Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

There won't be.

Historically, everyone skews conservative during a war or huge crisis. Brexit was that landslide crisis, and the pandemic is going to largely be remembered positively for this government unless children start dying in huge numbers, and that is the god's honest truth. And I say that as someone firmly liberal. Just got a few degrees in politics.

What else do you think @Confrontayshunme

Out of interest, as someone who knows and understands politics? (For those of us who are perpetually perplexed!)

Didn't labour win the first election after WW2 though?
Chances are all this will all be over long before the next election. The British public only care about the issue that is facing them at the time. Memories are short. You don't hear a lot of Brexit discussion anymore for example

Brexit was that landslide crisis, and the pandemic is going to largely be remembered positively for this government unless children start dying in huge numbers, and that is the god's honest truth

You think so?

@Confrontayshunme

Historically, everyone skews conservative during a war or huge crisis. Brexit was that landslide crisis, and the pandemic is going to largely be remembered positively for this government unless children start dying in huge numbers, and that is the god's honest truth. And I say that as someone firmly liberal. Just got a few degrees in politics.

That's fascinating.

I'd love to hear more, especially with your Three Degrees ooh ooh, ooh oh, mmm precious moments

Prince Charles' favourite group, btw.

Conservatives will win the next election. :(
Flame away and I hate writing this and people will just forget this latest crisis or believe the right wing press again.
They will huff and puff and put their x in the Tory column. They will Still moan a lot but nothing will change.

I'm on twitter
Enough said.

I think that there has been a huge rise in far right groups (and informal thinking) over the last ten years in numerous countries, both Western and not, poor and rich. Even climate change sceptics are realising internally that there is less affordable housing, less advantage, less social mobility, and less resources, and it is only going to get worse.
I watched Years and Years and while it was stark and awful, I don't think it was far wrong. People are tired of Boris and his Tory cronies making shit decisions, but the alternative is a big change to how things are now. Corbin lost because people ultimately want a big army, no outsiders, to make no changes to their lives to benefit the environment, education, food standards or poorer people, all while hoping that the promised capitalist trickle down is going to reach them at any moment.

People are tired of Boris and his Tory cronies making shit decisions, but the alternative is a big change to how things are now

I'm old enough to remember a Labour Government.

It depends on Scotland. If they gain independence in the meantime, Labour won't win another GE.

It would be worse under Labour. So, so much.

You can’t expect a perfect response to an unprecedented problem. Obviously there are issues but generally, I think the response has been good.

The public may be tired of this regime now, but the Tories do reinvent themselves to appeal to the masses when it counts. Sir Kier Starmer is a ok as an individual but to defeat the Conservatives you need cunning tactics and labour are not very good at that. Not enough money or big backers. They are just not devious enough.

Obviously there are issues but generally, I think the response has been good

Some good things.
Some crap things.

Plus a lot of lying and bluster.

I think if they held an election now then the Tories would win. Plenty of people are grumbling about the governments handling of the pandemic but I asked a swinging voter friend (from the north) how she’d vote in an election now and she said conservative without a doubt. Not sure what to make of that.

The response hasn't been great , but people will forget and the press will spin it away and airbrush it in four years time to be everyone's fault but theirs.

Scotland will not “gain“ independence. They had a “once in a generation” referendum and voted to remain, it’s not best of three

Scotland need Westminster to agree to another vote and the Tories will say no.
That will rumble on for ages.

The public may be tired of this regime now, but the Tories do reinvent themselves to appeal to the masses when it counts

How many years was Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in power for?

1997 - 2010

@Confrontayshunme

Historically, everyone skews conservative during a war or huge crisis. Brexit was that landslide crisis, and the pandemic is going to largely be remembered positively for this government unless children start dying in huge numbers, and that is the god's honest truth. And I say that as someone firmly liberal. Just got a few degrees in politics.

What, like the Liberal government post-WW1 and the Labour government post-WW2?

A huge rise in informal thinking

How very dare they.

True about Blair and Brown ! Maybe a change like that might help but I still think not ! Not now. Just my opinion.

For the moment, I'm minded to think the blue wall would remain. What southerners have never understood is how things have been for those t'up north for a long time. Parts of the north have taken the brunt of immigration and have struggled to integrate cultures/religions. I recall over 15 years ago meeting young dentists, lovely people in many ways but who despised the Muslim men washing their feet in the local boozer before prayers (among other complaints). I was so shocked to hear them speak like this but if these relatively open and educated liberal sorts thought this way about immigrants back then think how widespread that feeling must be today. Tories have been the only party with any serious intentions to lower immigration. Like it or not, immigration was and still is a major vote swinger. It was wot won Brexit after all.

Anyway...just for interest

And we haven't seen the impact of Brexit or whatever financial measures are needed after this pandemic.

No I don't think you are deluded. I think that the last election was probably a high water mark for support for the conservatives. I think that Brexit will play out very differently in the next election, as there won't be the support to "get Brexit done". I think that to a greater or lesser extent there will be some disappointment amongst Brexit supporters when they see what it actually looks like. The current Labour leadership appears to be doing well at landing some blows on the government, but at some point is going to need to identify what it stands for. However the election is a long way off, so I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen.