To wonder why people can't evaluate risk?

[2155User]

Seeing so many posts of people asking opinions on whether they should go on holiday/go away and a huge proportion of responses are "it's too risky" "don't go something might happen" etc

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

So AIBU in thinking people have totally lost the ability the evaluate the risk out there?

Obviously it'll differ if you have medical conditions that make you at higher risk of catching the virus, and quite clearly a holiday is a 'choice'/luxury but still, people just seem scared

@Alsohuman

Given that this thread is about evaluating the risk for travel, you need to look further than your own borders.

bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

The virus is increasing in 'most of the world' according to the WHO.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105

Hopefully youll be able to click this one

@Aragog

We sat for under 2 hours in Eurostar wearing a mask. It was no issue at all. To wear one for the odd 15 minute taxi ride is not an issue either.

I don't like buffet meals at hotels anyway / you never all get to sit down and eat at the same time without someone up and down throughout. . I'm much preferring having table service order for my breakfast at the hotels we are at. Much more pleasant.

No mask when walking about outdoors and no mask when sat at your table, even indoors, at a restaurant and bar. You just pop it on if you need to nip to the toilet, etc. Same as in hotels - you just pop it on for going through the foyer.

There seems to be very little fuss being made about mask wearing indoors at all here in France.

Even in 30+ degree heat wearing a mask every so often isn't that big a deal, and it's not like it's all the time.

On other threads, posters have been reporting that masks are mandatory everywhere, including on the beach and around the pool in parts of Spain. You can't blame people for thinking they'd rather not go this year if restrictions like that might be in place.

In Europe at present the numbers aren't really rising particularly.

Some are having outbreaks but they are usually fairly localised at present.

That's not to say they won't rise again in the future.

I can't speak for Spain and can only speak about where we've been in France.

We've been in Paris and currently Reims. We move to Strasbourg tomorrow. Dd was in Pau before.

When we first arrived it was up to individual shops for the mask rule. As of yesterday it's compulsory. But not outdoors and, from what we've read and heard on local news, not on beaches in France.

They’re not rising, they’re falling. Along with the death rate which, it now turns out, is inflated and includes many deaths from other causes because PHE has counted everyone who’s had Covid in the last six months, despite many of them having recovered.

I'd love to see a full independent study on this.

Yes, it's ridiculous if someone had Covid in March, fully recovered and then got run over in July being counted as a Covid death (is there proof that this ever happened?). However, someone contracting Covid in march and remaining in ITU throughout and now dying should be counted. Someone having contracted it, seeming to have recovered and then dying of what turns out to be a previously undiagnosed, potential complication eg heart attack, blood clot, kidney failure then that too should be counted. In fact anyone that has had Covid should be followed up long term so that we can fully understand the potential medium and long term effects. Many reports of long tail Covid and not much recognition of this from government. Also, renewed suspicion that this might cause male infertility. This all warrants much closer scrutiny.

There are hazards and there are risks. People often mistake the 2. Water is a hazard, but the risk of drowning depends on whether your tak8ing a glass or a lake. The hazard from covid is high, the risk of catching it is low, particularly if your careful.

Tbh I don't think people are really concerned if it's safe, they're really asking 'would you judge me if I did this?'

In my view optimism does has a place. If you have a 1% chance of dying from something, you can either view it as that, or you can view it as a 99% chance of living, and i most certainly do the latter

If we are still talking about risk management, and evaluating risks then 1% [dying] is exactly the same as 99% [surviving]

Are we still talking about evaluating risk, probability * impact ?

One of my friends is totally paranoid about covid19. A couple of weeks ago she drove past her son jogging down a country road. The heavens had well and truly opened -it was chucking it down . But she wouldn’t stop and pick him up in case she caught the bloody virus from him. He was and is fit and well. Never mind the risk of him jogging in very poor visibility and getting hit by a car . To my mind a far greater risk than catching the virus -but she pulled up , told him she’d love to give him a lift but couldn’t take the risk and left him to get in with it . Crazy

If we are still talking about risk management, and evaluating risks then 1% [dying] is exactly the same as 99% [surviving]

Well obviously. But I think the poster was referring to the two different ways of looking at any risk.

The negative way of looking at it is concentrating on the 1% dying, or whatever the negative outcome of the statistic is. More positive people would focus on the fact that 99% of people don't die.

The government have concentrated on the negative throughout this pandemic, especially in Nicola Sturgeon's briefings. Daily counts of who's died, last time I saw her speak she talked about prevalence rates of 30 people per 100,000 having Covid and you think how awful 30 people. But on the flip side, that means 99,970 people in every 100,000 don't have it.

But they want to scare us, make us comply with their restrictions, so they present the figures in the way which fits their narrative.

Someone having contracted it, seeming to have recovered and then dying of what turns out to be a previously undiagnosed, potential complication eg heart attack, blood clot, kidney failure then that too should be counted

Why? It completely skews the figures. They didn’t die of Covid. If you apply this logic, anyone who ever contracted it will have it as cause of death long after the virus has died out. Which is nonsensical.

Well done Op for keeping the thread more or less on track it has made interesting reading and I'm also looking at getting the book mentioned. And engaging with those also discussing risk assessment and explaining their own rationale.

