Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

Fuck em personally.

If they want to vote for a party that fucks up their lives and their children's lives, then they deserve what they get.

Sorry just to add to my post above...

I think people forget that previously long standing Labour voters in the North didn't only provide an affirmative vote for Boris and "get Brexit done" it was also very much a "fuck you" to Labour.

They weren't in conflict about their vote - they were fervent about it.

Labour has got a hell of a lot of prove to those voters.

Boris might not be doing great on Covid but I genuinely don't get the sense from family in the North (who did the red/blue switcharoo in the last GE) that they believe for a second that Labour would be doing any better.

The best I can say for Labour is that they are convinced they did a good thing as it forced Corbyn to resign and they are watching to see how Starmer fares.

In the meantime, the Tory rhetoric about building up the North and the enthusiasm of the new MP's is being well received - Labour have had the rug pulled from under them in this regard in the promising the same just looks like a policy hijack.

Finally Labour still have real problems. Local CLP's are still over run with momentum activists and candidates are still being chosen for their allegiance to the Corbyn mantra. We still see a Labour MP's tweeting absolute rubbish and pressing the very ideologies that the electorate rejected (that Starmer still hasn't reigned in) whilst in comparison Boris has ejected his rebel MPs and now has a set of MPs who are on message and well drilled.

I'm on twitter

OP
This explains why in 2016 you were horrified by Brexit. And horrified that Hillary lost to Trump. This explains why in December 2019 you thought Corbyn would get a landslide victory. This explains why shock and awe is your default response to recent election results. Twitter. Not a predictor of external reality.

I'm a floating voter. I don't support any one party. I would be highly surprised if The Conservatives got in next time round, especially if they had Boris at the helm. There are so many cabinet members that have performed poorly. I couldn't have voted for Corbyn, but I think that Kier is a good bet. It is rare for any govt to secure more than two terms in any event. A rotation after ten years is usually good for the country. Despite all the vitriol online that, would have everyone believe that we are a country divided, there are a lot of moderates (such as myself) who are looking for fairly central positions. They are just less vocal.

Yes, you are deluded.

This was discussed on Newsnight last night. Lady they were interviewing (a pollster who is writing a book, I didn’t catch her name) said the red wall is still blue, and though wavering slightly is generally supportive of the govt

I don’t think the EU will climb down as such, they need to protect the SM. I think there is room for compromise on both sides. Regardless, the country is not ready for Brexit, deal or no deal. We don’t have the infrastructure, customs agents, IT etc even with a deal. No deal would be even worse as we need to sort many other things like Reach etc. The only way the government can turn this around is either a massive u turn (staying in CU) or by agreeing a deal that has a long implementation period which effectively extends transition so we have more time to prepare. I’m not confident that they will do either though. As for me, I’ve previously voted Tory as DP has a business and I always thought they were the party of business, I doubt I will vote for them again though. Like a PP, it’s the cronyism that’s getting me more than anything. If they had awarded contracts to the most capable rather than a load of their mates it would make all their policy failings at least slightly acceptable. Instead they are rinsing the taxpayer to enrich their friends and contacts and some people have unfortunately paid for that with their life (shocking record on tracking app, testing fiasco, useless PPE etc but Liz Truzz’s friend makes millions from contract)

Twitter is an echo chamber which no longer reflects real life. I think I most people are fairly supportive of the current government even where I live which was previously a firm labour hold for many many years.

Sometimes you have to wonder what the Conservatives would have to do to lose support amongst people.

Kier Starmer is going to have to massively up his game. He’s practically invisible.

I don't think so. A lot of people will have their opinions skewed by the gutter press.
We'll see what happens- I think IF there is a deep recession, people might vote for a change of power.

@BovaryX

I'm on twitter

OP
This explains why in 2016 you were horrified by Brexit. And horrified that Hillary lost to Trump. This explains why in December 2019 you thought Corbyn would get a landslide victory. This explains why shock and awe is your default response to recent election results. Twitter. Not a predictor of external reality.

What arrant nonsense. I was horrified by Brexit and Clinton’s defeat. It most certainly wasn’t Twitter that led my thinking. Nobody in their right mind thought Corbyn would get a landslide, the best even the most ardent Labour supporter hoped for was a hung parliament with Labour the biggest party.

