The beach down south/bbc news tonight

[Milssofadoesntreallyfit]

I'm mean, yes I want things back to normal BUT I am still concerned in case we get a spike again. I agree we all need to be careful BUT clearly all these people just thought F* it.
All we've put up with so far with lock down and it seems every one on the beach in question decided to piss it into the wind.

If I were the government I would think I couldn't trust people to use sense at all and put lockdown back in place until either a vaccination or until people realised that if they want lockdown relaxed then they need to prove they can be trusted to show a bit of caution.

Rant over.

“That’s the way to do it.”

@SockYarn

I've been trying to explain this to people but they just don't understand. They assume that if they haven't seen s huge rise two weeks after an event then it must mean that there was no effect.

And no, Hooves, it's you who don't understand. Cases aren't increasing AT ALL, exponentially or otherwise. Anywhere in the UK. All cases are decreasing and have been since late April. If all the "second spike covidiots" lot were right, you'd expect to see cases remaining stable at the very least rather than continuing a gradual, steady decline.

But that sort of thinking doesn't suit your doom and gloom attitude, does it?

Cases have increased in some areas of the UK.

Time will tell who is right.

When the VE day celebrations happened there was much frothing about.."there'll be a spike in 2 weeks just watch". When that didn't happen it changed to " it takes 3 weeks so just wait". When THAT didn't happen it got changed to "in another 2 weeks it'll happen mark my words". Well it STILL hasn't happened. When exactly do the "second wavers" believe it will happen after the last few days? Two weeks, 3, 5 or Christmas 2022? pick a number and stick with it. If it doesn't happen then accept you were wrong and bow out gracefully.

@trappedsincesundaymorn 100%!!

Time will tell who is right.

Yep @Hearhoovesthinkzebras what date are you picking today? Autumn 2030?

Meat packing factories @sockyarn, watch and wait.

SockYarn

This is from the Zoe app and study

New daily COVID-19 cases in the UK have stopped falling this week

June 25, 2020

The latestCOVIDSymptom Studyapp data suggests that the number of daily new cases of COVID-19 over the past two weeks has begun to stabilise.

‍According to these figures there are currently 2,341 daily new cases of COVID in the UK on average over the two weeks up to 20 June 2020 (excluding care homes). These figures were based on 14,422 swab tests from 7 to 20 June, including 56 positive swabs.

Daily new cases

For the past month the number of daily new cases has been falling week on week making this the first time the data has stopped falling. The data shows that the Midlands is now the region of England with the largest number with 716 daily new cases. This week's figures also point to the return of a slight North / South divide as the Midlands, North West and North East all now have higher numbers of daily new cases compared to the southern regions like the South West and London which have very low numbers.

As they say, for the past month numbers have been falling week on week and this is the first week the data has stopped falling. It's simply too early to think we've cracked it and it's all over. We just need to be cautious and sensible.

Yawn Yawn Yawn

I really don't know why I bother to engage with your relentless negativity, Hearhooves.

Just not interested. I suggest you find a hobby.

@SockYarn

Yawn Yawn Yawn

I really don't know why I bother to engage with your relentless negativity, Hearhooves.

Just not interested. I suggest you find a hobby.

Aah. Ok.

@SockYarn

Yawn Yawn Yawn

I really don't know why I bother to engage with your relentless negativity, Hearhooves.

Just not interested. I suggest you find a hobby.

Did you also just put your fingers in your ears and go "Ner ner" ?

May as well have done.

We just need to be cautious and sensible
Which is what people have been saying all along!
Going to the shops, out for a day trip - all good, as long as you're being cautious and sensible.

It's simply too early to think we've cracked it and it's all over.

It does seem that the virus doesn't transmit easily outside in sunlight. However, in America numbers are climbing again, to the extent that in Arizona hospitals are starting to say they can't cope.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-17/doctors-fear-arizona-virus-overload-as-hospital-cases-top-n-y

The problem in Arizona might be that, having been protected to an extent by the weather in the winter and spring, people are now staying inside because it is too hot.

If the reduction in infection rates is mainly due to the weather; and complacency means that cases haven't been reduced sufficiently; we will need more draconian measures in the autumn to bring the virus back under control.

Honestly Monkey, after 13 sodding weeks of people moaning about the ROOLZ and how sitting on a park bench eating a packet of Nik Naks is reckless behaviour which will wipe out all of Birmingham I think I've just had enough.

Some people will just NOT be happy with any lifting of restrictions because they want everyone locked up, always. Or adhering to their own specific writing of the ROOLZ which most definitely don't include anything as non-worthy as having fun.

Would i have gone to the beach yesterday? Probably not, but that's because we're all very fair skinned and it was so roasting we'd be like lobsters in 10 seconds flat. Do I give a shit that loads of other people did? Not at all. I don't think it's a covid risk at all.

Leaving litter and blocking roads is selfish and stupid. Anyway, I'm out because once that Zebra one appears on a thread it's endless posts from her about me me me me me until everyone else gives up the will to live.

@randomer more on what I was saying re knife crime

@SockYarn

Honestly Monkey, after 13 sodding weeks of people moaning about the ROOLZ and how sitting on a park bench eating a packet of Nik Naks is reckless behaviour which will wipe out all of Birmingham I think I've just had enough.

