To wonder why people can't evaluate risk?

[2155User]

Seeing so many posts of people asking opinions on whether they should go on holiday/go away and a huge proportion of responses are "it's too risky" "don't go something might happen" etc

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

So AIBU in thinking people have totally lost the ability the evaluate the risk out there?

Obviously it'll differ if you have medical conditions that make you at higher risk of catching the virus, and quite clearly a holiday is a 'choice'/luxury but still, people just seem scared

This might be a clue as to why you can't evaluate risk op.

My mother was killed by a speeding driver and my uncle and brother in law died in separate road accidents. My friend's parents were killed in a head on collision with another car, and another friend's mum died in a car accident. I think about risk a lot!

I live in a busy city yet I know of fewer than 10 people who've had Covid, all of whom are fully recovered. I don't know of anyone who has died. There have been fewer than 10 new cases diagnosed in the last 4 weeks in my area and no-one has died. My neighbour who works at the local hospital says there have been no new Covid admissions for weeks.

I'm going on holiday tomorrow. I believe that currently the risk is lower than it has been for months. I also work in the travel industry and it's being decimated. I want travel still to be possible for all in years to come, not just the rich.

Do I think there is a risk in going on holiday? Yes, but I think it's low at this point. I think it's possible we will have another wave in the autumn and this is the time to live life as normally as possible.

But I have a young toddler, as do lots of my friends, and there are some who still won't leave the house through fear and are losing their mind so to speak but still don't want to go outside, and ones who are the total opposite and yet seem and appear so much happier.

Are you sure of that? I'm very vulnerable so very careful with social distancing et cetera and my oldest friend called me last week that she was very concerned because I apparantly shut myself up in the house . I refuse to meet up with people because of Covid but I'm not at home all day. I go walking and cycling lots, but only on working days and in quiet areas (which is easy where I live). She thought that because I refuse to meet people and don't go out on weekends, it meant I also do nothing, but that's not the case. There are 5 days a week where I'll happily be outside all day walking along a local beach or in the forest or cycling many miles and looking at cows and sheep.

[quote 2155User]**@labyrinthloafer* @WiseUpJanetWeiss*

Won't even bother giving either of you the time of day. [/quote]
Fair enough, but in post after post you have demonstrated your own lack of risk assessment skill, and had this pointed out to you by posters who clearly assess risk for a living, yet you insist that others’ judgment is poor.

Several other posters have described rational assessment of their own risks, balanced against the benefits, and coming to a variety of conclusions, without needing to dismiss others as having poor judgment. Perhaps have a look at some of those as examples.

You are using your “risk assessment” to justify the decision you have already made. You’re perfectly entitled to do so: it’s your life. But that is not a valid risk assessment.

I think it is very hard to evaluate risk given the dodgy stats we are being given by the govt; if nothing else their bungling has made me far more nervous about going on holiday or into town than personal experience. I've realised we cannot trust them to lockdown on time, test, give hospitals PPE, give funding to LA's for TTI, follow their own guidelines or enact effective policy to stop the spread and resurgence (opening pubs at 6am!).If we lived in Germany, or a country with actual control over the virus and an effective public health not tied to the govt I would feel very differently.

I can’t get my head around how we still keep having cases but hardly mentioning any deaths now?

@JeSuisPoulet

I think it is very hard to evaluate risk given the dodgy stats we are being given by the govt; if nothing else their bungling has made me far more nervous about going on holiday or into town than personal experience. I've realised we cannot trust them to lockdown on time, test, give hospitals PPE, give funding to LA's for TTI, follow their own guidelines or enact effective policy to stop the spread and resurgence (opening pubs at 6am!).If we lived in Germany, or a country with actual control over the virus and an effective public health not tied to the govt I would feel very differently.

I think given the PM couldn't risk assess shaking hands with people in a hospital despite having face to face meetings with national health advisors, it is hard to base our risk assessments on his!

And I absolutely loathe how the government has made people think the way they do, there are still people who think if they even look at someone they will die or kill a granny, way over the top and I will welcome when the response to this is looked into in a few years

@AlaskaThunderfuckHiiiiiiiii

I can’t get my head around how we still keep having cases but hardly mentioning any deaths now?

Apparently because it is working age people catching it now? Older people at home, young people off school.

Don't mention long term effects in 'mild' cases of course, we're avoiding discussing that!

Oh and at The start I thought it was about flattening the curve and making sure nhs had capacity? I am on the ground nhs and we have always had capacity in my area, Infact we are way beyond flattening the curve now but it seems to have shifts or elimination now or is that just me?

@labyrinthloafer exactly!

Not to mention the long term effects which aren't being monitored particularly well, but can be life-changing.

I am not going abroad because zi have risk/assessed that it is a too-tiny-to-compute risk of catching 'the disease' but a high risk of having a miserable time due to all the make wearing and social distancing pointless talisman to ward off the danger nonsense.

@JeSuisPoulet but it’s exactly that we don’t have enough information on whether it causes long term effects or if that only happens in certain groups

@MynephewR this made me chuckle mainly because I had categorised people into those 3 things as well but the last group I called drama llamas who have been waiting a long time just for something like this to come along and justify them

I think it depends on how you look at it. You can look at it on a purely personal 'I'll be fine if I get it' or you could look at it in a broader way and the impact on others. Would I travel abroad at the moment? No, because holidays aren't necessary and not having one this year isn't the end of the world.

The flight is the biggest issue for me, being confined with hundreds of other people for hours at a time.

How many threads on here have you seen with 'my kids got chicken pox but we are going on holiday tomorrow, I know we shouldn't travel but I don't want to lose the money' do you think that won't become 'I've got a temperature.....'

I won't willingly put myself in a non essential situation, where I could a) catch it myself b) take it to where I'm travelling to/from and pass it around c) get stuck in a local lockdown. It's not fear, it's common sense when there are so many self cantered people around

Here you are - the latest statistics for RTA deaths. In 2018, there were 1784 deaths, which is around the figure for the last few years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/834585/reported-road-casualties-annual-report-2018.pdf

OP, in order to make a proper risk assessment, you need to have the correct data before you. Whichever website you obtained your figures from when making the assertions in your original post, they are clearly incorrect, and I don’t think you have acknowledged that.

I’m just the wrong side of 60 and have had cancer. At the time of diagnosis, I was given a 34% chance of not surviving a further 5 years. You would think, therefore, that I would be somewhat dismissive of those who are concerned about the relatively small risks posed by coronavirus.

However, in spite of the fact that I am not particularly worried for myself or those I love (at this stage), I am concerned that Covid19 could very easily spread rapidly in the population and cause much more harm, both in terms of death and long term illnesses and in terms of damage to the economy and society as a whole, than it is causing at the moment.

OP, without wishing to sound nasty and judgmental, it does seem to me that you were hoping, when you made your original post, to find some justification for your decision to go on holiday. You have been extremely dismissive of anyone who challenges your views. This is something that will divide opinions and we all need to be a little more accepting of how others see things.

Oh, and by the way, I am now 4 years from that cancer diagnosis and, as far as I am aware, remain cancer free. If I can survive another year, my risk levels will have reduced to that of any other woman of my age. Dangerous times do pass. We just need to find a way of coping with the stresses and strains of living through them.

1784 deaths in a year compared to 45,000 deaths in six months.

Seems similar.

What amuses me is how lots of people seem to think everyone on mn is under 40 with kids at Junior school, all healthy, dont live with grandparents and nobody in their family has any medical conditions. You see it all the time. Person A will assess their own risk and sah they are worried, then person B will jump on it, "oh you are not likely to get it, most people under 40 dont get it and kids never get it" they know nothing of person A's family makeup.

"09:04ChangeThePassword

1784 deaths in a year compared to 45,000 deaths in six months.

Seems similar."
Yes indeed. And the op said "people getting covid", not dying if it. Think we are in the millions of people getting it.

We are currently abroad on holiday in France.

I'm clinically vulnerable but expected to return to work in September to full classrooms and, as part of my time, to go in and out of class and year group bubbles daily. And with no mask, etc.

As said we are currently away. We travelled by train and using trains abroad, staying in hotels but not ones with big resorts, pools etc.

We are wearing masks on public transport and taxis and when indoors. We are using hand sanitiser often as well as washing hands regularly. Masks are being worn by others a lot too.

Social distancing here is 1m but it's easy to be further away from people most of the time.

Everything has felt very Covid safe so far and I don't feel at any more risk than I did in England when heading into work occasionally, going shops and more lately going to a restaurant.

I can't think of much worse than cramming into a tiny tube with recycled air next to hundreds of others, let alone the thousands at airports and public transport needed at either end. Being sick in another country where I don't have a great grasp of the language would be pretty scary too.
@Alaska all I can hope is that you don't have anyone you love get as sick as my friend has been since having a mild case. Anyone who has seen the debilitating long term effects on a family would be cautious and not dismissively posting about "drama llamas" after a deadly pandemic.

I think what you are really asking OP is why it is that people don't agree with you re what the risks are - i.e. why their evaluations might be different from yours.

I've not RTFT so may say what's already been said. I don't think it's risk that some/most are having difficulty assessing, I think it's whether the prohibitions are worth going on holiday for. I've not read extensively on this but sitting on a plane wearing a mask for hours and getting your buffet brought to you...that ruins the whole holiday experience for me. All these rules, which I agree with, don't make for a holiday.

We sat for under 2 hours in Eurostar wearing a mask. It was no issue at all. To wear one for the odd 15 minute taxi ride is not an issue either.

I don't like buffet meals at hotels anyway / you never all get to sit down and eat at the same time without someone up and down throughout. . I'm much preferring having table service order for my breakfast at the hotels we are at. Much more pleasant.

No mask when walking about outdoors and no mask when sat at your table, even indoors, at a restaurant and bar. You just pop it on if you need to nip to the toilet, etc. Same as in hotels - you just pop it on for going through the foyer.

There seems to be very little fuss being made about mask wearing indoors at all here in France.

Even in 30+ degree heat wearing a mask every so often isn't that big a deal, and it's not like it's all the time.

The rising infections are proof we simply are not taking this seriously enough, and our ability to evaluate risk is very sloppy and inadequate

They’re not rising, they’re falling. Along with the death rate which, it now turns out, is inflated and includes many deaths from other causes because PHE has counted everyone who’s had Covid in the last six months, despite many of them having recovered.