@chomalungma

Sometimes you have to wonder what the Conservatives would have to do to lose support amongst people.

Yep. If the current showers actions haven't done it (and they don't seem to have), then I wonder if anything would.

@BovaryX you are pigeonholing me as some kind of liberal lefty woke type living in a m/c bubble. I'm not, far from it. Fwiw I couldn't stand corbyn, thought he was toxic and a huge vote loser. But it really beggars belief that people consider the very party that forced much harder swingeing cuts on already pisspoor areas to some kind of saviour...
I wasn't suprised at all about brexit. I read our local newspaper and see the comments. People wanted change simple as. Sick of austerity, sick of feeling unsafe in town, or 'outnumbered' as one friend said. Ordinary decent people I know, whether nhs work colleagues or friends I knew from church ,wanted out. I didn't agree but could see their point.
Re trump, well the way we voted for brexit why wouldn't trump have won ? Clever targeting, pushing the boundaries, steve bannon was the mastermind and it's well known that farage and others were in contact.
Funnily enough BovaryX alot of labour supporters up here aren't necessarily all well off and in an ivory tower.

@Wherearefoxssocks

My auntie recently told me something VERY interesting about the Labour victory in 1945.

My nan voted Labour (natural Liberal/sometime Tory) because she thought Churchill would send her husband to fight in the Far East should he have won the election. It seems that many people were keen to avoid prolonging the war and being re-posted to e.g. Burma.

I always thought it was the promise of an NHS, but apparently everyone was scared that there'd be another draft.

It really isn't about Red or Blue - that is the stuff of Nineteen Eighty Four. It should be about a sea change in politics.

You hate me because I vote Blue (or yellow or purple) and I hate you because you vote Red (or green or pink) - and we blame each other for all that's wrong. That won't help any of us. And really - what choice do we have? I have to vote for one or the other. As like as not I'll be living in a constituency with a huge majority either way - so it hardly matters. (My own MP is utterly useless. The seat is dead safe though. He is not local, he does not care, he has no experience - yet he won by a mile)

We need a re-think - and we have people who can do that - but I don't see it happening unfortunately.

Time will tell. Keir Starmer has been leader of the opposition for 6 months during a pandemic. It really isn't long enough to decide how the country would vote again. I think they would vote blue now purely because not much is known about him. Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works with everything and we at least need to get that out of the way first before we can really get an inkling of what public perception is. Most people I know think the government has been useless, but that is just talk and who knows what they really think.

there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking

@Katharinablum

In the last election, the Conservatives won an 80 seat majority because constituencies that had voted Labour for a hundred years switched teams. From what you have written above, you don't understand why. Will Conservative voters abandon the government in four years? Maybe. Will switcheroo Labour voters return to Labour? Maybe. A week is a long time in politics. Four years is incalculable. But one thing is for sure. Politicos who rely on Twitter to take the temperature of the room? End up on the sidelines.

Problem is, labour have also lied over brexit by doing everything in their power to block it which upset a lot of labour voters. So I think this will stick longer. We’ve yet to see what brexit will truly look like under the tories so if there was a GE tomorrow I’m not sure that the country will turn red.
Regarding the pandemic. Loads of errors. Not sure any other party would have done better though.
Problem is, people are so busy slating the other side, they don’t see problems with their side. (Which I think is a big problem in society today. Too many extremists on both sides of the fence). All parties have faults. You just have to pick the best of a bad bunch ... not sure labour have done enough just yet to get back the 80 seat majority.

It would be worse under Labour. So, so much.

You can’t expect a perfect response to an unprecedented problem. Obviously there are issues but generally, I think the response has been good.

Really?

You think a Labour PM would have attended less COBRA meetings in January/February when the crisis was building?

You think we'd have had something worse than the Durham/ Barnard Castle eye testing incident under Labour?

You think Labour would have put someone in charge of Test and Trace who had already fucked up with TalkTalk?

You think that whoever got the job instead of baroness Harding would have actually provided less tests than they are now?

You think a Labour Health Secretary would have done worse than urge us all to get tested if we had been in contact with someone who later tested positive then blamed us for the country running out of tests?

You think a Labour PM would have done worse than say he expects people to abide by the rules, while all the time intending to.break international law himself?

You think a labour PM would have more than 5 Ex PMs (including his own party) criticising him for said breaking of international law?

