Where are those who predicted 18 months lockdown now

[AfterAte]

Firstly I realise that the lockdown in England is only being eases not ended. I am also aware that it is entirely possible there will be a second lockdown necessitated by a second spike. Finally, I am aware of and grateful for the sacrifices of those frontline workers, sad for those who have lost loved ones and both aware and grateful for the sacrifices of those who died in the 2 world wars and in other conflicts.

On 21st March on this website a thread entitled "How long are you expecting this to go on for?" was posted. Several posters speculated that "this" would last 18 months or longer and others also said there would likely be a war as well. I realise there has been terrible suffering and my mental health has been I impacted. However, rightly or wrongly, the lockdown is significantly eased and plans are being made for a near future which can in no way be described as lockdown. I wondered if any of those who predicted 18 months would like to comment here and perhaps admit that they were wrong. I'm afraid I still see their motivation as primarily to drag others down, so I'm not holding my breath, but neither am I prepared not to call them out. They've ruined MN, and they made an awful awful time worse.

And who really thinks the experts have all the information?

There’s!

And who really thinks the experts have all the information?

Indeed.

ofgs, people just react differently to threat/fear/risk.

I was calm (ish) but I didn't think any of this was going away soon and I was lambasted for that. A lot of posters couldn't cope with anybody who wasn't wilfully OPTIMISTIC (regardless of reason to be optimistic).

It was not a ''desire to drag others down'' fgs, it was what I felt was most likely.

A lot of people have realised that the average age of the person who dies from covid is 83, and so they've stopped worrying, but that doesn't mean that this has gone away. I know people who have to still cocoon even as the rest of the world peeps out from under the parpapet. Heart issues, children with SN. This hasn't gone away for everybody. Do I lack optimism?! [geez]

I don't know what you're reprimanding other posters for @AfterAte

Language like ''detonate'' is ridiculous. It's other people's posts that ''detonate''. Your own are reasoned and fine. Right!

I don't think anyone believed lockdown would go on for 18 months, but the prevalence and risk of covid19 without an available vaccine will certainly go on that long and things won't be 'normal' - with the risk of further localised lockdowns and/or a return now and then to nationwide lockdown if the R increases

That is exactly what's happening so far anyway. We are still a very long way from normal.

On 21st March on this website a thread entitled "How long are you expecting this to go on for?" was posted.

...just searched for this thread. This is the OP:

"Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas. And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc"

...I read that as when will it be totally "back to normal", as in no need for social distancing and closing some places as bars and nightclubs etc, rather than when will full on lock down end. And the answer then was no one really knew, they still don't, plus this was early March when there were so many unknowns and also, lockdown hadn't even started on the 21st of March!

I'm a nurse, my hospital redeployed a lot of us (myself included) to covid wards. We were all told that this would be for 6 months at the earliest (!) by management. But it was actually only for 3 months (though who knows what might happen in the future). Should I go and demand that my manager apologise for being wrong?!

I also would have said 18 months, and I do still think that's correct: Chris Whitty has said that social distancing will be necessary until early next year at the earliest. Until we have a vaccine or herd immunity works, the best thing we can do is try to stop the spread. I've just accepted it as the "new normal" (hate that phrase). Obviously I hope that it will be over sooner, but going for a 'hope for the best and plan for the worse mindset' to avoid disappointment.

I'm starting to think that we won't be fully back to the old, pre-covid normal until next year.

I don't think anyone believed lockdown would go on for 18 months

Even if this was the correct thing to do from a virus perspective it was never going to happen because of human nature & the fact we are the UK. So many posters wanted to lockdown like China. Because that's not problematic 🙄

@doolallyboo

I'm perfectly willing to cut people who are frightened and saying all sorts about how it's really bad some slack for those reasons.

@RedToothBrush well why not cut some slack to the OP then since those posters obviously frightened her? Or is it the usual Be Kind nonsense which is Be Kind to those with the same opinion as me?

Because the OP hasn't actually HAD a trauma or dealt with one or having to live with the knowledge that they are extremely at risk.

The OP is saying threads are ruining her life rather than having actual things ruin her life. Its on another level.

As I've said in the thread, people cope in different ways, but if your life is being ruined by threads on MN the solution is to adjust your social media habits not have a go at everyone else who may be also struggling to cope.