Some people will just NOT be happy with any lifting of restrictions because they want everyone locked up, always. Or adhering to their own specific writing of the ROOLZ which most definitely don't include anything as non-worthy as having fun.

Would i have gone to the beach yesterday? Probably not, but that's because we're all very fair skinned and it was so roasting we'd be like lobsters in 10 seconds flat. Do I give a shit that loads of other people did? Not at all. I don't think it's a covid risk at all.

Leaving litter and blocking roads is selfish and stupid. Anyway, I'm out because once that Zebra one appears on a thread it's endless posts from her about me me me me me until everyone else gives up the will to live.

Well i suppose if Birmingham had been wiped out they wouldn't have been going en masse to the beaches, so maybe more nik nak eating should have been done.......

A quick calculation, to get herd immunity without a vaccine, assuming also that catching COVID gives you immunity, means we need to accept roughly 67 million (population size) 75% (rough proportion needed for immunity) 1.4% (infection fatality rate) = 703,500 deaths.

Looking on the bright side, we're nearly 10% of the way there.

@RandomLondoner

A quick calculation, to get herd immunity without a vaccine, assuming also that catching COVID gives you immunity, means we need to accept roughly 67 million (population size) 75% (rough proportion needed for immunity) 1.4% (infection fatality rate) = 703,500 deaths.

Looking on the bright side, we're nearly 10% of the way there.

I'm sure I read somewhere it's about 70% of the population that needs to be infected for herb immunity with Covid-19. So that's 656,600 deaths.

I've just saved almost 47,000 lives. You're welcome.

Everyone can clap for me (and RandomLondoner, considering she supplied the calculation) on Monday.

People are stupid yes, but this is entirely, 100%, the fault of the conservative government.

Of course it 's this inconvenient Government's fault, so is the sweltering heat, last night's football results and my room fans and car AC packing up on the same day!

These people were stupid all by themselves, they needed no help!

@flamingochill

We need to pray for rain so people stay at home

It's not rain. It's just whenever it's a heat wave everyone descends to the beach or other public places. When it's just a normal weather day they don't.

Watching my daily dose of John Campbel on YouTube, the rise in rates in America and Europe is not surprising, the UK will be next. The UK infection rate has dropped but is flattening now because of relaxation. It has the potential to start rising again if we don't behave. The virus has not gone away, we have to learn to live sensibly with it and I'm not sure mass gatherings are considered to be sensible!

People seem to be confused about 'herd immunity'.

Herd immunity happens when a large number of people in a population have immunity to a disease, so the disease can't spread. This means that even people without immunity are protected.

To achieve herd immunity against measles, you have to vaccinate 90-95% of the population.

Letting a virus spread through a population is not 'developing herd immunity', it's just allowing people to catch the disease.

Before there was a vaccination against measles the disease would go through cycles of decline and fall, but it still always came back.

Thanks Squirtle, sadly innevitable when huge gangs of people congregate in a small space.

I don't think Hearhooves is saying anything particularly gloom laden?

Agree with merrymouse
Letting a disease with such a high mortality rate rampage through the country would be a terrible thing to do. There is also insufficient knowledge on progression of Covid, whether it may lie dormant only to flare up again, what happens to your health afterwards, even after mild cases etc. We know very little yet about this virus. So all the people on here so casually discharging the lives of others as they obviously seem invincible, may in fact be in for a shock if they catch it. It isn’t just a case of dead, or recovered, seemingly there are many people in the recovered category who have not recovered in any true sense.
Clearly we need to proceed with caution, and perhaps lockdown smaller pockets of the country as needed.

For those suggesting buying a deckchair and paddling pool are assuming that everyone has the privilege of a garden!

Additionally, we all sick and tired of ours paddling pools and gardens, tired of the same vista whatever that may be, desperate to see and hear other people, be by the sea, swimming in the sunshine, feel the sand between the toes kind of experience. I do not blame those that went yesterday, but I do blame the council for not planning anything to mitigate the obvious absolutely.

This is NOT going to be a one off, if we have a warm summer then every weekend is likely to be the same, as most people are not travelling this year. The 'minging' beaches are the best they are going to get (I do not agree with that statement at all by the way)

In my view, we do not close beaches for the summer (it wouldn't work anyway) but councils need to take some action and organise them so they are safe! It is not that hard, they only have to google Spanish beaches. I for one, would not feel comfortable going to a packed beach but I do totally understand that others have worked out their risks factors are tiny and the chances of dying smaller still and are not putting their summer on hold any longer (20 somethings especially) they would look at the death rate in their age bracket and figure it is fine! And quite frankly they already given up three months plus of their lives for the NHS and the shielding, so who can blame them now!

BUT, remember to take home your litter and USE the toilet facilities >>>

I was also thinking I wonder if this is going to be the summer of all summers for illegal raves, parties and such like given the nightclubs are closed, maybe the beaches are going to be the least of our worries (Speaking from own experience at illegal raves, they are impossible to police and extremely dangerous) The combination of a locked down youth and a hot summer could be absolutely lethal.