To believe that it won't all be over by Christmas

[caroline161]

I hope it will but really. Does anyone truly believe this or do you think that covid-19 is going to cause a lot of trouble this winter?
Yes it will all be back to normal by Christmas
No we are in for a tough winter.

No it won't be over by Christmas. In fact when I heard this I had a horrible image come to mind. Didn't we have a,PM long ago who promised a,certain war would be over by Christmas? Anyone know how that worked out?
I'd love it to be over but in reality I think we'll just have to get used to a different way of living as the virus isn't going anywhere.

I don't think it will be, but I think people will be so fed up of social distancing by then they will carry on as normal.

Yeah

Just like when we said this is 1914...

I hope I’m wrong but i don’t think so either.

Vallance and co reckon 12-18 months for a vaccine and I don’t think things will be normal until then. France is having an increase in cases, I think Barcelona are going back into lockdown.

Macron has said they won’t have a full lockdown in France again no matter what happens, that the economic price is too much. Instead local restrictions/mini lockdowns. He is preparing for a second wave.

I suspect we’ll follow that route.

My virologist neighbour is really quite alarming about a second wave. If he's right then absolutely it won't be over by Christmas.

@LaurieFairyCake

Yeah

Just like when we said this is 1914...

Good point.

It's very upsetting. We haven't seen our lovely daughter since last Christmas and since she's working and mixing with people she understandably won't visit in case she unknowingly infects us (I'm 66 and my husband is 73). It doesn't look as though the situation will be any better by next Christmas, and tbh I'm seriously wondering whether we'll ever see her again. Mind you, I'm not known for looking on the bright side .

Still, I suppose we have to be thankful that we're all remaining fit and well so far and can talk on the phone (landline). I don't have a mobile phone of any kind and my husband's isn't a smart phone, so there's no possibility of seeing each other via phones. I wonder if the situation will ever get better. Quite frankly, unless and until there's a vaccine, this might be as good as it gets for the foreseeable future.

Quite frankly, unless and until there's a vaccine, this might be as good as it gets for the foreseeable future

I think you’re right. In such case could you see your daughter now whilst you have the chance?and would you consider upgrading phone(s) to give you more context? It found like it has been hard on you

Ffs

Context = contact
Found = sounds

There is nothing smart about smart phones

I'm hopeful that there will be a vaccine will be approved by spring/summer 2021.

And if there is a second wave, which I think there could probably be, I'm also hopeful that it won't be as bad as the first. We have an idea of what to expect now, more testing and PPE are available, and people are aware about social distancing.

...either that or people will revert back to panic buying loo roll and stealing hand sanitizer from hospitals .

It won't be over by Christmas, in the sense of everything returning to how it was before or the virus being totally eradicated, but things will hopefully feel as though we are living through a pandemic rather than controlled by it.
The emphasis needs to change from minimising the number of corona related deaths to minimising the total numbers of deaths and this requires a greater acceptance from the population as a whole that the current level of deaths from the virus is both acceptable and optimal if it allows people access to the vast majority of activities in some form or another. There also needs to be a more permanent acceptance that close contact such as hugs and handshakes with people outside of your household will have to remain substantially more limited for the foreseeable future as this will allow for the greatest relaxation of other restrictions that are more of a burden on everyday life and especially the economy, which needs to be protected if we want to maintain a functioning NHS.

What is "it"?
Coronavirus infections? Deaths? Lockdown?
According to ONS total weekly deaths have been slightly below the five year average for a few weeks now. Perhaps that figure will increase with things opening up more, but right now there are not greater numbers of people dying than usual.
We have to get back to normal, sooner rather than later. I find it disturbing how many people seem determined to whip up the hysteria and keep people terrified and restricted tbh.

I really hope not. I'm due a baby in January and I'm prone to pnd so being locked up with nowhere to go could be really tough for me. The thought is scaring me.