You think a Labour government would have locked down later than 23 March?

Just off the top of my head

Interesting thread. I think Starmer is soooo much more palatable to many centrist voters who didn't like Johnson but would never vote for Corbyn.

On social media I'm seeing more negative comments about the Tories re their handling of the Covid pandemic than ever about Brexit. They have lost support.

But then i see the polls that say 42% would vote Tory and I despair.

Although Covid and Brexit are awful, we (and the rest of the world) seriously need to tackle climate change...

I've noticed people who never normally talk about politics criticise this government now, so I wouldnt be sure they'll win again. But there's a rumour Johnson will go next year, so it really depends who's next. I can't see people voting en masse for Michael Gove or Priti Patel. If it's Rishi Sunak he might do okay. But it's a long time to go and Keir Starmer looks quite appealing.

@BovaryX you’re wrong. I know exactly why. I live up here. I know the mindset. I live with one

It depends on Scotland. If they gain independence in the meantime, Labour won't win another GE.

I would love to agree as a Scot that our not gaining Independence May help you but sadly I think you’re doing so in vain if you’re hoping Scotland will turn back to voting labour in any meaningful way.

It’ll never turn Tory all over but there are pockets, and most socialist thinkers up here tend to vote snp (even though they’re no socialists!)

Scots socialists have felt abandoned by labour for a LONG time.

I’ve lived all over Uk and have many English friends/relatives by marriage and they almost all are anti labour.

A few are staunch Tory and NOTHING the tories can do will change that ultimately.

They’re not happy with things as they are currently, at first they tried to blisteringly defend, then they went quiet, recently they’re actually critical of Johnson - which is a major turnaround for them - but by the time of the next GE there will be a new Tory leader, Johnson will have slunk under some rock probably editing some minor journal in USA, and people do have woefully short memories...

Because it’s NOT just Johnson that’s done this, he’s not a dictator much as that would possibly suit him, the damage has been done by his whole govt and notably certain non-MPs!

But they will blame Johnson when he’s gone and come up smelling of roses! Even if a GE were held now I don’t think those voters would vote differently, I think they might possibly not vote at all, but they wouldn’t vote differently.

My own personal fear is the next leader will be Sunak, who far too many have been taken in by. He is not “a nice, sensible young man” he is a dyed in the wool Tory just like the others with a seriously dubious background morally speaking. That he comes over well in press briefings is meaningless.

@rozhuntleysstump and others of the same opinion

Exactly what reason do you have for thinking Labour would have definitely done worse?

Exactly what about the response do you think was good?!

Do you really think a likely 2nd wave of covid, normal winter illness peak and no deal Brexit all likely occurring at the same time - right after Christmas - is good planning?!

I don’t understand why you would think that at all!

The public may be tired of this regime now, but the Tories do reinvent themselves to appeal to the masses when it counts

How many years was Tony Blair and Gordon Brown in power for?

1997 - 2010

That WAS the tories reinventing themselves - as new labour!

But then another fear of mine (and others have said so too) is that starmer is another Blair

they'll [EU] give us some slack that'll be exploited for all its worth by the msm. I think/hope you’re right but I think we’ll still be hit hard by Brexit.

Those Tory voters I know are south east people who will very much be bearing the brunt of traffic issues etc and yet even that hasn’t swayed them in the past, though admittedly largely as they think it won’t happen! January could prove very illuminating to certain people!

If they want to vote for a party that fucks up their lives and their children's lives, then they deserve what they get. while I sympathise with the sentiment unfortunately it’s not JUST those who voted Tory who’s lives get fucked up - it’s the rest of us too!!

It is rare for any govt to secure more than two terms in any event. not so rare in the uk in the last century!

Thatcher won 3 elections and was PM For over 10 years and then major won as Tory leader the next election after her departure, Blair also won 3 elections and served for over 10 years...

The currently electorate hate the idea of change...even if it might be good for them!

We haven’t had a true socialist govt in over 40 years

A rotation after ten years is usually good for the country. while in my dreams a permanent socialist govt would be great, I have to agree. I’d just prefer none of those rotations were Tory, there are other options!

Certainly I think we should have a system like USA where a prime minister can serve max 2 terms. I don’t think lengthy premierships are good for anyone!

What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?

There isn't one! I also think they've captured the Brexit voters forever regardless of how bad it turns out to be.