To wonder why people can't evaluate risk?

[2155User]

Seeing so many posts of people asking opinions on whether they should go on holiday/go away and a huge proportion of responses are "it's too risky" "don't go something might happen" etc

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

So AIBU in thinking people have totally lost the ability the evaluate the risk out there?

Obviously it'll differ if you have medical conditions that make you at higher risk of catching the virus, and quite clearly a holiday is a 'choice'/luxury but still, people just seem scared

The risk of dying of covid is not 1%.
For most of us, it's around 0.2 ish, and that's including co-morbidities
So, if you can only get it once it's less than the car accident risk.

@ACrashInTheNines

The risk of dying of covid is not 1%. For most of us, it's around 0.2 ish, and that's including co-morbidities So, if you can only get it once it's less than the car accident risk.

So that means you are 40 times more likely to die of covid if you are fit and healthy than in a road accident.

I think people are also quite logically worried about being stranded abroad. I know several people this happened to. Eg I've a friend working in China who was planning to visit home in the US before all this kicked off - it got cancelled and she lost the money from the flights. And she has colleagues who did go and are now stuck there away from their jobs. Even if you're visiting somewhere that's safer for coronavirus than the UK, fewer transmissions etc, there's certainly still a possibility that borders between here and there get disrupted during your trip or you have to quarantine there and/or on your way home. Lots of people can't take the risk of having to be away from their job that long and I don't think insurance would cover it?

I think people are also worried about keeping a cushion of some savings in case they lose their jobs or remain furloughed longer. Compared to saving for that, going on a foreign holiday doesn't sound so good. Especially if when you're there things still aren't normal and you can't do the activities you usually enjoy.

@TheGoldenApplesOfTheSun

I agree.

My partner and I are in a lucky position where we have lots of paid time off and I know our jobs will not be affected at all, and therefore I possibly have a slightly skewed positive outlook

You are going to come up with the wrong perception of risk if you start to compare apples (infectious disease in widespread circulation) with pears (RTAs) and look at only crude numbers of deaths as a sole point of comparison.

There were not 1000 RTA deaths a week during lockdown, but there were for an infectious disease that had passed the tipping point into community spread.

The choices of an individual driver might impact on their own car, and those unlucky enough to be involved in the incident. It isn't however going to spread back into their homes, workplaces etc

User. You started the thread by saying that with a risk of 1% there was the same chance of dying in a road traffic accident as dying of Covid. This isn't at all true. Even with Acrashofnines figure, you are 40 times more likely to die of Covid this year. Do you really understand risk?

MN has always been full of posts from people unable to evaluate risk, long before lockdown that was the case. People are seemingly scared of everything, I don't know how they get through day to day life.

@EducatingArti @UnmentionedElephantDildo

As mentioned previously, different websites will give different statistics, and it was just an example, but my main point was to understand why some people have got a total inability to evaluate risk.

Fear and paranoia really have taken over some people's normal function.

I've taken on everyone's comments and tried to understand as much as possible all different points of view

EducatingArti

Sorry, typo - meant to say 0.02 ish!

[quote 2155User]@TheGoldenApplesOfTheSun

I agree.

My partner and I are in a lucky position where we have lots of paid time off and I know our jobs will not be affected at all, and therefore I possibly have a slightly skewed positive outlook [/quote]
Fair enough! Sounds like you're in an enviable position. If I was in your shoes I might well be thinking of a foreign holiday.

I think one thing that's become clear is people have had very different experiences since March. Some have lost their jobs or are in a precarious position at work, others maybe have someone close to them who died of covid so it feels more near at hand. Others are actually saving money (no commute etc) and haven't been affected financially. I think when people talk about being too worried about coronavirus to plan a holiday abroad they're taking all those personal experiences together to think about risks, not just of catching the virus but also losing out in other ways. We each have our personal calculation of what's "worth it" for us I guess, depending on circumstances.

Are you joking op?

"Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc."

I've never seen such a stupid AIBU since AIBU started. I'm embarrassed for you.

But assessing risk isn't just working out the odds of it happening to you, but also how severe the outcome could be for you.

This.

This is what I am taking into account when I make my personal risk assessment for my family right now.

Plus thinking about how my actions tie into the outcome for the larger community - local, national and international.