I don't think it'll be over, I have a significant birthday in December and haven't bothered planning anything for it as I reckon we will have another lockdown by then.

It’s very depressing thinking about it. It won’t be over for years without a vaccine, or effective treatment being given early enough. People point out that a vaccine is unlikely as there has never been one for SARS or MERS but these were never so easily transmitted or widespread so there is a lot more incentive and effort being put into producing one for covid. Even if a vaccine isn’t 100% effective, and just gives slight protection, making infections milder and less deadly, at least that is something. We can always hope for a miracle as well.

@RhianFuckingMorris

Not a fucking chance. I'm pretty certain as we go into cold winter with no shut down and no heatwave to get people outside plus social distancing fatigue and get togethers at Christmas it will spread like wildfire and the inevitable second wave will make what we've just experienced seem like a breeze.

I hope I'm wrong but sadly i think the winter of 2020/21 will be a fucking grim one.

@RhianFuckingMorris...I'm in the middle of a heatwave with over 90 degree heat for the past month. Over a 100 degrees with heat index. It's worse now than it has ever been. Everyday we break the previous day record of new cases

I'm lucky enough to be somewhere where Covid is relatively under control, but even then I don't think it'll be normality by Christmas.

The UK? Not a chance.

@leeaannb which state are you in? Florida? I know lots of places now have bars closed, but they did not for a while. The virus is surging in younger people. I'm in New Hampshire, thank god we are one doing really good, but sadly most of the country is not

Perhaps the virus is not religious and does not care about Christmas.

@PastMyBestBeforeDate

My virologist neighbour is really quite alarming about a second wave. If he's right then absolutely it won't be over by Christmas.

I think this is the reality - scientists are worried, government is winging it.

I asked on another thread will you be booking seats for your 70yrs+ relatives to join you at the panto? I certainly won't. So it won't be normal.

This is the time to cautiously see those you haven't seen for a while and have your socially distanced meet ups. The virus (apart from in hotspots) isn't circulating particularly widely. We will all be hunkered down at Xmas, as evidence is beginning to show that, like most corona viruses, Covid 19 is seasonal and emerged here at the latter half of it's season this year.

We can't afford a local lockdown so it will be rolling local lockdowns and the shielding of the most vulnerable. Get your flu jabs as the hospitals and GPs will be busy...

I work in PH and this is being described as the lull or the quiet time, or the calm before the storm. I very much hope we are wrong...

*can't afford a national lockdown

And the usual doom mongers are out in force I see....

There are people on here who clearly won’t be happy until half the population has been wiped out and there are bodies piling up in the streets as per the hysteria which was doing the rounds at the beginning of all this.

Lockdown was never about eradicating the virus. It was about slowing the spread in order that the NHS would cope, and it was hoped that the peak would happen during the summer so that hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed in the winter when it is flu season and norrovirus are more prevalent.

The infection rates have reduced. We are mostly into double figures now in terms of death rate, whereas before we were experiencing 5/6/700 plus deaths a day.

The ONS death figures are at a five year low now, so even lower than they were before the pandemic.

At the beginning of this the estimate was that 500000 people could die as a result of the first wave and that was worst case scenario. Now the estimate is 120000 for a second wave, so around a quarter of what was predicted in the first wave, and while our death rate was high we didn’t even come close to that.

COVID is always going to be a thing. Even when there is a vaccine people will still catch COVID, and people will still die from COVID, much as they do with the flu now.

And as much as people catch flu and report that they’ve had a miserable experience and then come back from it, so people will say the same about COVID in the future.

Who knows what the future holds really. But is there anything to be achieved by spreading this kind of hysteria and whipping people back up into a frenzy? We have to take things week by week, and what will be will be.

Also, there is significant evidence that the number of cases of flu and vomiting bugs is at an all time low in countries where it is now flu season due to the increase in social distancing and more importantly hand hygiene. So there is perhaps a longer-term message there which isn’t just about COVID.

But lower flu numbers means less pressure on the health services....