To think that the Scottish government should not have caved over exam results?

[Notthemessiah]

So the Scottish government have caved in and have given their students the grades that their teachers have said they should get, despite the fact that overall they are massively inflated compared to previous years actual real results.

AIBU to think that this will massively penalise those pupils at schools where teachers were actually honest and realistic about their students likely results and instead benefit those who chose fantasy figures either through actual deceit, sheer wishful thinking or believing that the grades would be downgraded by some kind of system anyway.

Everyone was bleating about how it was unfair that pupils going to worse-performing schools got their results downgraded, but the stats don't lie - theirs were much more inflated compared to previous years that those from better-performing schools and it's ridiculous to think that all of them were suddenly going to improve this year.

It was always going to be an unfair system whatever happened but this just turns this year's results into a total joke - how universities, employers etc are expected to interpret them and compare them to other years is anyone's guess.

I hope that this doesn't happen in England and Wales too but it's hard to see how it can't - otherwise it puts Scottish students at a big advantage over their English and Welsh compatriots.

Or he might have worked very hard and got himself some well deserved As only to find that half the year group had as well and he could no longer distinguish himself from less able students.

Definitely a hold my beer from England too -

@noblegiraffe

But no one can explain why it was the disadvantaged schools that had drastically better cohorts this year compared to last.

Some of them will have, but it should have averaged out a bit better.

I think the numbers were a bit high, but surely it is always going to be the case that on a good year the disadvantaged schools will appear to make bigger steps?

If 90% of your pupils already get top grades then only 10% can improve; if that 10% mostly get B’a (or equivalent of) then they can only improve so far. Whereas if only 60/70% of your pupils get top grades, and they have a mix of grades, then the number of pupils moving up a grade or two could be much larger.

The year group after me were a statistical anomaly and had a much bigger than average increase. It was just a perfect storm of bright year group and teachers getting it bang on for that exam set up.

Then why did this extraordinarily bight year who did so well in their Highers do no better than average in their Nat5s?

@noblegiraffe That one is fairly easy - if it's a school in a leafy suburb that typically has a very high pass rate it is fairly hard to add on a further 10% (or whatever) to that. 28 Grade A's or 30 Grade A's doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

In a deprived school when maybe last year only 3 pupils achieved grade A, if there were 4 or 5 this year it looks like a huge increase, even though in any given year a 2 pupil fluctuation can easily happen, it still is almost double the grade As of the year before.

Worse than that, when they decided that they only wanted x% to achieve Grade A they would drop those pupils in the deprived area before the pupils in the leafy area.

Their algorithm was a truly blunt instrument, we even had pupils get their predicted fail downgraded to a lower band fail! Which makes no sense or difference to anything, it wasn't even a near miss. No one is ever going to care whether their fail was a band 8 or a 9.

And yes all Scottish schools were told they could have their estimate grades verified at a later date, before we submitted them - it would be a brave school that wholesale inflated grades.

Scottish teachers have had years of their marking being verified by the exam board via coursework that used to be marked in schools and then schools were randomly chosen to send it off to be verified later. It certainly wasn't the case that huge amounts of grade inflation was going on there and it's only in the last few years that the exam board have marked all the coursework (and it still produces higher grades than their written exams which have repeatedly made the headlines for being too hard, full of mistakes and just downright wrong on occasion) example

Scottish teachers have had years of their marking being verified by the exam board via coursework that used to be marked in schools and then schools were randomly chosen to send it off to be verified later.

Makes you wonder why they bother with exams at all

@Therewillbetroubleahead Because they didn't judge this years Higher on last years N5, they judged it on last years Higher.

I have been watching the outcome regarding the scottish exam results & feel that the students in disadvantaged areas deserve the predicted grades their teachers gave them... these are the students who would have benefited of being in school, access to computers, teachers etc. Being in lockdown has been so tough for them, these students do not always have access to computers, online classes.... even the basic stuff of time or places to study. Give them a chance, they deserve it!!
Here in Ireland we too are awaiting predicted grades for the first time. My son is in a standard school, not a deprived area but he has had grinds in subjects that he needs high marks in, we do 8 subjects at leaving/a levels. This is common in ireland & costs a fortune for parents but to get the points for university many need to unless they go to private school. Grinds stopped in lockdown, many parts of ireland have poor internet access so those students who had teachers who were doing online classes could not avail of them, students who only had one computer per family may have needed to share it with parents working from home or siblings, why should they have their grades predicted lower because of their circumstances!! Teachers know their students best, go with that.

[quote yetmorecomplaining]@Therewillbetroubleahead Because they didn't judge this years Higher on last years N5, they judged it on last years Higher.[/quote]
You missed the point. Lyralalala stated that this year was an anomaly, a very bright year. If that were the case and the teachers were correct in their marking then why was this not reflected in last years Nat 5 results? Why had there not been a correspondingly large increase in passes at Nat 5 last year?

@Therewillbetroubleahead When the exam board can produce an exam that later needed the passmark lowered to 34% as it was so badly done, then yes you do wonder sometimes why they bother at all...

