 3 years. Meanwhile, the Government tear themselves apart, move further to the right and alienate more of their traditional voters all in an attempt to woo more voters on the right of their party.

My geeky ds is making a predictions map of the UK based on local polling (he claims - but he's only 13 and I don't know where he's getting his data from!) and has identified several seats that he claims will turn back red next time. As I said, I'm certainly not convinced but I bloody hope so.

Surely so much depends on how Brexit turns out. I agree with the pp above that by 2024 the Covid response will have largely faded from people's memories (assuming a vaccine is in place...) and obviously Johnson will be long gone, but Brexit is another matter. It looks like it's going to be a crushingly hard one and the people in the red wall seats will suffer hugely. How that is managed, and how Labour react, will be crucial. I think Starmer has handled Brexit brilliantly since taking over by refusing to be drawn and giving the Tories the space to get their deal so he can't be accused of blocking it, which Johnson is clearly itching to do. Once the transition is over and we're fully out and reliant on whatever trade deals they've managed to get then the gloves can come off and he'll be free to say, 'This is on you, this is what you have brought us to.' Tories will lay the blame on the EU and Starmer will need to find a way to counter that argument without being accused of lacking patriotism. That will be the challenge, but I think he's shown himself to be a clever strategist so far so it looks promising.

And I agree that Labour have indeed suggested alternatives to the government's approach re Covid, but these haven't been given much airtime. However, this may be a good thing as the average voter, who doesn't follow the news particularly closely won't be left with associations of Starmer 'badmouthing the govn/country in a crisis.' When campaigning starts and in the year or two before, that'll be the time for Labour to make sure their vision for a better future gets out there.

@roarfeckingroarr

I think the government are doing a pretty poor job, but I will still vote Tory again at the next election.

Why? I’m genuinely intrigued by this.

then it needs to win the majority of English and Welsh seats I’m completely bemused by the welsh swing to both Brexit and tories - both are massively against their self interest imo but I’m willing to admit I’m not fully informed on welsh politics, any welsh mners care to comment?

I think a few things need to be taken into account when looking at that, one of the first things I think affected the vote is the new prevalence of the right wing media, Spar, which is still one of the most popular local convenience store gives away a free Scum with every purchase, this has been happening for a few years and I've noticed a general shift in tone up here in the North, next thing to be taken into account is the amount of immigration of retired English and the emigration of young professionals into English cities after all there are few options left in Wales unless you move down south but if youre going to move it may as well be to England is the thinking, also education in poorer cities and counties, austerity seems to have pushed some people harder towards its architects for some reason.

One stand out moment for me was watching a BBC on location report during the Brexit debate and they were talking to some young lad in the valleys, he was stood in front of the sign to his town, on the town sign was the usual EU flag and the statement about regeneration using EU money, and this young lad said 'what have the EU ever done for us?' [eye roll]

I can't see a GE but the Conservatives basically one their majority on the single ticket of Brexit being a success. Brexit won't be a selling point at the next election so unless they can find another populist cause to attach themselves to I don't think they will win again. It will be about the point during the political cycle where there is usually a change in power anyway.

*roarfeckingroarr(
I think the government are doing a pretty poor job, but I will still vote Tory again at the next election.

Why? I’m genuinely intrigued by this

I think that is a really important question.

Even if you think a Government is doing a poor job, why would you still vote for them...

Understanding why people actively want to vote for one party - or why they won't vote for another party....

No doubt Cummings is on that.

I think people give the tories chances that labour would never get. People make excuses for them whereas with labour any mistake is to be expected and they have to aspire to higher moral code.

@Katharinablum but that situation you describe rather smacks of a lack of knowledge among certain working class people surely?

I agree that what working class is and is about needs to be communicated better, and perhaps "rebranded"?

So that the current working class people can rightfully be proud to be so while also recognising how this govt doesn't actually serve them.

I think the tories from as far back as Cameron have done an amazing job of fooling certain sectors of the electorate into thinking the tories are "their" party

We saw this a little when Cameron dodged questions many times in the lead up to the 2015(?) election about whether their planned swingeing benefits cuts would also apply to tax credits specifically working tax credits. A lot of the electorate falsely believed this meant they wouldn't be cut and voted accordingly...only to be stung by said cuts!

Iirc there was an audience member on question time (there were a few actually) who was absolutely livid that she'd been affected by the cuts as that wasn't what she THOUGHT she was voting for, she thought she was voting for "other" and "less worthy" people to suffer from cuts! So it was difficult to sympathise with her and others like her.

There have been other examples too.

Personally I repeatedly feel - and say - to those who try and argue the Tory party is supportive of their "type" of person (small business, sole traders - which your young man would fall into, "traditional" families - ie husband in paid work wife sahm etc) that actually no they're not - and they show this in their policies and actions!

That young man as far as this govt is concerned IS a n'erdowell "scrounger" too. Why? Because he was still being supported by his parents as an adult (I wonder are they in receipt of tax credits? Benefits?) and because he lacked academic ability or even worse if the reason he didn't do well at school was poor behaviour.

As a tradesman, what does he do when he's off sick? I'm guessing he claims some kind of sickness benefit?

What would he do if he had an accident or became ill in such a way which meant he could no longer do that manual work? What's he going to do when he gets too old to do it? Because the way things are going state pensions are getting later and later.

I'm assuming you challenged all this with him?

Did you ask him if he knew sick/disabled people and how they're treated by this govt? I'd be very surprised if he didn't.

I agree we do need to communicate to people such as he that being working class is NOT shameful or embarrassing and that the Tory party is the party for the wealthy, well and well provided for!

@BovaryX perhaps he's hoping to change things from within?

For what it's worth, Labour IMHO died with Smith I would agree with that. My now exh at the time of his death was "apolitical" and bewildered at how saddened I was by the news of his passing.

But the trade union people may know what it means to put a shift in if they came up through the union that way. But I agree the PPE straight into politics people - of all colours - piss me off!

Personally I think BEFORE becoming MPs all candidates should:

Have at least 5 years working in a non political job

Spend at least 6 months living on the minimum level of benefits income.

Bet we'd see a lot of changes if that happened!

@JustAnotherPoster00 thanks for replying re wales

Did not know that about spar! That's shocking! But as a point of interest as an ex army wife I feel it's important to point out that bloody spar have replaced the naafi as the convenience store on most forces bases! Which means they're ALSO corrupting those votes too from sounds of things!

austerity seems to have pushed some people harder towards its architects for some reason. yes this I really don't understand!

on the town sign was the usual EU flag and the statement about regeneration using EU money, and this young lad said 'what have the EU ever done for us?' [eye roll] yes! This is what utterly bemuses me! The welsh especially welsh farmers benefitted more than any other part of the Uk from EU investment and support and yet voted for Brexit - why?! It makes zero sense!

@MarjorytheTrashHeap I hope you're right but fear you're not

Good comments @Graphista
I doubt the lad even realised any of those things. I think it’s about identity. To vote Tory is whatever the reality aspirational to some people and suggests that you’ve made it. I suggested he’d only done it to network with the old guys in the club

I think a lot of people are about to realise how the benefit system really works.

I suggested he’d only done it to network with the old guys in the club probably true - which is daft really as he could have voted labour and lied to them! Votes being private and all!