[quote ThatLibraryMiss]@Hearhoovesthinkzebras
No, that's across the country. What is my risk based on where I live? In some places it will be lower than 1:1600. In others it will be higher. And 1:1600 doesn't sound that great to me.
Oh dear, HearHooves, I’m so sorry that you haven’t been able to find the information you need to make a good risk assessment.
IIRC you live in London. It’s impossible to be specific without knowing which borough but according to [[https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-uks-current-covid-19-hotspots-and-how-your-area-compares-11999237
this source]] rates in Greater London varied from about 2.9 per 100,000 people to 0.5 per 100,000 people a couple of weeks ago. Of course, I expect you to think they’ve spiked because of the protests, but given that the total number of cases is still going down I think that’s unlikely. However, even if you multiply them by 10 that’s a maximum of 29 people per 100,000, which is 0.029% or one person in 3,448 if I've got the figures the right way round.
The Lancet suggest a baseline risk of an infected person passing it on of 10%. This is reduced to about 0.9% if they’re 2m apart, or 1.8% if they’re only 1m apart [[https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1271536558517161985
(source)]]. So assuming someone’s only 1m from you, your risk of them having CV-19 and transmitting it to you is 1.8% of 0.029%, which is 0.000522%. I can’t recall seeing how long The Lancet reckons you need to be in contact with an infected person for that level of risk. Obviously it’s much higher if you’re inside for 15 minutes than if you walk past someone outside.
I hope this helps you to make an informed decision.
BTW pigeon999’s link to the ONS appears to show total cases since the start of the outbreak NOT current ones.
Waiting for you to tell me why it's not fair and my figures don't help...[/quote]
Sadly, that article is from 3rd June and looks at data "from recent weeks" so is currently at least two weeks out of date. Of course things might be much better than then, but there's no way of knowing is there?
If we had track and trace in place data would be current and accurate. That's what's needed to make a risk assessment, otherwise there's no choice but to listen to the scientists who have access to the best data. They are saying stay inside so I have to wonder what they know that we don't.