To wonder why people can't evaluate risk?

[2155User]

Seeing so many posts of people asking opinions on whether they should go on holiday/go away and a huge proportion of responses are "it's too risky" "don't go something might happen" etc

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

So AIBU in thinking people have totally lost the ability the evaluate the risk out there?

Obviously it'll differ if you have medical conditions that make you at higher risk of catching the virus, and quite clearly a holiday is a 'choice'/luxury but still, people just seem scared

The first response was correct: humans are generally pretty pants at calculating risk, and many other things. MN is full of these biases!

Read Daniel kahneman, “Thinking ,Fast and Slow“.

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

I haven't set out to patronise anyone, but I have set out to understand why some people make a poor judgement in relation of risk and their own situation and why others have a higher limit of risk that they find acceptable.

In my view optimism does has a place. If you have a 1% chance of dying from something, you can either view it as that, or you can view it as a 99% chance of living, and i most certainly do the latter

@Watchagotcha

Thanks! Already ordered on amazon

[quote 2155User]@WiseUpJanetWeiss

I haven't set out to patronise anyone, but I have set out to understand why some people make a poor judgement in relation of risk and their own situation and why others have a higher limit of risk that they find acceptable.

In my view optimism does has a place. If you have a 1% chance of dying from something, you can either view it as that, or you can view it as a 99% chance of living, and i most certainly do the latter [/quote]
I note that you compare 'poor judgment' with accepting higher risk.

I think many people, including for example many medical and scientific experts, would say the people making a poor assessment of the risks are those who are most optimistic.

@labyrinthloafer

You've read what I wrote wrongly, but you know that.

I won't take this further with you but you want to be one of these "I'll make you see it my way and prove you wrong" and not actually an informative discussion.

I have set out to understand why some people make a poor judgement

There you go again...

In my view optimism does has a place

Not in risk assessment it doesn’t.

[quote 2155User]@labyrinthloafer

You've read what I wrote wrongly, but you know that.

I won't take this further with you but you want to be one of these "I'll make you see it my way and prove you wrong" and not actually an informative discussion.[/quote]
I don't think you can know what type of person I am!

I'm not sure op why you are judging people who are opting not to go on holiday as being incapable of assessing risk?

For many people the risk of major disruption, going into local lockdown, reduced experiences while there, risk of being quarantined, travel insurance not covering Covid related claims plus the potential of catching the virus might simply not be worth taking, just to go on holiday. It's not that person are poor at risk assessment it's just that they don't want to face any risk of disruption for an entirely optional activity.

Do you judge people who choose not to go on holiday at any other time?

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

Yes, and that's been further discussed and like I've said in many previous posts, I understand so much more now and have a much better understanding

@labyrinthloafer @WiseUpJanetWeiss

Won't even bother giving either of you the time of day.

IIm quite happy to have people like you around because its people like you that will contribute to herd immunity.

FYI for everyone else ... until we have a cure or a vaccine , the only way to stay safe is to socially isolate and where masks .

Is this a stealth boast thread that I’m ok and can afford to go on holiday and not worry about disruption and cost.

I've been following as much localised data as I can for months and that has strongly influenced my attitudes and level of fear factor.

I have been going out and about, starting from daily local walks/ runs and the supermarket, now going further affield. Circumstances mean that life still is not very sociable but I am considering the risk factors of other people I meet up with. There's also the consequences of not doing things to consider. Getting unfit, mental wellbeong.

I'm not going abroad this year for various reasons, mainly that the holiday activities on offer are not appealing, and the risk of lockdowns/ quarentines. I'm happier with the arrangement of staying in a static caravan, a few hours from home, in a location with a good variety of outdoor scenery and activities.

I don't want the virus, nor as a healthy (to my knowledge) woman in my 30s do I feel terror at the prospect of catching it. Statistically it should be a temporary inconvienience rather than something more serious and complicated. Anomalies occur though.

@IfOnlyOurEyesSawSouls

Well I do think it's good there is a balance!

In response to your second sentence, I think this is what I've been trying to understand, what exactly is safe

@WhentheDealGoesDown

Well no, quite clearly not. I mean obviously from a selfish point of view that is the benefit for me, but the conversation was more about understanding that finances may impact your view of risk

Maybe don't join in on a debate/thread if you can't respond properly? you seem to be a very rigid tunnel visioned thinker. I can see that your assessment of risk will be influenced by that and for me your responses lack depth a nuance. I would guess that your understanding of the impact of serious illness is fairly minimal. I would imagine you are planning to drive to Spain/France/Portugal and believe you are unlikely to get ill and if you do it’s unlikely to be that bad. Have you thought about how much it could cost if you DO get ill? Who would care for your child? If you would understand the language well enough to receive adequate treatment? How far to the nearest hospital and where the rest of the group would stay while you all recover?
Do you know where the nearest hospital to your villas is? Do you have insurance (and IF that isn’t available have you wondered why?)?

Oh clearly not...

An interesting topic for considering MN and risk assessment is any thread about children camping in the garden.

They pretty much follow a predictable script. OP describes scenario in which children will potentially camp in the garden. Within 10 posts, the name Sophie Hook is mentioned. An unusual (and horrific) crime from 25 years ago. And still that one crime strikes terror into peoples' hearts and at least 85% of NNers would not let their children camp in a secured garden.Goodness knows how many nights children have spent camping safely and incident-free since then, but it's that one awful incident that still strongly influences people's thinking.

@Itisbetter

I have considered answers to all your questions.

I might be tunnel visioned, but I would definitely hope that this thread demonstrates I am trying to understand everything deeper

For me "safe" has individual and societal implications.

So, on an individual level I want to try and reduce the risk of catching it for me, and my family, whilst recognising that we need to do certain things - go to work, health appointments.

From a societal perspective "safe" to me means keeping transmission rates as low as is possible but recognising that we need to maintain the economy and essential services, which we definitely won't be able to do if we create a resurgence by lots of international travel, no social distancing etc.

I think we do have to accept that we can't have it all for now and that some sacrifices have to be made.

Do you have insurance (and IF that isn’t available have you wondered why?)?

I'm just waiting for the flood of Go Fund Me appeals from people taken ill on holiday or stranded abroad, who don't have insurance or the insurance is refusing to cover Covid related claims.

I haven't checked but I find it hard to believe that insurance companies are covering Covid for holidays booked since this all started.

But the chance of catching it and spreading it are higher than being killed in a crash, whether you die from it is another matter, but it is very spreadable, that is why it is such a global problem, whereas ebola kills a large % that catch it it is not as easy to catch. This spreads easy and fast, for some it can be V bad, you just don't know who that is.

That is where you need further details to make an assessment, what risk group are you in eg Young /old, health condition /healthy, weight etc, where are you going, who with, what are their risks? Both to you and to themselves, What precautions are in place, what precautions are you taking? How many others are abiding by guidelines etc

@"Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc." But dying in a car crash isn't contagious.

I agree. I purposefully watch and read the absolute minimal amount of media and news however my MIL LOVES the news and media, and we view the virus very very differently.

So you're saying your MIL keeps abreast of current events and likes to stay informed, and you don't, you'd rather be in blissful ignorance (don't mean for it to sound that harsh but I cannot think of any other way to word it at the moment)? Your MIL is well-informed so I guess that's why she views the dangers of the virus very very differently from you. I think those who watch and read the news are much more informed and more likely to take this seriously.

I am definitely the cup is half full whereas she is the cup of half empty

Or maybe she is simply far more realistic because is informed of the facts? Being optimistic is fine, and is a good thing. As long as you are being realistic and not running away from something you don't want to face.

If anything, I genuinely feel people are not taking the threat seriously enough and are failing at evaluating the serious risk. To suggest 1000 people die in car crashes in the UK per week, which is what the statistic you posted says, is quite clearly absurd. Also, you cannot compare car crashes because car crashes cannot be 'spread' within the community, it is not a communicable condition. The risk of Covid is very serious, it is more communicable than the flu, the risk is much higher than a car crash, and it's spread and impact is much, much greater.

I think people are making an active choice not to believe scientific reality, and avoid watching the news because they don't want to face the truth themselves. It's a protective measure. If you are not aware of it, it can't hurt you. That kind of thing. The rising infections are proof we simply are not taking this seriously enough, and our ability to evaluate risk is very sloppy and inadequate.

Also, there are nearly 300,000 confirmed cases in the UK, on the basis that there are likely more cases not confirmed the suggestion that the chance of catching it is the same as the chance of dying in a crash is ridiculous based on the fact that on average there are 5 deaths a day, so for this year Jan to now that is just over 1000, so far short of the number of cases, therefore the chance of dying in a crash is no where near the same chance of catching covid.