For what it's worth, my assessment is similar to yours and whilst accepting that others have different views, I am going to Turkey in September.

Incidentally I remember reading that a pessimist view of life is more realistic but despite this, on average, optimists live 9% longer.

You are always going to have 2 sides of the argument. Even if there were no deaths in the UK for the next month, people here will still say what about the long term health issues, the government are lying to us. I’m glad i’m on the other side of the argument, enjoying my life and booking a holiday abroad in August, i’m not bothered what people think. Life’s to short to worry about dying all the time. Life is for living and enjoying every moment you can.

@Alsohuman

Someone having contracted it, seeming to have recovered and then dying of what turns out to be a previously undiagnosed, potential complication eg heart attack, blood clot, kidney failure then that too should be counted

Why? It completely skews the figures. They didn’t die of Covid. If you apply this logic, anyone who ever contracted it will have it as cause of death long after the virus has died out. Which is nonsensical.

How have they not died of Covid?

So a previously fit, healthy person contracted Covid back in March where you had to be practically at death's door in order to be hospitalised. Has a rough time with it, gradually recovers but remains breathless and tired. No one taking it seriously (because no one seems to be taking ling tail Covid seriously). Condition deteriorates and they are hospitalised where heart failure is diagnosed due to damage caused by Covid. They then die. How have they not died of Covid? Had they not caught it they wouldn't have developed heart failure which resulted in them dying.

Not recording them in the statistics artificially skews the severity of it.

A person doesn't have to die within 30 days of an assault for it to be considered murder.

You seem to want to ignore that Covid could cause severe long term complications - why? It's a new disease. We need to study it fully to completely understand it.

Even if there were no deaths in the UK for the next month, people here will still say what about the long term health issues, the government are lying to us.

I'm certainly not saying that. I'm saying we are only seven months into this disease even existing. No one knows what the long term effects could be. That's why it should be subject to.independent, robust scientific and clinical study so that the true severity can be determined. Maybe it will turn out to be nowhere near as serious as originally thought. Maybe it will turn out to have far reaching consequences (make fertility or life long heart/lung complications for example). How can it be wrong to fully evaluate this?

Nobody knows whether or not that hypothetical person would have died of heart failure anyway.

Not recording them in the statistics artificially skews the severity of it

Recording them in the statistics artificially skews the severity too. The fact is that the cause of death is heart failure. You really do seem to be utterly determined to make this as bad as it can possibly be. You can always be relied upon to see the worst in any situation.

@Alsohuman

Nobody knows whether or not that hypothetical person would have died of heart failure anyway.

Not recording them in the statistics artificially skews the severity of it

Recording them in the statistics artificially skews the severity too. The fact is that the cause of death is heart failure. You really do seem to be utterly determined to make this as bad as it can possibly be. You can always be relied upon to see the worst in any situation.

That's utterly ridiculous.

So, a new drug is developed. Patients start to die a couple of months after taking it but your answer to that is "well, they might have died anyway so let's ignore it because you all seem to determined to put a downer on this new drug"?

I really hope you aren't involved in medicine or science in someway.

You think patients in their fifties currently in comas having contracted Covid would have ended up in vegetative states anyway? That their condition today, four months after being ventilated due to Covid is not attributable to Covid? So we therefore shouldn't consider that a complication of Covid? Ridiculous.

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras you have already said on another thread you get no joy from your life, non at all. I think I would prefer to take a small risk and enjoy life than to scared to go out my front door and live a little. To sit at home and worry about Covid all day long is not healthy.

@Alsohuman but they have been recording the deaths as Covid even if that wasn’t what killed them? There is no distinction between dying as a direct result of it or just dying with it the system and I think it is a very important difference IMO

I guess part of the problem is that the risk is actually hugely dependent on individual circumstances, in some cases it's very high indeed, and it's not possible to get real quantification of individual risk

@Alex50 100% agree with you, you get one shot at life and we have already nearly lost 6 months of this year we will never get back. I abided by it all at the start of lockdown, saw no one apart from going to work, even went through a phase of being convinced I’d get it and die (community nursing, early 30s, healthy) and then checked myself as I slowly realised the government wanted people to think that as not long after it all came out to be primarily BAME healthcare workers who were dying which is awful I’m not saying it isn’t but why all the cloak and dagger? I will wear my mask when in shops etc but I am now going to my hair appointment, visiting people, shopping and eating out.

[quote Alex50]@Hearhoovesthinkzebras you have already said on another thread you get no joy from your life, non at all. I think I would prefer to take a small risk and enjoy life than to scared to go out my front door and live a little. To sit at home and worry about Covid all day long is not healthy.[/quote]
There's a big difference between sitting at home worrying about Covid and choosing not to go on holiday this year because you don't fancy facing the potential disruption that it could, and indeed is, causing in many places.

Opting to not go abroad this year doesn't mean people are poor at assessing risks, as op states. It means that for them, the potential pitfalls aren't worth risking. Who says they can't enjoy life just because they aren't having 2 weeks on the Costa del Sol this year?

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras I’m not disputing the fact that we don’t know enough about it all to know whether or not their are long term complications but until there is research into it I’m not staying inside and not enjoying my life

*there are that should be