Am I deluded to think the blue wall might crumble if there were a GE ?

[Katharinablum]

Appreciate there's not going to be a GE for at least 3 years. Also appreciate that the british electorate seems to have a short memory regarding tory governments...
I'm on twitter and a regular comment from certain elements is that longstanding Labour leave constituencies turned tory in the last GE. Usually associated with crowing about how labour is finished. Back in dec 2019 I would have struggled to disagree, but with a new leader at the helm things are looking up, that and the absolute ineptitude of the government's management of the pandemic, plus their sheer dishonesty over brexit, I'm daring to wonder whether those resolutely blue constituencies in the home counties and shires might turn a little pinker ? What's the tipping point to make life long tories desert them ?
People up here in the north are more politically fickle, there's alot of w/c dislike and distrust of labour, far more than they deserve, whereas the tories have escaped it relatively speaking, despite years of ideological austerity that hurt the north far more than the EU ever did..Just wondered if people thought there would be a realignment in the way huge areas of the country voted, what with a chaotic brexit pretty inevitable as well as the fall out from covid.. .

@The80sweregreat

Covid has given the Conservatives a 'get out clause ' when ( or if) it all goes wrong over Brexit. We font know yet how that will pan out. An historian will have a field day with the last four years of political history which has been so turbulent.

Well it has and it hasn’t. If the handling of Covid had been effective you’d be right. Unfortunately it’s been such a shit show that The Telegraph, of all papers, is giving the government a sound kicking over it and one columnist is very vociferous in condemning Johnson this morning. Any mention of it is likely to get the response of “And look what a mess you made of that”.

God I hope so, op. Haven't read full thread but are there any conservative voters on here who consider the government is doing a good job at the moment?

@The80sweregreat

The public may be tired of this regime now, but the Tories do reinvent themselves to appeal to the masses when it counts. Sir Kier Starmer is a ok as an individual but to defeat the Conservatives you need cunning tactics and labour are not very good at that. Not enough money or big backers. They are just not devious enough.

You can't get more devious than Gordon Brown and he couldn't win a GE.

Yes, maybe the right wing press sticking the boot in might stir up a bit of anger!

The Conservative Party no longer exists in relation to its historical values and people are starting to realise this.

Next year will be interesting when Brexit causes food and medicine shortages on top of the pandemic and the support that is currently holding up the economy runs out.

The problem is the lack of a strong opposition to fill the political vacuum although Kier Starmer is starting to address this.

I think, historically, a party that wins one election with a large majority usually wins the next one so I think it's likely we will have a conservative government for sometime to come.

I watched an interview with a political scientist who spoke about a presentation he had given to both the conservative party and the labour party on the same day. He said that the labour party invited him into a room full of people who politely listened to his presentation, asked no questions and quietly ushered him out but the conservative party presentation had only one person in attendance and they listened intently to his.presentation.and then grilled him afterwards. He was left with the impression that the conservatives were willing to listen to new information and change course if necessary but the labour party had a plan and ignored new information if it didn't support what they thought they already knew. The aftermath of the last general election would support that analysis; the labour party blamed everyone for their defeat apart from themselves, including the stupidity of voters! This is not a strategy for winning hearts and minds. I would agree that under Corbyn the labour started to look like student activists rather than a political force to be reckoned with.

The same situation is being played out in the US now and I suspect Trump will win.

I have never voted for either the labour or conservative party and so I usually just hope for a government to face an effective opposition, that has been sadly lacking for sometime which is depressing; I value democracy.

I can see that more conservative views are gaining mainstream acceptance, the left will blame stupid and bigotry when in fact they responsible for cultivating the conditions for ultra conservative views to flourish. People want equality for all but they are pushing back against identity politics. I hope Keir Starmer is alert to this and can play a part in averting what would be a disaster for a liberal democracy.

If the last election taught me anything it’s that I live in an echo chamber, on here and real life.

I couldn’t believe how they got in last time.

To be fair, I expect some communities will benefit from Brexit and these will continue to support Boris's administration until either Brexit is complete and/or it no longer serves their interests to do so. The community of mass media owners, the community of large tech/social media firms and oligarchs and the community of foreign powers who hated a united EU, effective media regulation, effective tech regulation and the constraints of an ECJ that would not be subject to direct political control. It seems kind of lots of other communities that absolutely will be disadvantaged by Brexit to help the above. One dimension of power is to get someone to act against their own interests.

@FOJN

I think, historically, a party that wins one election with a large majority usually wins the next one so I think it's likely we will have a conservative government for sometime to come.

I watched an interview with a political scientist who spoke about a presentation he had given to both the conservative party and the labour party on the same day. He said that the labour party invited him into a room full of people who politely listened to his presentation, asked no questions and quietly ushered him out but the conservative party presentation had only one person in attendance and they listened intently to his.presentation.and then grilled him afterwards. He was left with the impression that the conservatives were willing to listen to new information and change course if necessary but the labour party had a plan and ignored new information if it didn't support what they thought they already knew. The aftermath of the last general election would support that analysis; the labour party blamed everyone for their defeat apart from themselves, including the stupidity of voters! This is not a strategy for winning hearts and minds. I would agree that under Corbyn the labour started to look like student activists rather than a political force to be reckoned with.

