To wonder why people can't evaluate risk?

[2155User]

Seeing so many posts of people asking opinions on whether they should go on holiday/go away and a huge proportion of responses are "it's too risky" "don't go something might happen" etc

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

So AIBU in thinking people have totally lost the ability the evaluate the risk out there?

Obviously it'll differ if you have medical conditions that make you at higher risk of catching the virus, and quite clearly a holiday is a 'choice'/luxury but still, people just seem scared

@camelfinger

I think a lot of people are like you and it's helping me to understand that this isn't one singular reason why people fear or feel the risk of high, and it is not simply because you fear the risk of getting the virus. That actually you don't want to go on holiday because it simply won't feel like a holiday, and I suppose that'll differ for everyone on what they want from a holiday and what they enjoy, if that makes any sense.

if I were sitting with a relative and we were where we were in April and we were asked if we wanted to do treatments then the answer would have been "no, no and no again"

Yet the chances of catching the virus are pretty similar near identical to the chances of dying in a car crash/dying from falling over etc.

Step 1 of risk assessment is: "is this necessary?"

@1Morewineplease @swg1

I think you've both definitely highlighted for me that because I've not been impacted at all by the virus, and like I've said previously I've done quite well from it financially and mentally, my view is definitely more optimistic.

My mother had cancer, and were she ill right now, I might be more in the 'stay at home' camp

@UncleShady

People know that the chance of getting cancer is 1 in 3, they think it won't be them. People know the chance of winning the lottery is 1 in 14 million, they think it will be them.

You do unconscious risk assessments every day - you leave your baby in the trolley to grab something from the other end of the supermarket aisle but you take your bag. Your baby is more precious to you but you've done the risk assessment that someone is more likely to take your bag.

You’ve just reminded me of going shopping with a newborn and leaving her in the shop, forgetting I had a baby😮

Sorry, posted too soon ^
Others would have made a different choice, which might have been the right one.
They were denied that choice.
Like I said and ill say it until I die myself.
Lockdown supporters have the blood of the lockdown deaths on their hands.

@hula008

Absolutely.

But I drove to the park. I crossed the road to get an ice cream from the shop. I rode my bike. Etc etc. These aren't necessary things

I think the problem at the moment is also other people. I am shielding, but I had been in the house since March, decided to just go out for half an hour to the local park. Masked up, did everything I am supposed to. No one else was doing it, they weren't social distancing, pushing past us and there wasn't a huge amount of space to start with. It has put me right off going outside.

If others are seeing the same, plus adding in things like planes, schools or other situations we are less in control with, I can see why people are anxious and need reassurance. This has been an unprecedented event in our lifetimes and the government haven't dealt with this at all well - many of their messages were confusing and freaked people out even more.

@BarbedBloom

Yes, the government messages are the main reason I stopped watching and reading the news often. The messages became filled with confusion, mixed messages and what I felt was scaremongering. Resulting in many people not having a clue what to do or where to go

Your underlying assumptions seem to be that if people have evaluated risk differently from you, or are considering health outcomes (not just death) then you think they can't evaluate.
Statistically there are numerous factors that impact how we assess risk. Plus people have different areas of expertise and education, and access to different levels and standards of information. Considering all the variables, it's actually interesting how many people are assessing risk in the same way. Although as numerous medical experts and psychologists have pointed out, if governments want people to be less risk averse in the current climate then their country has to have very low rates, a robust track and trace system, clear communication and easy to understand processes. Without those, people will accurately assess that risks are still high.

[quote 2155User]**@EducatingArti* @UnmentionedElephantDildo*

As mentioned previously, different websites will give different statistics, and it was just an example, but my main point was to understand why some people have got a total inability to evaluate risk.

Fear and paranoia really have taken over some people's normal function.

I've taken on everyone's comments and tried to understand as much as possible all different points of view[/quote]
Offs
You are the one who can’t evaluate risk. It’s statistical yes, but you need to understand the statistics you are quoting which you don’t.

In any case you are not complaining about people’s evaluation of risk. You are complaining about their mitigation actions which can seem disproportionate. But they vary from person to person. A wealthy person may not be troubled by the cost of a cancelled holiday or the need to buy a flight home. Somebody who doesn’t have much money may not be able to take that risk.

Some people can afford to prop up the economy, some can’t.

Getting tested before you go out is a waste of time if you have no symptoms. If you do have symptoms don’t fucking travel.

Honestly you are perfect example of the thing you complain about. You must be looking to goad.