Everyone is struggling to cope in their own way. The difference is the degree with which people have the ability to mitigate that.

This thread is very much like the FT article about the upper class twit who posted about how hard they'd found lockdown which just showed them up as living in a parallel dimension to everyone else.

Its one thing to have different opinions which I do encourage, its about then expressing them and processing them in context with the rest of the world which is more problematic. Thats not about 'being kind' at all (utterly abhorent phrase) its about applying a certain level of realism to whats going on. You can not live in a bubble where you ignore death and ongoing life limiting restrictions (whether imposed by government or the phyiscal affects of covid). Part of 'life going on' is to realise what 'life going on' actually means to a hell of a lot of people.

'Be Kind' is a message which is about supressing reality and the truth rather actually 'being kind'. It is important to have different opinions, but when you challenge others with your opinion, you have to be prepared to be challenged back and maybe be told that you are being ridiculous in the grand scheme of things. And to point this out - the OP was having a rant about how people who said this would go on for 18months, should shut up because they had ruined MN for them so respecting others opinion wasn't exactly what the OP was up for either. People have a right to reply and context is everything.

It is all round a depressing situation.

It’s made more depressing by reading people’s entrenched positions which are often very selfish. Some people have been going out/meeting others/having haircuts etc etc throughout which makes some of us feel “well, what was the point?”

And then others have been horribly hysterical and demanding the whole world stays in to save them. There have been a few posters like this and scratch the surface and they are often retired with no need to work (or in a safe as houses wfh job), have no dcs or young adult dcs and have a nice garden into the bargain. There was one absolute charmer who urged us all to give up shopping/holidays/going out and return to the simpler life of the past. Funny how these people are fine and dandy with online deliveries, the goods being manufactured and delivered by magic... and before anyone shrieks, “But I’m shielding “ yeah, well, so am I but I don’t reckon I’m speshul enough to shut the country down for.

I'm in Leicester and it genuinely feels like it's been 18 months already. I feel like the kids and I are forgetting what normal life is

OP hindsight is an amazing thing. Are you going to apologise for everything you have ever got wrong before you knew the outcome? Thought not. Like I said hindsight is an amazing thing.

And the answer then was no one really knew, they still don't, plus this was early March when there were so many unknowns and also, lockdown hadn't even started on the 21st of March!

It was fairly obvious that lockdown was about to be announced by the 21st March though wasn't it? Lets be honest about this.

It officially started just two days later, and there were enough rumours in the press - with people having pre-lockdown parties that weekend, the rest of Europe was locked down, flights to different countries had stopped, the schools were shut and we'd been told to start avoiding bars and restuarants and to avoid others socially.

We knew what was incoming and restrictions had already started. People were already having their lives disrupted and knew it would last for some time.

Its hardly a controversial point.

As I say, context is important.

12th March - do you think that the UK PM would have made the following speech lightly? Particularly the part starting "I've got to be clear"
www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-coronavirus-12-march-2020
Then after that, every emerging piece of guidance and control measure not being at all clear, changing all the time in a matter of days, and so left to individual (or, in the case of schools, hospitals etc, organisational) interpretation, and also very difficult to enforce or balance up.
John M. Barry is a researcher who wrote one of the definitive books on the 1918 flu in the USA in particular (where there seems to have been a lot more data to go on than in Europe). States that actually trusted their leadership and had trustworthy messages had a lot more success in the final analysis than others.
That's why I'm not skipping with optimism just yet, though I'm in the 'too early to tell' camp as well.

Funny how these people are fine and dandy with online deliveries, the goods being manufactured and delivered by magic... and before anyone shrieks, “But I’m shielding “ yeah, well, so am I but I don’t reckon I’m speshul enough to shut the country down for.

Yes I always find this weird. To be able to stay indoors for a long time but not recognise that others need to not do that in order to facilitate your need is odd.

@Lweji

Here is an example - thread about someone worried they won't see their parents for 18 months and some joyful soul chips in with a statement that it will be at least a year IF EVER. Just why?

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3871787-Am-I-going-to-be-unable-to-see-my-parents-for-18months-or-longer

I suspect the OP is like this pp.
The thread given as example is nothing like the pp described.