My daily risk assessment right now includes:

My personal health outcome if/when I catch this.
My family members' health outcome if I am the one who brings this virus to them.
How well the community around me is coping with cases - will my actions make community spread worse right now, and if it does are local resources coping?
If travel/vacations is the issue at hand, how will my actions affect the community I am travelling to? Will I be bringing the virus to an area that cannot cope with a sudden increase in viral loads coming from elsewhere?

I'm not living in fear waiting for a magic vaccine that might never come but I do think the longer we are prepared to be cautious and community-minded with our actions the more chance the scientists and doctors have to find better treatments, including potential vaccines, but maybe simply better treatment protocols. And we don't overwhelm the resources we have.

Flattening the curve is an ongoing process - doesn't have to be full-on lockdown if we are all still mindful of the virus spread.

I don't think that people aren't doing stuff just because of the risk though, but that they can't be arsed with the disruption.

Aren't just not doing it, some obviously are, but many who say they aren't doing x isn't neccesaarily through fear.

And no, medical conditions dont make you more likely to catch it....they make it more likely you will get severly ill

Not necessarily. You are more likely to catch it if you have certain blood cancers (jury is out on mine) or are on certain chemo or other cytotoxic/immune suppressant drugs

And yes, we get it more severely as well.

Not necessarily dying (though my chance is around 5-10%, depending on which source at what stage you read) - we’re definitely over-represented in ICU admissions.

@Chicchicchicchiclana

Funny how you're the only one so far with that view? Such a shame you're not able to have a mature conversation.

@cabingirl

Yes I agree. I think as a young/fit/health person the impact on me if I caught it would likely be minimal and I would be far better off than if I was older/not as healthy etc

People are really, really bad at evaluating risk.

They have been terrified by daily news bulletins since early march about how dreadful it is, how outside is SO dangerous, that everyone has to STAY AT HOME or risk instant death. Lots of people can't assess probability or do simple percentages - in my area there have been 519 infections which sounds horrendous. But out of a population of 108600, that's only 0.48% of the population. Or putting it another way, 99.52% of the population were unaffected.

So it's a combination of being bombarded with horror on the telly, a lack of basic maths, and the way figures are presented.

@SockYarn

I agree. I purposefully watch and read the absolute minimal amount of media and news however my MIL LOVES the news and media, and we view the virus very very differently.

I am definitely the cup is half full whereas she is the cup of half empty

We've had/are having risk evaluation bred out of us as a species

I don't think it's ever really been there. I reckon evolution has programmed into us to be afraid of the immediate danger and not much else
We're instinctively afraid of infection, and it's pretty much all that's been in the news lately. Hence, we've allowed ourselves as a nation to stop screenings and treatments for diseases we do have a chance of saving people from, and we've pitched ourselves into an economic disaster that will ultimately cost more lives than our response to covid ever saved, if it indeed saved any at all.
All do to monkey-brain levels of risk assessment ability.

Op, if covid-19 isn't the biggest single risk to life right now in peaceful, temperate Great Britain (read anywhere in the 1st world) where we have plenty of food to go round, then what is? please enlighten us.

What other issues are there that have caused the excess death rate to spike so high? Please enlighten us.

@2155User having rtft yes you should think in more than black and white. Everyone will have there own risks to evaluate depending on health/age etc.

Watching what is happening in the USA where there have reopened shows the risks if this virus is not controlled.

The question for me is why risk a holiday abroad in the middle of a global pandemic? You are massively upping your risk of coming into contact with covid and spreading it to different countries. It's non-essential and yes it's a risk!

@Chicchicchicchiclana

I won't even respond to your questions, simply on the basis you quite clearly got out of bed the wrong side this morning, or you're always this grumpy, but mainly because you are clearly looking for an argument and not a healthy debate.

It's the risk of spreading it rather than the fear of catching it imho. Where places have opened up cases are increasing again. We have to be a bit cautious now to even hope of controlling it properly. Jetting off to Spain when it's unnecessary is just selfish.

@Fluffymulletstyle

For me personally I've booked holidays for in the next few weeks because I do believe this cannot go on for any longer, the economy is suffering too much.

I am being tested for the virus prior to going and will be staying only in a private villa the entire time.

It definitely is non essential, but so our my daily walks or visits to the park

I'm all for having a mature discussion. I just wonder why people can't evaluate risk for themselves! People who think that avoiding the news and being a glass half full sort of person is any sort of serious argument.