To believe that it won't all be over by Christmas

[caroline161]

I hope it will but really. Does anyone truly believe this or do you think that covid-19 is going to cause a lot of trouble this winter?
Yes it will all be back to normal by Christmas
No we are in for a tough winter.

@kazzyhoward it could easily have been the second wave with the first being last winter when everyone put it down to normal winter deaths. I don't believe this to be the case tbh but it's easy to see how it is possible. Coming from a medical background within a medical family.

Epythymy

You don't seriously believe this is a government conspiracy?

The lockdown was a brute force measure to reduce transmission and limit cases when we did not have the tools to monitor how widespread it was. If we locked down a week earlier we d have had roughly a quarter of the deaths we have; a week later 4 times as many etc.

Right now the government is trying to reduce cases and further transmission in as many ways possible because realistically it takes 3 to 4 weeks for the impact of measures to be seen in cases. Many measures have happened at the same time and simple measures that can be taken will buy more time/ leeway to relax further and possibly save lives.

Are you thinking we should just open like America did. Gullible idiots listened to him about beating covid and look how that ended up.

So, yes, possible, in fact likely we've had covid for longer than we thought, but that simply means it doesn't spread as fast as we thought

I am an academic researcher and a lot of my work has been on Covid, I would agree with this. If it had been around significantly longer then firstly our excess deaths would have been much higher from much earlier (same in other countries), this was not observed. Secondly, oftomh I think we tested several thousand people before finding the first positive case. We were only testing people who had been in exposed areas at that time but even still, if it was more widespread we would have seen a higher ratio of positive results.

I actually feel a bit pissed off that the question was even posed to BJ, and even more so at his answer "will we be able to have a big family christmas, like normal?" . He is not a fortune teller, hes not a medic, hes not a scientist....truth is nobody knows (even MN!!) He blustered his way through it, with a feel good answer when in reality he could have said "it's not possible to say for sure and will depend on various criteria, but I hope so" or even deferred to "the science".
I get that they want people to think things are normal and behave normally and more importantly spend normally.....but to come out with that is pretty unrealistic IMO....but I'm not sure why the question was posed in the first place. If we knew or could predict what would happen with CV19 5 months ahead, we wouldnt be in the situation were facing now!!

@MotherMorph indeed! Daft question. Although tbf some enterprising young spark could probably tart up their election manifesto by adding clairvoyancy to the list of promises.

The Oxford vaccine team are actually doing both of these things though aren't they? They're completing Phase 3 in Brazil to expose participants to more of the virus and they're planning and recruiting for a challenge phase.

Not yet....

Adrian Hill, director of Oxford Jenner Institute, said the team were working on the technical side of the preparation for a human challenge trial, and it hoped to recruit volunteers within months.

“We’re hoping to be doing challenge trials by the end of the year,” he said. “This might be in parallel or might be after the phase three trial is completed. They’re not competing options, they’re complementary.”

If it isn't over by Christmas, I think many people will become more relaxed about the rules and the risks unless those risks substantially increase.

We can't go back to normal until we at least have data on the long term effects of CV19. We know what the flu does as it's been around for so long. But we we have at best 6 months data on CV19. I'm not sure I fancy being a guinea pig on long term effects.

ep I wanted lock down sooner than it happened but was aware we wouldn't be back to normal by summer as winter would mess it up again. Again, I bought face masks in Feb but was already writing off the next 12 months.

@megletthesecond

We can't go back to normal until we at least have data on the long term effects of CV19. We know what the flu does as it's been around for so long. But we we have at best 6 months data on CV19. I'm not sure I fancy being a guinea pig on long term effects.

ep I wanted lock down sooner than it happened but was aware we wouldn't be back to normal by summer as winter would mess it up again. Again, I bought face masks in Feb but was already writing off the next 12 months.

What do you class as "long term effects" though? A year, two, ten?

We can't afford to simply sit and wait around that long, just in case there are long term effects. If we do then I think the economic long term effects will be far worse for most people.

@walksen
No, I think we should have followed a similar approach to the Swedish model, longer term. I think we should have locked down as we did when we did or a bit earlier in order to make people take it more seriously. However, once we got more facts, realised the virus was in decline etc we should have opened up more quickly (ie schools!) and the government should have been more honest. I feel as though now the government is simply trying to defend itself and its actions with no regard to The Science or evidence etc. And will continue spreading fear of The Virus long into winter to ensure destroying the economy seemed like a reasonable choice at the time.