The same situation is being played out in the US now and I suspect Trump will win.

I have never voted for either the labour or conservative party and so I usually just hope for a government to face an effective opposition, that has been sadly lacking for sometime which is depressing; I value democracy.

I can see that more conservative views are gaining mainstream acceptance, the left will blame stupid and bigotry when in fact they responsible for cultivating the conditions for ultra conservative views to flourish. People want equality for all but they are pushing back against identity politics. I hope Keir Starmer is alert to this and can play a part in averting what would be a disaster for a liberal democracy.

FOJN

That's an interesting perspective. I think this point in particular is key:

the labour party blamed everyone for their defeat apart from themselves, including the stupidity of voters! This is not a strategy for winning hearts and minds

This contempt for voters is not a good look. As you say, it is evident in the US. If the 'basket of deplorables' reject Biden in November, the Twitter outrage will be audible on Mars.

They got in last time because it was much more important to Labour and the MSM and businesses to keep Corbyn out than it was to keep the Tories out.

Now they have Keir who is completely nondescript and giving a very good impression of someone who doesn't want to win an election. He's a caretaker leader who doesn't care about the areas they need to win.

We are in the middle of a pandemic. Our death rate is horrendous. The government is voting to break international law. They are awarding massive contracts to their friends and cronies. And on top of that, they have shown themselves incapable of delivering Brexit. Labour should be all over them. Instead, Labour are supporting them on Covid eg return to schools, etc; being wishy-washy on women's rights and identity politics. Labour are doing a good impression of standing for nothing and falling for everything.

I never thought I'd see the old mining constituencies return conservative MPs in my lifetime, (I was a student when the miners strike was on) and there would have been even more of them gone blue if UKIP hadn't fielded candidates in some which split the pro-brexit vote.

My own view is that the modern Labour Party and the affluent educated middle class urban intellectuals which seem to be its most vocal supporters don't have a great deal in common with the middle and northern parts of the country - what were for many years the industrial heartlands - from where most of the Labour Partys electoral support comes. They lead completely different lives and have no idea of what it's like to live somewhere where the traditional way of life has ended, nothing's really replaced it and so it's hard to move on. Having to live on benefits at at the mercy of the welfare state can be pretty tough and I certainly wouldn't recommend it.

No I don't really see solid conservative constituencies changing particularly, but never say never.

No idea what will happen at the next election, my own view is that it's such an unbelievable situation we are in, whoever was in charge would be criticised whilst doing the best they could with the information available. The tories have rightly thrown money at everything and I worry about how difficult it's going to be to pay it all back.

FOJN: well said.

@MeridaTheBold

They got in last time because it was much more important to Labour and the MSM and businesses to keep Corbyn out than it was to keep the Tories out.

Now they have Keir who is completely nondescript and giving a very good impression of someone who doesn't want to win an election. He's a caretaker leader who doesn't care about the areas they need to win.

We are in the middle of a pandemic. Our death rate is horrendous. The government is voting to break international law. They are awarding massive contracts to their friends and cronies. And on top of that, they have shown themselves incapable of delivering Brexit. Labour should be all over them. Instead, Labour are supporting them on Covid eg return to schools, etc; being wishy-washy on women's rights and identity politics. Labour are doing a good impression of standing for nothing and falling for everything.

I think that’s quite unfair. Going full throttle opposition during a global pandemic would be a pretty stupid thing to do. Far better to keep your powder dry until the dust’s settled and we’re in the worst economic crisis since the 1930s and then really put the boot in. Particularly if EU countries do much better economically than the UK. It’s called giving them enough rope to hang themselves.

It’s called giving them enough rope to hang themselves
It's called prioritising a vague shot at power over people's lives. The numbers of dead and long Covid sufferers; the DCs whose education is currently being disrupted daily; the people who will suffer most in the economic downturn- I'm sure they are all ecstatic that Labour views them as expedient casualties in their half-arsed attempt to wrest power. The Tories aren't hanging hanging themselves. As always, they're hanging the poor, the elderly, the vulnerable.

Did Labour even bother to find out why it lost Scotland.? The arrogance of assuming that the Electorate will always vote for you no matter what has really been Labour’s undoing.

It will depend on how long people’s memories are by the time there’s a GE. Any whiff of, for example, inheritance tax being increased and people might still vote Tory.

Historically the country has always been more Conservative than Labour and Blair was more Tory-Lite than he was Corbynesque. It remains to be seen whether people will continue to swing more to the right as they get older as society and the global environment shift

@MeridaTheBold

It’s called giving them enough rope to hang themselves It's called prioritising a vague shot at power over people's lives. The numbers of dead and long Covid sufferers; the DCs whose education is currently being disrupted daily; the people who will suffer most in the economic downturn- I'm sure they are all ecstatic that Labour views them as expedient casualties in their half-arsed attempt to wrest power. The Tories aren't hanging hanging themselves. As always, they're hanging the poor, the elderly, the vulnerable.

