To say I don't think schools will be back in September?

[Crockodoodle]

In fact I don't think they will be fully back until Easter 2021.
I'm posting this now because I've enjoyed looking back at my Feb posts (under a different name) that predicted what was going to happen and loads of people saying I was barmy/lost the plot etc.
I've read loads of posts this week celebrating that kids will be going back in September. Gosh I do hope they are right, mine are going stir crazy and haven't learnt a thing, however I think it's all fantasy and come September it will be the same as now, keyworkers and at best the odd year group. Please vote IABU all schools will be back in Sept or IANBU most will still be at home. Then come September I will update this post and see who was right.

@gallbladderpain

We are back part time in September and likely for the entire 2020/2021 year with the bulk being remote learning. I don't think you will be far wrong OP I can't see all schools being back full time before the Easter term next year !

The whole year! Seriously what's the reason for that?

I agree OP I didn’t think the schools would return FT in September

But having spoken with three different schools (DC & work) all are saying returning FT for all in September and open to all age groups

I suppose only time will tell 🤷🏻‍♀️

The models my work are using predict a second peak in the early autumn

Op is right. This does feel like February when some of us on here were warning this would happen and being mocked and derided.

You can choose to put your head in the sand and trust Boris's rhetoric over the measured words of epidemiologists.

Or you can hope for the best but also prepare for the strong possibility of an autumn and winter of chaotic schooling.

@NeverTwerkNaked

The models my work are using predict a second peak in the early autumn

Op is right. This does feel like February when some of us on here were warning this would happen and being mocked and derided.

You can choose to put your head in the sand and trust Boris's rhetoric over the measured words of epidemiologists.

Or you can hope for the best but also prepare for the strong possibility of an autumn and winter of chaotic schooling.

A second peak of what size? Same as last time? Worse? Based on what, exactly?

I have a feeling it won't be FT. Not unless some very clear data comes through from countries where all kids have returned without distancing, but frustratingly I don't see any clear signs that anyone is watching that data specifically despite how massively vital it could be

DS' primary school is getting all kids in over last 4 weeks of term by 3 days in, week off, 3 days in, week off, so I guess they might do that if it works out OK if distancing has to remain.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

To mitigate against the risk of a second wave !
And if that second wave or even just local outbreaks, constant self isolation amongst bubbles etc takes place as will highly likely happen then there's less risk of transmission through lesser transmission chains and the kids are also well used to the remote learning and it's not as disruptive week on week

Well, I think all kids (except shielding) will be back in September!! So far I've been wrong about everything though.

The recent GOSH study also suggests that in a sample of over 500 children 1 in 10 required intensive care treatment.....this has been protrayed as positive
I don't think a 1 in 10 odds of a child with covid ending up in picu is really very positive at all given that it's similar in adults !

They'll all be back.

[quote gallbladderpain]@TrustTheGeneGenie

To mitigate against the risk of a second wave !
And if that second wave or even just local outbreaks, constant self isolation amongst bubbles etc takes place as will highly likely happen then there's less risk of transmission through lesser transmission chains and the kids are also well used to the remote learning and it's not as disruptive week on week[/quote]
One school isn't going to make a difference is it? We don't even know whether kids play a big part so it might be entirely pointless!

Why will there be constant self isolation of bubbles? They'll only isolate on a positive test? How likely is that going to happen repeatedly?

Just because they're well used to online learning doesn't mean it's a good idea does it!

1 in 10 of 500 children in what state? Healthy? Asymptomatic but testing positive? Or hospitalised?

Gallbladder what is the sample? All children with Covid positive test?

I was also one of the ones who predicted this (under a different name). However I disagree that schools won’t be be back.

I’m a parent governor and our school fully expects all year groups will be back in September.

We are in the process of putting together a plan for worse cast scenario which would mean each class doing five days but split in two groups. half of the school doing 8am-12 and the second half doing 1-5. It’s not ideal but it will at least mean all children are in school each day. We are in the process of hiring additional cleaning staff who will clean the classrooms between the two groups.

An 8 hour teaching day for staff? When will they get their planning and admin tasks done?
Good luck with getting that past the staff and their unions!

All covid positive some asymptomatic (tested as a result of being in contact with a positive test) and half admitted to hospital and 8% admission to intensive care and no not all had underlying conditions as seems to be commonly suggested. I cannot link however the study has been published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health journal

@CallmeAngelina

An 8 hour teaching day for staff? When will they get their planning and admin tasks done? Good luck with getting that past the staff and their unions!

No not an 8 hour teaching day at all. Teachers will not be moving between their group.

@TrustTheGeneGenie
I don't think one school doing that is going to make a difference no
However it's not just the one school at all it's all the schools in the area pretty much and I mean wider area the guidance is published and the basis is a minimal amount of in school learning to be 40% and the rest to be remote with a remote learning curriculum published for the 2020/2021 year

I'm in n.ire by the way so could be different on mainland but I would imagine it won't differ too drastically .

All guidance documents are fully available online to the public as well

And just to add @CallmeAngelina the plan was fully discussed with all staff, they have been part of the planning.

You said, "half of the school doing 8am-12 and the second half doing 1-5."
I presumed you meant each teacher does half their class in the morning and the other half in the afternoon, two lots of 4 hours, making 8 hours.

Children's symptoms were generally mild. Some who tested positive had no symptoms, but about one in 10 in the study needed intensive care.

Doctors say the work is "reassuring", but more needs to be known about treatments for the seriously ill.

What did the study find?
Researchers led by a team at London's Great Ormond Street looked at 582 children aged from three days up to 18 years living in 25 European countries.

They all tested positive for Covid-19 during the initial peak of the pandemic in April and had been seen at one of 82 specialist healthcare centres for their symptoms.

A quarter had underlying health conditions.

Of the four deaths during the study (0.69%), none were in children under 10, and two of those who died had pre-existing health conditions.

More than half of the children studied were admitted to hospital, and 8% needed treatment in intensive care.

What symptoms did the children have?
Children commonly had a fever (65%), upper respiratory tract infection (54%), pneumonia (25%) and gastrointestinal symptoms (22%).

Some of the children (16%), most of whom were tested due to close contact with a known case, had no symptoms at all.

Just an extract from a BBC News article but the study is available to see and read online

No not an 8 hour teaching day at all. Teachers will not be moving between their group.

Do you mean teachers won’t be moving between their group and other groups?

Does that mean double the staff?

@CallmeAngelina

You said, "half of the school doing 8am-12 and the second half doing 1-5." I presumed you meant each teacher does half their class in the morning and the other half in the afternoon, two lots of 4 hours, making 8 hours.

We will have additional staff and some of our teachers who work part time are willing to work full time temporarily. It’s a financial nightmare but we’re determined to make it work whilst also taking into account the well-being of our teaching staff.