@Therewillbetroubleahead In part that could be because some schools are not actually doing so many N5's any more. Some schools have moved at least partially to NPA awards at level 5 and level 6 in S4, some schools offer a 2 year Higher starting in S4.

The point is though, that while for sure some teachers were perhaps too optimistic in estimate grades (i'm really not disputing that), wholesale downgrading in the way the SQA did it was unjust for the pupils - it was done with no regard for individual pupils at all.

So yes the grades were in some cases higher than they should have been, but as there are many reasons why this could be - the downgrading based on some blunt algorithm totally flies in the face of individual pupil work effort and ability. They left it too late to use the appeal system properly and they didn't make use of some of the information they could have to place a clearer judgement on the estimates.

Don't forget that estimate grades were done by staff sitting at home with little to no access to school or pupil work other than their grade books, following unclear guidance that changed several times but made a huge deal that no pupil attainment should be penalised due to the current circumstances.

typically has a very high pass rate it is fairly hard to add on a further 10%

Tbf adding on a further 10% is exactly what the least disadvantaged schools did. But it’s not about not being able to push any As higher, it’s the D/C grades that were counted in the table.

It’s plausible that the more disadvantaged schools have a higher proportion of C/D borderline kids than the most advantaged schools. If we assume a bell curve distribution of ability within each school, we know that the disadvantaged school has a lower pass rate so the bell curve is translated down the x axis from the advantaged school, peaking at a lower grade.

If both schools do exactly the same and bump every C/D borderline kid on their roll to a pass grade, then the pass rate for the disadvantaged school will increase by more than for the advantaged school, just because it affects more students.

You missed the point. Lyralalala stated that this year was an anomaly, a very bright year. If that were the case and the teachers were correct in their marking then why was this not reflected in last years Nat 5 results? Why had there not been a correspondingly large increase in passes at Nat 5 last year?

I didn't state they were. I suggested that if they are an anomoly year the reason for a bigger progress step in disadvantaged schools could be that pupils have more places to go.

If you only have 1 or 2 pupils who don't get A's in a class of 30 then even if they get them your increased % is much lower than a school who manage to increase from 5 pupils out of 30 to 10 pupils out or 30.

All of the % estimates were considerably higher than last year so it needs to be looked into - was that just because it was teachers or is that because the cohort overall is a bright year or has something changed in the courses this past year or two that is benefitting this group?

When I was in school it was common at times for older students to travel to other schools to do certain subjects if your school didn’t offer it. I’m not sure if it still happens but I’m wondering how the algorithm would have handled this.

@noblegiraffe

They will be funded just like everyone else

By the Scottish government then. Hope they’ve put some extra cash aside.

I'm sure it's preferable for them to pay for more scottish students to receive university education than face having to sub universities who might otherwise struggle in the absence of lots of international students - at least they get something for their money.

No @Piggywaspushed hardly any private schools in Glasgow (at secondary anyway) by comparison, Edinburgh has the most. It's a bit of an anomaly. A lot of wealth in certain quarters I suppose (not my bit sadly!)

I just thought maybe Bearsden! I may ,or may not, have gone to a private school in Glasgow

My other guess would have ben Edinburgh!

Oops, sorry! I have never lived there but had always heard our focus on private schools was an east coast thing.
I will picture your accent differently now

England has just said ‘hold my beer’

Shouldn't it be Irn Bru?

Omg piggy that is an even more startling revelation than when you said that you were short!

Becky Allen confirms Scotland’s statistical process was less robust than England’s because the Scots don’t have KS2 SATs data (Or GCSE data?).

So England could have held the line on that basis...

The Scottish government had to do something, why should children in deprived areas be marked down in 15.2% of cases whereas children from more affluent areas only be marked down in 6.9% of cases.

How did the sQA manage to award 75% of children the grade they were predicted and why were the other 25% downgraded?

My child was working at mainly A grades with one B grade throughout the year but when exam results came in only achieved one A some B and a C? How can she be downgraded on 4 results while others have all gained the results they were predicted or in some cases higher.

How can a child receive higher than they are predicted? How can teachers predict a C for some pupils but they come out with a B due to the area they live or the school they attend? Total bias.

I’m glad they are now being awarded the grades they deserve. My dd is very level headed and conscientious, hard working and does work hard through her school time, when she opened her results last year she accepted her results as they were the same as her predicted grade bar one however this year she was totally demoralised, lost confidence and asked how the sqa had got her grades so wrong!

I spoke to my daughters head teacher on the day of the results and she said her staff worked as a team to assess the grades, these were overseen by the head of department and again by the SMT. She said she didn’t want any comeback of the SQA saying they had marked generously. I believe her, she’s very straight talking woman and is brutally honest.

or is that because the cohort overall is a bright year

But obviously they aren’t as there was no significant increase in Nat 5 results last year.

To add insult to injury the day of the results was a miserable, torrential rainy day and dd’s certificate arrived ina soggy crumpled envelope soaking wet, here’s hoping when the new certificates arrive it’s a lovely dry day!