@AnneOfQueenSables

No, that's no what I'm implying or saying at all, and I'm sorry if it's come across that way. Obviously if you have medical conditions etc then you are likely evaluate risk in a totally different way to me. But there are young/fit/healthy people who are seemingly incredibly fearful of something which is incredibly low risk, and even if they did catch it, the impact would be minimal. I'm trying to say that some people's evaluation of risk is not in line with their health/age/situation etc, their evaluation of risk is not proportionate.

@LemonTT

I have actually discussed the points you have made, for example that finances etc will massively impact whether you take a risk or not, and that I understand because I am in the fortunate position of not worrying about work/finances etc my view will therefore be different to others.

I'm not sure why you feel getting tested is a waste of time. I am getting tested on the basis I may hold the virus but yet be asymptomatic, and therefore I would like to know before I leave in case I spread it asymptotically.

Either way, you appear ready for an argument when this thread has developed way further than that.

@2155User
I think it's brilliant that people all think and see things differently, but I do think it's sad when people don't feel able to do things because of the posed risk which is actually very very minimal.
Yes but you’re missing fairly large part of the thinking if you ignore the “benefit” in a risk benefit analysis. I wonder if you have considered how much people really get out of some of the activities you see as minimally risky?

@Itisbetter

I have tried to understand it as best I can, but hence why I started this thread, I am always trying to understand more and I'm taking everything everyone says on and thinking about it.

But I have a young toddler, as do lots of my friends, and there are some who still won't leave the house through fear and are losing their mind so to speak but still don't want to go outside, and ones who are the total opposite and yet seem and appear so much happier. So yes, I do believe that many things that are minimally risky but that people are still sometimes to worried to do play a huge part in our lives

Agree.most of us are abysmal at evaluating risk.

I’m sure there are plenty of desperate miserable people in parks and on “acceptable to you” outings.

@Itisbetter

Sorry but I've no idea how you've jumped from a decent discussion to that response.

Maybe don't join in on a debate/thread if you can't respond properly?

In Ireland and have a lower incidence of the virus than the UK.

We are not going abroad for holidays this summer. Not because I am incapable of assessing my personal risk. My reason is that as a community we have sacrificed so much to get the virus under control. I want the schools to reopen as normal in September. By sticking with our government's advice to avoid non essential travel abroad, we are reducing the chance of a second wave. Controlling the virus takes more than everyone just considering their own personal risk.

I think that a lot of people who ask should I go on holiday are really wanting to know if others would make the same choice as them as they don't want people to look at them when they say they cancelled/went ahead.
Some people have been super judgy during this COVID period about going out/staying at home since March, sending kids to school/not sending them to school, using childcare while wfh/struggling wfh, shopping in a supermarket weekly/thinking that supermarket shoppers are murderers...

@netflixismysidehustle

Yes, quite a few other people have said that and I think you're right; people are looking for confirmation as to whether their choice is acceptable because they don't want to be the odd one out!

I have chosen not to go on holiday not because i worry about getting Covid19 but because;

1. I don't want to get stuck somewhere under local lockdown as I need to come back to work
2. I don't want to risk losing money as many insurance companies won't insure covid19 related risk
3. I don't want to have to quarantine when I return to UK as I would need to go to work and rules can change quickly.
4. On balance it's not crucial to go away

So it's not just because people are scared as your first post implies.

@BlueJava

No, I understand that now as this thread has developed, thank you

^Like I said and ill say it until I die myself.
Lockdown supporters have the blood of the lockdown deaths on their hands.^

And if we hadn't give into lockdown there would be those saying that you have blood on your hands.

You think those treatments and tests would have been running if the NHS had been completely overwhelmed with Covid-19 cases? You think the economy wouldn't have crashed anyway?

I'm pretty cautious but mostly because a) I want covid to go away generally and b) a lot of people are taking the piss with the things they are doing!

The people who are only evaluating individual risk are mucking it up for everyone, tbh. There's not much you can do about it, without draconian control which I don't support, but an individualistic response means we'll have more of it for longer.

[quote 2155User]@Chicchicchicchiclana

I read the necessary news, I don't avoid it all, but I don't think it's healthy to watch the news updates 10 x a day and have it drummed into your from all angles that there is a virus and people are dying.

I'm not quite sure why you're taking issue with my positive outlook. Like my previous responses have shown, I do take this seriously, but I'm allowed to view as much as I can as 'glass half full' as it'll mentally keep me in a better state[/quote]
Optimism has no place in a risk assessment OP.

By all means be positive, but don’t patronise those who make their personal decisions based on a rational and evidenced based understanding of both likelihood and consequence, weighed up against the benefits.