Just jumping in here, hope that is ok. I haven't been on the other threads because I mostly post US political stuff elsewhere - I am a Yank living here (longstanding.)
I need somewhere to go that is not US based for the countdown to 3 November, though. One thing that was really striking about election day in 2016 was that the mainstream US media was really off the pace with how things were going for Hillary on the day. Lots of aggressive optimism when the British media watching from the US were already becoming muted (this was around 8pm.) I knew it wasn't going to go well for her but was told I was completely wrong, and even paranoid.
I have been thinking about whether I can be more optimistic this time. I had a whole narrative around this whereby I actually analysed the Electoral College numbers and took it as read that Trump wouldn't flip a Blue State. I am concerned however that Minnesota is looking closer than it should - plus NH and ME are interesting. Thankfully - there isn't a third party candidate with momentum to take votes away. Apparently this did swing things in PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan. If I can find the article again I'll post it here. It was illuminating but made me optimistic that Biden would be spared that.
I think more Democrats will be motivated to ensure they vote; but voter suppression??? Nowt to be sneezed at.
Silent Trump supporters? Maybe. I am not even sure it's BLM as much as other forms of the so-called 'Culture War' that have pissed people off, such as 'cancel culture.' I also think it is a mistake for Biden to say he wouldn't hesitate to shut down the whole country again because of COVID. Even people who are scared of the disease and think Trump has done a terrible job might find that quite terrifying and either not vote or quietly cast for Trump.
One thing that I have to face up to, which I am sure has already been discussed here at length, is the potential for Biden to win an even larger share of the popular vote than Hillary did and still lose the election. There is a lot of talk of Trump 'not going' or litigating or stoking up doubt in the legitimacy of the outcome - there is certainly risk of this (and I would never, never underestimate it as he has surprised on the downside throughout his tenure). I am absolutely terrified of an election outcome which is perceived as ambiguous or unfair. I think there will be violence in the US following this sort of outcome and that it could from the right as well as the left. I think the frustration at having another four years of Trump, of feeling so let down it could happen again, will be too much for people.
As a very long-term American abroad, I think people will just give up on the US if he wins again.
Gorka's bonkers, just getting that out of the way. But he's hardly worth anyone's breath.