To think that the Scottish government should not have caved over exam results?

[Notthemessiah]

So the Scottish government have caved in and have given their students the grades that their teachers have said they should get, despite the fact that overall they are massively inflated compared to previous years actual real results.

AIBU to think that this will massively penalise those pupils at schools where teachers were actually honest and realistic about their students likely results and instead benefit those who chose fantasy figures either through actual deceit, sheer wishful thinking or believing that the grades would be downgraded by some kind of system anyway.

Everyone was bleating about how it was unfair that pupils going to worse-performing schools got their results downgraded, but the stats don't lie - theirs were much more inflated compared to previous years that those from better-performing schools and it's ridiculous to think that all of them were suddenly going to improve this year.

It was always going to be an unfair system whatever happened but this just turns this year's results into a total joke - how universities, employers etc are expected to interpret them and compare them to other years is anyone's guess.

I hope that this doesn't happen in England and Wales too but it's hard to see how it can't - otherwise it puts Scottish students at a big advantage over their English and Welsh compatriots.

@mrsBtheparker

The problem now is that those who get into university with these results will expect the next three or four years to be dumbed down for them. If they can't cope Covid will be a handy excuse for life.

You're judging them now and for the rest of their lives!

DO you have a child that’s been downgraded in their exams this year, we could have accepted a downgrade on one subject but to have 80% of my childs grades being down graded is unacceptable, she isn’t just being handed these grades she works her ass off throughout the year achieving all A’s in 4 of the subjects and a B in the 5th one so why has she’s not been given these grades in the first instance? She doesn’t even want to go to uni so doesn’t expect anything to be dumbed down, she expects to work hard for everything she achieves. So yes we are angry and angry at the attitudes that some think these children are just being handed these grades rather than them being based on the level they are working at.

Reading the stats show that children in Deprived area are twice as likely to have had their grades downgraded due to previous school years results. I feel that’s not targeted then I don’t know what is, downgrading in affluent and deprived areas should be similar.

The problem now is that those who get into university with these results will expect the next three or four years to be dumbed down for them. If they can't cope Covid will be a handy excuse for life

You don’t have much faith in young people, do you?

That's actually a horrible thing to say. I think this year's cohort , and next year's have had to show remarkable adaptability, patience, and resilience.

If there are 100 students who are all predicted a C
If they sat the exam, most would get a C, some would mess up and get a D or E and some would excel and get a B.

Without sitting the exam there is no way of knowing, which of those students would get a higher or lower mark, so they have to be given the C as predicted. They have to be given the benefit of the doubt because there is no fair way to determine who wouldn't get the C.

The problem now is that those who get into university with these results will expect the next three or four years to be dumbed down for them. If they can't cope Covid will be a handy excuse for life

That's actually a horrible thing to say. I think this year's cohort , and next year's have had to show remarkable adaptability, patience, and resilience

I agree completely

@mrsBtheparker

The problem now is that those who get into university with these results will expect the next three or four years to be dumbed down for them. If they can't cope Covid will be a handy excuse for life.

The kids haven't expected anything other than the adults to deal with the Covid situation appropritely and fairly.

It's not the kids that have fucked up the handling of this situation. It's the so called grown ups.

The kids haven't expected anything other than the adults to deal with the Covid situation appropritely and fairly

And this

We've had ages to get this right...

@2pinkginsplease

Then you aren't very good at interpreting them are you? All the stats show is that grades were more likely to be inflated in schools from more deprived areas then from others.

Sorry - that was rude, especially when you are directly affected by this situation and I am not. It's been a long hot day, though that is no excuse.

What I should have said was that I think you seeing an intent from those stats that simply isn't there. The algorithm they used and the people who created it had no agenda to penalise any particular group of students.

Hopefully we can both agree that both the system they originally used and now the decision to use no system at all are deeply flawed - the only difference really being that each is unfair to a different subset of students.

downgrading in affluent and deprived areas should be similar

It could never be similar even from school to school, let alone from area to area unless you can believe that all teachers in Scotland were able to treat the grading process EXACTLY the same way.

Seriously, I see I'm not the only one who has pointed this out, but I'm afraid you really are seeing bias where none exists.

Damned if they do and damned if they don’t

@Notthemessiah I don’t think it was intentional at all: but the outcome was that kids in deprived areas were much more likely to be downgraded. And it feels like a right kick in the teeth.

But, no matter what, there was never going to be a perfect system for grading this year: so on balance I think the Scottish Government were right to go back to the schools estimated results

I do think what is particularly interesting is that in amongst the talk about grade inflation and pupils being downgraded and so on there was a not insignificant number of pupils who were awarded a grade higher than their teachers estimate - again based on the same algorithm - and these 'upgrades' were much more likely to happen to pupils in affluent areas.

While I can certainly see that some teachers might well have erred on the side of optimism "they got 48% in the prelim and the following 3 essays in class were solid grade C so I will put them at a C for estimated grade" I cannot see any circumstance where a teacher would estimate a lower grade than a child deserved/demonstrated they were capable of (or their school allowing them to do so). So what made this algorithm decide to upgrade some pupils, to grades that the teachers had absolutely no evidence to support.

I think that of all the Scottish Governments decisions that one was the poorest - to give all pupils their estimate grades unless they had been upgraded by the SQA, in which case they kept the higher grade, therefore 'inflating' the results even more.

I do understand why they did that, to give a grade (and start the university process rolling) they really cannot downgrade again when by that point things like accommodation had been sorted and potentially paid for - it just seems crazy that with all the talk of 'overgenerous teachers' there were this group of pupils that with no supporting evidence at all were awarded a better grade than the teacher estimate.

Oh I can yet!

My top grades were capped by my data team according to how they felt results might go . And I think the grades are correct. There is no prior data, however, for the subject and the cohort is statistically rather small. The students' prior data suggests they are academically quite strong and, statistcially nationally , predicted to get high results. It is possible , just possible , that a B could go up to an A a C to a B, and the school were just a bit cautious.

In England, too, there were already plans in the pipeline to 'uplift' results in German and French because of historical issues. Ofqual said to teachers to just predict as normal and they would deal with the uplift . So that particular issue should see some students go up.

This is just England, but the same logic applies . MFL tend to have small groups, as do a group of other subjects, mainly taught in selective schools : so this sort of thing could see that effect ripple out.

A least the Scottish government had the grace to stand up and apologise in parliament. In England no podium and Ofqual left to talk.