Perhaps you can explain what a party in opposition against a government with a majority of 80 can actually do? The answer is nothing. Keir Starmer could shout his head off at the despatch box until he lost his voice and bombard the mainstream media and it would achieve the square root of fuck all. Not a single life would be saved. It isn’t the Labour Party that views people as expedient casualties.

Vinyl, I agree. I suppose what they can do is skewer the PM like Miliband did and help the MPs behind lose confidence. When the next rank is Patel, Raab, Gove, Rees-Mogg... whether than will benefit the country is another question.

@FreidaMind

Did Labour even bother to find out why it lost Scotland.? The arrogance of assuming that the Electorate will always vote for you no matter what has really been Labour’s undoing.

Parachuting London-Elite candidates into Northern constituencies didn't help either. In our area, we had an excellent long standing local Labour city councillor who would have easily won our marginal seat in the last GE, but her nomination by the local party was overturned by Central office who sent up someone who hadn't a clue about local matters and hence didn't win the seat. That's the third time in a row it's happened with the same result. Prior to that, we had a local Labour MP who won 3 times in a row. The facts are plain to see - local candidate, 3 wins in a row, series of London candidates, 3 losses in a row, yet London Central office can't see what's staring at them!

@Zilla1

Vinyl, I agree. I suppose what they can do is skewer the PM like Miliband did and help the MPs behind lose confidence. When the next rank is Patel, Raab, Gove, Rees-Mogg... whether than will benefit the country is another question.

But who does Labour have who are better? Both major parties are best of a bad lot at the moment. Not really much to choose between them.

Your argument seems to be that opposition is a waste of time- which is definitely how Labour is acting.
But let's see what could Keir do/could he have done? Champion experts providing peer-reviewed research that contradicts the government's willy-nilly approach to Covid atm; draw on the WTO and experiences in Europe to suggest a more robust approach to reopening schools. Support Scottish independence/referendum - may seem extreme but it's a strategic position that could put Labour back into play in Scotland. Defend single sex spaces and support women.
The whole point of opposition is to suggest alternative positions, to put pressure on the government by showing other responses are possible. Labour seem to have forgotten that. They act as though their purpose is to show they're not that different from the Tories after all. It's going to keep them in opposition and that is a tragedy for the country - not just their party.

*Champion experts providing peer-reviewed research that contradicts the government's willy-nilly approach to Covid atm; draw on the WTO and experiences in Europe to suggest a more robust approach to reopening schools. Support Scottish independence/referendum - may seem extreme but it's a strategic position that could put Labour back into play in Scotland. Defend single sex spaces and support women.

Where are they going to find those experts and who would believe them?
Parents are wary of schools returning, teaching unions even more so.
Scotland’s a lost cause for both main parties
Women’s right have fallen to the bottom of the agenda in the midst of a pandemic.

And even if the Labour Party did all those things now, what difference do you genuinely think it would make? Apart from garnering accusations of fiddling while Rome burns.

@FreidaMind
I campaign for SNP and was a polling agent at GE, our branch covered 6 polling stations and we were the only party present.
Labour have 1 MP here and the 6 Tories sit in predictable areas yet these parties continue to delude themselves that they can represent a country that doesn’t want them.
When a yoon tried to argue about the union they can aren’t offer any positives if any.
Labour would do better if they supported independence and could be the 2nd party, it’s very sad that they were hugely popular and now non existent.

BovaryX

If the 'basket of deplorables' reject Biden in November, the Twitter outrage will be audible on Mars.

Sadly I think it will be worse than Twitter outrage. I think the civil unrest in the US at the moment is just a sample of what's to come if Trump wins. Whichever way the election goes it's almost certain to be contested and it's possible the situation might erupt into civil war.

They'd gain support from women and Scotland. Both areas where Labour's support has plummeted.
If they did manage to appeal to traditional Scottish Labour voters, their voting patterns are similar to the old Labour heartlands so they could start to make inroads into the areas they lost.
Labour isn't going to win by pretending to be Tory-lite. Blair could do that because he had the traditional Labour heartlands to build upon. Current Labour has to focus on winning them back.
As for experts, there are numerous experts available, some of whom have consistently been offering advice since the first outbreak in Wuhan.
None of it would be easy but the internal divisions in the SNP mean a savvy, decentralised Labour party that supported independence, opposed self-id and protected single sex spaces could start to garner support.
As a nationwide strategy, they could also have supported a green, decentralised approach to business and WFH rather than focusing on pushing people to return to work.
There are so many innovative approaches being suggested by think tanks, being trialled in communities, being implemented in other countries. There are no shortage of ideas, research and resources. Labour seems achingly out of touch.