I don't believe there will be much of a second spike. After every relaxing of the measures there has been a predicted second spike which has not come. VE Day, beaches, protests, pubs. We're allowed to mingle within homes. I don't know anyone that is not going about their normal life now, if I'm honest. If you ignore the R number and focus on what actually matters which is deaths then there has been no increase anywhere and we now know that PHE is falsely inflating the death rate...

This is now a political issue rather than a pandemic.

@SockYarn

North Wales is rife with this virus

You mean statements like this, @Ethelfleda? Statements which are most probably totally made up, but presented as fact?

North Wales isn't "rife" with anything. Numbers are decreasing there just as with everywhere else. And is "swanning around" the new "flocking and flouting"?

Definitely this, there was someone on Twitter earlier this week saying how it's spiking (or whatever phrase is being used that week) in Cornwall, cases are on the rise. They bloody aren't.

There are too many "armchair" experts that think they know because they've read something or listened to the news and interpreted it in their own way and it's now 100% fact. Don't ever try to counter the point (if you can be arsed) because you'll be an uninformed idiot.

As far as Christmas is concerned, I reckon for a fair amount, distancing will be out the window, family and friends will get together and people will go for a few well earned pints in the pub.

Good luck to them, people have had enough of this, many are losing their jobs and if anyone thinks, Johnson, Sunak, Hancock and Co. give two shits about that, they are very naive.

Complete agree PhilCornwall

If we had followed the Swedish model, we would have more deaths than we do. For some that is an acceptable price to have schools open.

I don't believe that not limiting deaths to 28 days was done as a deceptive measure and ultimately I can't get worked up about it as low testing in care homes and the community in the early stages means that we have more significantly underestimated figures according to the ons excess analysis.

Ultimately I guess we will just have to wait and see and what happens when schools return. I don't think schools can be covid secure and even SD is only required "where possible". teenagers do not take SD seriously as they tend not to get I'll and lots of people think they don't pass it on when we don't know one way or the other yet.

Hopefully it will not lead to a spike, but if it does I'm not sure what the answer is. Scotland is back before England so cases there will be watched closely.

We all have opinions but I think one of the biggest dangers is the amount of people who appear to have become armchair experts overnight and are irresponsibly espousing completely unqualified opinions.

@epythymy I don’t know if you put anything up thread but are you qualified in this area? I ask as I do have a couple of real concerns over your post. I am not a doctor but I am an academic researcher and I’m working in this area, but I’m really anxious of people having overtly strong opinions based either on hindsight or headlines, which overall really undermine the key public health messages. Specifically, discounting the R rate is very dangerous since it is an essential antecedent to increased deaths. By the time people start dying it’s too late. Also, what’s your source for knowing PHE “falsely inflated” the death rate? Statistically the most reliable measure of impact is excess deaths, which actually affirm that PHE have significantly underestimated the number of deaths attributable to Covid, most notably during the period up until care home and community deaths were accounted for. We have always known that there have been errors in the numbers, but the PHE line is a witch-hunt on the part of the government trying to diffuse accountability. The pandemic has always been political issue, but the countries which have done best are the ones who have made public health their political priority, not political health.

The difference in countries like Sweden is that they are much less inclined to question government policy, particularly as it was led by the state epidemiologist. This means they are more likely to comply, which they largely did without the need to mandate closures or strict social distancing measures. Economically this has probably had a positive effect but would have been extremely difficult to achieve here, not least because of the numbers of people who don’t trust the government and generally choose not to follow advice, as evidenced by the Dominic Cummings debacle.

From my perspective, prioritising public health is in the interests of the economy, that’s where we went wrong and continue to go wrong but because we let it get out of control it will take us much longer to recover not just our way of life but crucially then confidence we need to be able to get back to any sense of normality

I think it's wishful thinking.

I really hope it is, but for the life of me I can't see how on earth it will be.

I think some of the restrictions will still be in place. Face coverings in some situations, one way systems or restricted numbers in shops, for example.