Covid will probably stay with us forever or a long time until smallpox style eradication is possible.
And containment measures will last some time. The threat of covid will probably be important enough for the next couple of years, depending on a vaccine. Certainly until next year.
The 18 months mark was the estimate for a vaccine, which would help us get back to normal.

I really wish people would educate themselves about the issues through experts reported in the news. And did read posts properly.

I would be very surprised if the OP was able to find a post that said that lockdown would last 18 months.

So it's fine to pop up on threads with a distressed OP and imply that the OP would not, in fact, see family for 12 months (incorrect obviously)?

It was just a quick random example but there was bloody loads of it going on.

If someone posts that their relative has esophageal cancer and they're really worried, should I post "Oh yes, that's a painful one and my uncle died within 3 weeks of diagnosis" ? It might be true but it's not necessary, is it?

They've ruined MN, and they made an awful awful time worse

Did the posters hurt your feelings with their opinions? Did you want them to apologise to you? But, what if they're not wrong? Life is hardly going back to normal for a long while. And other countries have locked down a second time. So why are you so sure we won't? Personally I can't see life getting back to normal for a very long time. That's simply an opinion. We're all allowed one of those. Right?

The key point for me is that many posters wilfully did not specify what they meant by "this".
Some of these posters probably wanted to gain the kudos of bigging themselves up as having had both the insight to see things as they are and the gumption to say an unpalatable truth when in fact they have been disseminating fear and sadness

Well pandemics such as this are a little hard to predict the outcome exactly doncha think? Something governments have struggled with? Yet you expect ordinary posters here to provide you with an accurate prediction or shut up unless they spread sadness and fear with their words? Seriously, I think you should seek help from a counselor if this is how other people's words impact you.

• Because the OP hasn't actually HAD a trauma or dealt with one or having to live with the knowledge that they are extremely at risk.

*The OP is saying threads are ruining her life rather than having actual things ruin her life. Its on another level.

I don't know anything about the OPs background & experiences.

My point was if you extend empathy to those who deem shopping for bread & milk wrong because they are "non-essentials" surely you can extend empathy to the OP?

You can't know whether everyone who was frightened had actually experienced anything either.

@RedToothBrush

I more meant that the original OP (that has upset this OP) was asking when will things go back to normal, rather than when will lockdown end.

Some people were predicting 12-18 months. Same as some were saying it was delusional to think any school groups would go back in September, let alone June and some fun peeps were predicting we'd only be allowed 200ms from our homes.

Does no-one remember all those posters saying 'this isn't a lockdown' whenever someone was struggling with it?

Does no-one remember all those posters saying 'this isn't a lockdown' whenever someone was struggling with it?

🙋🏼‍♀️

I sort of want to “admit” I was wrong just as an experiment. 😆

I realise a vast amount of people will disagree with me, but I do still think there are posters on here who would like to see people locked down for 18 months or longer and who would be happy for there to be a second wave, because there are people who enjoy extinguishing any life enjoyment in other people. There is a special enjoyment for some of these in looking for sparks of hope and optimism and gleefully trampling them down.
As for the posters who have said I don't have any trauma in my own life, you don't know me and you don't know anything about my life so please don't presume that you do.
I am well aware that many many people disagree and this is everybody's right but I do think it says something how many posters have been moved to tell me to "get a fucking grip", tell me that I must have compromised mental health or that I need psychological help. Oh and for the nth time, I have never said that the virus is going away. I really do not understand why so many people feel the need to state this when I don't think anyone is suggesting it is.

Off topic but some of my fave posts were the "I went to the supermarket & I couldn't believe how many other people were there". Or the "I went for my usual morning jog but the park was full of other people". Or I can't believe how long it's taken my to drive home, so much traffic on the roads".

The lack of self awareness was breathtaking!

@doolallyboo

I'm perfectly willing to cut people who are frightened and saying all sorts about how it's really bad some slack for those reasons.

@RedToothBrush well why not cut some slack to the OP then since those posters obviously frightened her? Or is it the usual Be Kind nonsense which is Be Kind to those with the same opinion as me?

OP, too, needs to be kind to those who have severe anxiety disorders who believed lockdown would be longer and who suffered with their deteriorating mental health. It works both ways.