To feel like we are just existing now

[Ghostlyglow]

In a miserable, joyless world of queues and masks. A couple of friends have lost their jobs this week. Where are we going with this?When will it end?

sad to see so many on here feeling so low though i can understand why, but i think there is hope, lets try be optomistic and nature is always there for everyone, its the one thing that will never let us down, its appreciating the little things the free beautiful things in life that we often take for granted, we will get through this i am sure of that but yes at the moment it feels like we wont, nothing ever stays the same and this time next year will be much different.. in a positive way, this is a blip in the road and things could be much worse. it could have been a pandemic that wiped out millions of us like the 1918 one, or a world nuclear war, but the more experts are learning about this virus the more they are able to defeat it and help the sickest people, positive positive thinking, things are changing all the time even if it doesnt feel that way

Moody Monday
Nowhere did I read that you had to have only an hour exercise
You couldrive for exercise and go out more than once a day
I think I’m right in saying you could visit vulnerable people

I hope you haven’t made yourself more miserable by misinterpreting the rules.

Thomasina, so sorry to hear tht
Yet you sound a lovely positive person

It’s weird how it attacks some and not others
I hope things are on an even keel now and you’re getting to enjoy your grandchildren

Just to revisit the criticisms of Neil Ferguson - who was part of the Imperial team whose foot-and-mouth outbreak modeling resulted in the slaughter of 7.7 million animals, and the devastation of the rural economy. The modeling was later condemned as 'not fit for purpose' (among many eminent criticisms of the modeling).

A recent Private Eye discusses the above, and quotes a former advisor to the government during the foot-and-mouth crisis, commenting on Imperial's Covid modeling: 'Ferguson and his fellow modellers have very little risk of reputational damage. They will take the credit for persuading the government to implement these ruinous control strategies, just as they did with FMD. Later analysis showed that their predictions were never going to happen... But the inquiry brushed over it - it was all over by then. Similarly, they cannot lose here - the 500,000 they predicted to die of Covid will never die - but they will take the credit for implementing the controls and preventing their deaths.'

The lack of analysis or reference to Imperial's track record (their incorrect predictions for bird flu, swine flu FM etc) has been the most frightening thing about the management of this pandemic, from my perspective. It's like history doesn't exist. Why has Imperial been allowed to exercise such power?

@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-up-to-80-of-covid-19-patients-have-no-symptoms-health-secretary-says-12004987

[quote tobee]@Hearhoovesthinkzebras

www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-up-to-80-of-covid-19-patients-have-no-symptoms-health-secretary-says-12004987[/quote]
Reading about this study the 80% is based on people exhibiting no symptoms on the day that they were tested.

Prof Sarah Walker, from the Nuffield Department of Medicine at the University of Oxford, told reporters that this may be because people have recovered from symptoms by the time they are tested.

Speaking at a media briefing, she said: "We can detect the virus before people know, or it may be three or four days before, they had a cough but by the time they had a test the cough was gone.

They might have had symptoms before the test or developed them after. Every other study is maintaing the figure of around 40% asymptomatic.

There's also this:-

www.google.com/amp/s/www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-asymptomatic-in-over-80-per-cent-of-cases-cruise-ship-study-finds/amp/

And this from the end of April which has a little explainer:-

www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/mail-today/story/coronavirus-what-does-80-per-cent-asymptomatic-cases-mean-1669588-2020-04-22

I mean I've had a pay cut but still working full time. DP started his new (massive promo) in lockdown. That was v hard for him.

I'm still kind of ok with it for now - I love not having my hideous commute and seeing him all day. But, I do miss my friends.

If it saves lives though we're very lucky and are ok for it to continue for a while. Although I feel I may become depressed if we have to skip summer and go straight back into winter.

On the plus side my 3m and 6m reviews (started new job in jan) were cancelled so o guess it's good for my job.

Although I don't have kids yet so that is obv a big difference

I agree. This whole situation has been a complete and utter shitshow.

Those in charge have made a mockery out of this country and its citizens.

Waiting for a vaccine isn't feasible, keeping us all cooped up indoors isn't feasible, kids not receiving an education for the best part of 3 months (and counting) isn't feasible.

Everyone seems to have lost the ability of using their brain and applying common sense.

The high street will be decimated because of the stringent rules they're bringing in. People will not want to queue up outside a shop that's using a one in one out policy, in the pissing rain/freezing cold, to have members of staff breathing down their neck and telling them that they have to buy something they've picked up.
They won't even attempt it. Online shopping will become the norm and bye bye shopping centres/high streets + thousands and thousands of jobs.

The upcoming dip in the economy is frightening to think about.
Rishi wants us spending money to get the economy going, but the shops won't relax the ridiculous rules that have been put in place which make shopping the most unenjoyable experience possible. It's clear that they're different from store to store seeing how relaxed certain supermarkets are compared to others.
I'm trying to imagine paying to eat out and having to sit in a booth made by Perspex screens. Nope. Used to spend a fortune on eating out. No more.

I wonder if those who petitioned at the very beginning of this to 'CLOSE OUR SCHOOLS' and 'LOCK US DOWN NOW!!!' are still agreeing with their original opinion?
I thought it was ridiculous then, the loss of our rights and freedoms being willingly given up; in fact, people petitioning for them to be taken away and here we are, 3 months later, in the exact same position.