Unfortunate but partly caused by the slow reaction in February and March, which cost many lives more than could have been the case.

I can't see Christmas being normal this year at all. I think the best we can hope for is that we're not back in lockdown with cases running out of control and that the test and trace, the more sensible people social distancing etc has worked ok and cases are at a flat manageable rate.

I am hopeful though for a vaccine. I refuse to give up hope for this. The Oxford vaccine trials do seem to be progressing well and I will continue to hope and pray that they succeed. I don't think it will be this year but imagine how brilliant it would be if there was a breakthrough by next Spring.

We all have opinions but I think one of the biggest dangers is the amount of people who appear to have become armchair experts overnight and are irresponsibly espousing completely unqualified opinions

This.
The rest of your lost was also really insightful and well balanced!

Thank you @Ethelfleda

Thing is, how much should we see as continued restriction and how much should actually become normal.

E.g. face coverings, people object to them and feel that we shouldn’t have to wear them, but in the Far East the wearing of face coverings is a way of life even outside of a pandemic situation, this is why in many of the Far Eastern countries the death rate has been so low despite the fact that those countries have far denser populations than ours.

This pandemic has highlighted that there are things which we should be looking at more closely anyway, e.g. hand hygiene. It is shocking that it had to be reiterated to people that they should wash their hands when this is what they should have been doing anyway. there is already evidence that other viruses have been less prevalent since hand washing has become more of an expectation, so surely handwashing should be seen as part of what we do, not just something we do when there’s a pandemic.

Also, while people are criticising those who say that it’s just like the flu, while obviously COVID can be serious, the reality is that in 80% of cases people are a-symptomatic, and in the vast, vast majority of cases people survive. And while it’s not PC to say it, truth is we’re all going to die of something. Now obviously that doesn’t mean we should all be signing up for the cause right now, but it does mean that you can’t live so much of your life in fear of this one thing that you’re not actually living the life you’re protecting.

I know only too well that anyone could catch COVID and anyone could die of it, after all nobody knows they don’t have an underlying condition, I found that out the hard way when I caught the flu nearly four years ago and it was discovered that I have a genetic heart condition, and now other heart conditions which that flu enabled, and now I will need a heart transplant. I am at serious risk if I catch COVID and have been shielding. But this can’t just be about me and others like me. It’s not realistic to expect life to be put on hold indefinitely. People have jobs, children, lives, and those are also important.

There has to come a point where we have to live with the virus and be more aware of it. It’s around for the duration probably, because even if there’s a vaccine it will likely be an annual one and not everyone will be eligible for it much as the flu jab. And people will still catch COVID, and people will still die of COVID, as they die of the flu each year.

The one thing I would advise is for everyone to have a flu jab. If you’re not eligible you can pay for it. Not because you’re now at greater risk of the flu but because if you catch flu then your resistance will be low so if you then catch COVID you will find it harder to fight off.

However, once we got more facts, realised the virus was in decline etc we should have opened up more quickly (ie schools!)

They tried but teachers and their unions objected.

This pandemic has highlighted that there are things which we should be looking at more closely anyway, e.g. hand hygiene. It is shocking that it had to be reiterated to people that they should wash their hands when this is what they should have been doing anyway. there is already evidence that other viruses have been less prevalent since hand washing has become more of an expectation, so surely handwashing should be seen as part of what we do, not just something we do when there’s a pandemic.

Fully agree. And even when we knew what was coming, lots of people still wouldn't wash their hands regularly!

I was fairly surprised when we stopped at motorway services a few times on our drive to and from our holiday. Toilets were incredibly clean, but still most people were giving their hands a cursory 5 second run under the tap, or indeed not washing them at all. I looked quite unusual with my full on lathered up hand washing.

Sad that such a basic way to fight off infection has been neglected in favour of more complex and intrusive measures.

This was last week btw, so not like people shouldn't be aware of the benefits of hand washing.

I think you should switch the TV off and start reading about all the T-cell and coronvirus (common colds) studies - also, the inflated figures on both cases and deaths inquiry urgently requested into PHE/NHS - their debt was wiped too let's not forget.

It's all been hyped up. We have to live with it like the flu (more flu deaths 2yrs ago WITH a vaccine) and keep vulnerable safe during winter months.