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Original poster

Second wave brigade

147 replies

imoment · 19/05/2020 14:32

Why are so many amendment on a second wave? If we keep to the rules there will be no second wave! It's an excuse to be lapse with the rules!

OP posts:
Sugarplumfairy65 · 19/05/2020 14:36

Its already started in France. 70 new cases linked to children going back to school

userabcname · 19/05/2020 14:37

I thought a second wave was inevitable? As restrictions lift, infections rise? And we want that to happen over summer, not during flu season, to help keep pressure off the NHS. That was my understanding of the situation anyway.

pigsDOfly · 19/05/2020 14:40

As people start mixing in work places, on public transport and so on then it's likely they'll be a rise in infections.

People might very well be 'sticking to the rules' but as the rules have changed and allow for greater intermingling the virus will have a greater chance to spread again.

peoplepleaser1 · 19/05/2020 14:49

As restrictions lift, people return to work and schools reopen there will be some increase in infection rate and we do have to accept that without becoming hysterical.

As for a second wave- I'm not sure as at what point does an inevitable increase in infections become a 'wave'?

SoupDragon · 19/05/2020 14:51

So you think it's just going to vanish then? Of course there's going to be a second wave.

Madvixen · 19/05/2020 14:53

Without mass immunity to the illness, it is inevitable that there will be more infections. We are already seeing second waves in countries that had far more stringent restrictions than we did (eg Singapore). The current restrictions won't prevent a second influx of infections but may decrease the R number to avoid a 'wave' effect

YouTheCat · 19/05/2020 14:54

Lots of people haven't stuck to the rules.

I have done some research into past pandemics and a second wave seems highly probable.

I don't believe I'm part of a 'brigade'. Hmm I'm just looking at statistics and facts.

KatieB55 · 19/05/2020 15:03

Wuhan is testing everyone & another chinese city has been locked down. Second wave inevitable.

vanillandhoney · 19/05/2020 15:05

A second wave is inevitable. Lockdown and social distancing was never designed to get rid of the virus - it was put in place to ease the pressure on the NHS.

GoldenOmber · 19/05/2020 15:09

Second waves are not an inevitable law of nature. Otherwise we wouldn't be bothering to put test and trace infrastructure in place. That's the whole point of putting policies like that in place, to prevent cases rising exponentially again (which is what another wave would be).

Hingeandbracket · 19/05/2020 15:09

OP, not 100% sure what you are getting at as your post seems to have been butchered by autocorrect.

GoldenOmber · 19/05/2020 15:14

In other words: if you just let new diseases make their own way through the population, then you usually end up with new waves of them because immunity wanes, new people are born without it and so on. Plague used to pass through in waves every few decades.

What we did not have in most of the past was:

  • technology to put in place widespread testing and contact tracing
  • technology to create and mass produce vaccines

We have those things now. That means we are in a far better position when it comes to controlling the spread of the disease. It doesn't of course guarantee that there will not be a second wave. But we can't point at the 1918 flu pandemic and say "the second wave was worse there, so that's what will happen here" like there's a script the virus is following.

GrimmsFairytales · 19/05/2020 15:16

I don't believe I'm part of a 'brigade'. Hmm I'm just looking at statistics and facts.

What a novel idea Grin

Original poster
imoment · 19/05/2020 15:17

Second waves are not an inevitable law of nature. Otherwise we wouldn't be bothering to put test and trace infrastructure in place. That's the whole point of putting policies like that in place, to prevent cases rising exponentially again (which is what another wave would be).

This nails it thanks

OP posts:
MarieIVanArkleStinks · 19/05/2020 15:18

Try telling that to Germaine Greer.

PowerslidePanda · 19/05/2020 15:20

I thought a second wave was inevitable? As restrictions lift, infections rise? And we want that to happen over summer, not during flu season, to help keep pressure off the NHS

I really don't get how a second wave over the summer would do anything to prevent another wave during flu season!

minisoksmakehardwork · 19/05/2020 15:21

I don't necessarily think there will be a second massive increase (wave), but I do think we will get lots of ripples where the numbers rise as lockdown is eased.

vanillandhoney · 19/05/2020 15:21

I really don't get how a second wave over the summer would do anything to prevent another wave during flu season!

Isn't it to try and time it to get the second wave to hit in the summer so when flu season hits, they're just dealing with flu and not flu plus corona?

GrimmsFairytales · 19/05/2020 15:24

when flu season hits, they're just dealing with flu and not flu plus corona?

Unfortunately I think this winter we'll be dealing with both, no matter what happens in the summer.

endofthelinefinally · 19/05/2020 15:25

Of course there will be a second wave. I don't think that was ever in doubt. If you listen to or read anything from WHO or Public Health England, their concerns are that we still aren't on track to have adequate test and trace in place to relax the current lock down as early as planned.
There is also likely to be another spike during the winter, exacerbated by a probable No Deal Brexit and accompanying shortages of food and medicines.
We haven't even thought about the flu vaccination programme and how we are going to manage that.

vanillandhoney · 19/05/2020 15:26

Unfortunately I think this winter we'll be dealing with both, no matter what happens in the summer.

Oh, I agree.

clockworklime · 19/05/2020 15:28

There has to be a second wave. Or third wave. Or fourth.Until immunity has built up.

The virus is not going away, and immunity (natural/Vaccine) is our only hope of a return to normalcy.

AlternativePerspective · 19/05/2020 15:28

There haven’t been any second waves. There has been a rise in infections in some parts,but nothing compared to how it has been.

A rise in infections is inevitable,and we will likely never get rid of COVID, but a rise does not equal a wave.

The term “second wave”sounds very dramatic and designed to create fear.

IcedPurple · 19/05/2020 15:29

Its already started in France. 70 new cases linked to children going back to school

70 new cases out of tens of thousands of students attending school hardly amounts to a 'wave'.

Of course there will be a rise in cases once restrictions are relaxed. That's not really in doubt. The aim is to keep this rise under control, not panic when it happens.

Sunshinegirl82 · 19/05/2020 15:29

If everything works as it should there will be no second wave. You use lockdown to get the numbers low, test, track and trace every new case and contain the outbreak that way as the lockdown eases. R level below 1 means No exponential growth, no second wave.

70 cases in a country with a population the size of France is pretty insignificant and should be easily controlled via track and trace.

If you start to see exponential growth again you lockdown again quickly.