I wonder if those who petitioned at the very beginning of this to 'CLOSE OUR SCHOOLS' and 'LOCK US DOWN NOW!!!' are still agreeing with their original opinion?

I'd say they aren't, but there is no way they will admit to it, as they were too vocal in the beginning.

Reality is starting to kick in now with redundancies and it's just the start, when furlough ends it's going to be a redundancy free for all.

There have been a couple of threads on here where the person has been made redundant and is in shock, because they "didn't see it coming". It's awful it's happened to them, but come on, did they really not see what was going to happen?

Too many have and are burying their heads in the sand about how damaging it has been. The end result of the lockdown will be far worse than the virus. Has it been worth it? My own opinion is, no it really hasn't.

I know we can exercise, but I hate exercising!

I know we can drive to somewhere outside, but everything is closed and it is pouring down!

I know we can see people now in our garden, but it has felt weird and stilted with the 2m distance, no hugging and no real connection. I have ended my garden meetings because of the rain!

So no, this is nothing like normal life. Not even approaching it. The things I love to do, going to the theatre, live music, drinks with friends, ballets, travelling overseas, eating out and most of all hugging my dear old mum. Those things have gone. Just like. Overnight. Nothing about the new restrictions help me at all. I hate golf, fishing and tennis and could not care less about unlimited exercise. I am sure there are many millions who feel the same. The joy of life has gone for now.

Moondust001 - Well said.

sudoku Brazil unfortunately have not even peaked yet, so it is a little premature to compare any country.

Indeed we have not even been through the second wave yet, so any kind of comparison is premature.

Indeed we have not even been through the second wave yet,

There might not even be one. There was meant to be one after VE Day, didn't happen. Now there will be one after last weekends protests. I guess if there are more this weekend (who knows, I've not read or watched any news this week thank god!) that'll be the second wave.

I'm anxious about the future.
I'm angry at the govt for acting slow with lock down, track n trace and not putting down laws against protesting now.
Stay strong everyone. Think we are going to be doing this for a long time - try and enjoy the summer as lockdown measures during the winter will be extremely challenging.

phil Look at the modelling. The second wave is due in mid December. I don't think anyone really imagines that the vaccine will be up and ready with all 66 million people vaccinated by December.

I personally didn't expect a second wave after VE, nothing suggested this in the modelling. I think you are mixing up infection spikes with second waves.
There may well be many little infection spikes, but the second wave is not the same. Hopefully with track and trace in place and working properly, those that need to shield already doing so and some better treatments when people are ill we might have a better second wave, but CoVid has not gone. Not by a long chalk in Whitty's words. What makes you think it is over?

I'm getting fucked off with this virus being called a bad cold.
Drs.
4 people I know all 50 or under. Fit. No pre existing medical concerns. 8 to 10 weeks after getting this virus (Only 1 hospitalised on oxygen not ventilated) all unable to use their stairs, 2 are forced to use a commode with no way of gettingvuo their stairs. One was a fitness instructor before this. 3 now bring tested for long term damage to other non respiratory organs such asuver and kidneys. All caused by Covid, all now clear of Covid bit living with the long-term effects.

It's not a cold.

The bottom of my post didn't come out.

I also wanted to say yo those of you suffering with your mental health that I've found some great comfort recently from the Samaritans.
Please do call them if your feeling desperate.
The First time I called I felt silly and didn't knows what to say but they just stayed on the phone.

I've called a few times. My problems are far from resolved but it has helped in my bleakest moments.

I think you are mixing up infection spikes with second waves.

I'm not mixing anything.

If by modelling you are talking about what came from Imperial, the source code of the software Ferguson and co wrote used for the modelling (or a derivative of it split into several source files) has been heavily peer reviewed by others and found to be flawed. Multiple runs of the model gave differing results each time, with death figures varying by up to 80,000 in a run.

He's got form for getting his modelling way out, swine flu modelling said global deaths 4 million, actual 18,500. Bird flu modelling up to 200 million global deaths, actual over 6 years 282 people.

If his is the model you are looking at, how convinced are you?

phil most modelling points to a December second wave, not just imperial. You seem doubtful even though the modelling for the first wave was pretty spot on in terms of actual timing. The death rate can never be accurately measured because it can not take into consideration restrictions different countries will take, but the timing, it was totally spot on.
So yes we are planning for a December wave both professionally and domestically. I think most people I know are. Including the NHS.

We were only allowed out for exercise for up to one hour to begin with. Why are people saying that wasn't the case? It was one of the first rules to be relaxed iirc.
Obviously if you can exercise indoors you could do it for as long as you want.
I feel as though people are changing what happened after the fact.

You seem doubtful even though the modelling for the first wave was pretty spot on in terms of actual timing.

Not doubtful, not anything to be honest apart from not at all concerned, if it happens it happens.

My only concern from the beginning of all of this was the economic impact, which is grim. If they decide to try and lockdown again (they can't afford to), the country is even more screwed than it is now.

We were only allowed out for exercise for up to one hour to begin with. Why are people saying that wasn't the case?

Because it wasn't, we were only allowed out once, but no time limit was put in it.

This hour came from an interview Gove had with Andrew Marr where he said:

‘But I would have thought that for most a walk of up to an hour, or a run of 30 minutes, or a cycle ride between that, depending on their level of fitness, is appropriate.’

So it wasn't all we were allowed.