Second wave brigade

[imoment]

Why are so many amendment on a second wave? If we keep to the rules there will be no second wave! It's an excuse to be lapse with the rules!

@Givenupno

www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091

I think how worrying it is for you depends on your circumstances, if you have an underlying condition it is a pretty scary prospect. I agree with that. Although IME it’s those who don’t have underlying conditions who seem to be more worried about it.Those who do have likely already faced and come through difficult times in the past and as such possibly take a more stoic approach.

This time last year I was in ICU having had a cardiac crash.Two weeks later I had a cardiac arrest. I had three surgeries and still I will need a heart transplant, but I am fortunate enough that last year’s interventions put me in a better place so I’m currently well enough not to be on the list.

I am doing everything in my power to not catch the virus. I haven’t been out, and I haven’t seen my parents or partner since the beginning of March. But I need to find a job,and so at some point I am going to have to get out there.

And given what I’ve been through I am very much of the view that we all have to die of something. That of course doesn’t mean we want to die of this,(before someone accuses me of wanting people dead) but you can’t live in fear forever.You just can’t. That is just as detrimental to your health.

And again,most people do not die.

But the press,and social media have created this notion that catching COVID means dying.For most,it doesn’t.It’s unpleasant and you wouldn’t wish it on anyone, but when we look back at this people will look back and say “Well, I had it and it was bloody awful,” in the same way we e.g.look back at the swine flu epidemic...

I still don't understand how people think we can "get the second wave out of the way before autumn" - as if you only get two waves and can pick when you have them. As others have pointed out you can have multiple waves - infinite amounts of waves in theory. We could easily have a wave in summer as we go out and about and then another wave in winter when it's flu season.

Sunshine, I've now seen google shows there's a vaccine to bovine betacoronavirus. Thank you.

fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-cows/

Bearing in mind that the illness in the vast majority of cases in children is mild or with no symptons why the big ? on the number of new cases in French children.

Its rather like stating that someone in school has a bad cold and could pass it onto to granny who is living with underlying health conditions.

*Spanish flu came in 3 waves. March 1918, October 1918 and then January 1919.

Black death had around 18 waves over the space of about 10 years.*

Medical knowledge was close to nonexistent during the 13th and 14th centuries. Understanding of viruses was also pretty elementary at the time of the Spanish Flu - no microscope powerful enough to see a virus existed until the 1940s - and technology much more primitive too. With modern medicine and technology we are now able to control the spread of disease in a way which was impossible even a relatively short time ago.

Sunshine, I did have to smile that most of the links I quickly looked at seemed to involve 'DO NOT TAKE THIS CATTLE VACCINE'. I sadly recalled the story from the US after President Trump advocated taking chloroquine that a couple had taken aquarium chloroquine treatment for poorly fish and I think one person unfortunately died.

We won’t be locking down again if there isn’t second wave, the economic devastation from the first will put pay to that

I don't see it as a second wave but a resurgence of the current wave.

If everyone goes back to school and work, we are where we were at the end of March in terms of active cases...so those active cases will spread through work and schools.

How can it possibly be otherwise?

An epidemic doesn't have a mind of it's own, or magical properties. The virus is spread from person to person. If it is as common in the community as it was at the end of March it will flourish again.

The aim isn't to eliminate it, but to control it so it doesn't overwhelm the NHS.

What do you mean by "amendment" here, OP?

Its rather like stating that someone in school has a bad cold and could pass it onto to granny who is living with underlying health conditions.

Well yes. But Granny is a lot less likely to die from a bad cold!

@Zilla1

I think this article is quite a decent explanation/suggestion for why we don’t yet have a coronavirus vaccine for humans.

www.city-journal.org/covid-19-our-attitude-toward-vaccines

there has been reoccurrence in S Korea. China, Japan amongst other places -Scientists, Virologist have stated that there are doubts about whether having coronavirus gives you long term immunity ditto immunisation because previous version of Sars showed evidence that having the disease showed a weakening of immune response in the blood
Hence its not if, I am afraid, its when
I would say that it has been talked about for a long time that at some stage there would be a viral outbreak - a pandemic. We have got this idea that we are a more technological advanced world & can find solutions to everything -

there has been reoccurrence in S Korea. China, Japan amongst other places

Most if not all of these 'reoccurrences' have been attributed to faulty testing or persistent infections rather than an individual contracting Covid on two separate occasions.

Second outbreaks sometimes happen, it's just a waiting game, so plans and rules have to be seriously considered.

We won't be given an amendment to anything, we haven't been given any notice of the second wave.
I doubt we will be, it will just happen in about a months time. Once some kids and work have gone back and caught the next wave.

There is no brigade.

Using the word brigade unless you're talking about a real organised group working together for a common purpose will always make you completely unreasonable in every way.

My electrician is currently adding electric to hospital single rooms to make them into 2/3 bed rooms. He was telling us about this yesterday. The government is clearly expecting a second wave.

With modern medicine and technology we are now able to control the spread of disease in a way which was impossible even a relatively short time ago.

@IcedPurple with that in mind why the decision to lockdown ? Is it because we don't currently have the medicine or technology to prevent the spread or we dont have enough of it ?

I’m not sure calling people a “brigade” is fair. I do think there is a spectrum of responses to the situation. Within that there are some people who need the assurance of strict controls to make them feel safe for themselves, their family and society.

Some people take that too far and their need for control is unhealthy and abusive. A crisis is the perfect opportunity for some people to impose control on others. That’s why DA is a major issue and it’s not going to be just about male abuse.

They might not admit it to themselves but the need for control is driving some posters scaremongering and demands for stronger measures and policing. I recognise myself as being on the margins of this end of the spectrum. Even though I know I want this over and for the disease to be eradicated. I get frustrated and angry at the people taking the piss with rules and I have to check myself.

But a few people should certainly consider their obsession and selectiveness with data and stats and news stories. I suspect their need for control over others goes beyond a pandemic response.

There was always going to be a second wave. Lockdown was about slowing it down until the summer when the NHS could cope more

We had insufficient testing and an underdeveloped contact tracing programme accordingly we couldn’t keep on top of the number of cases and had to lockdown to slow the spread.

Countries like South Korea and Taiwan who learned their lesson from the impact of SARS were much better prepared and so managed the situation much better.

If we can get it together to emulate the South Korean model there won’t be a second wave. There will be small, localised outbreaks managed by test, track and trace.

Sunshine, thank you, that's interesting. I think economics and industry factors are absolutely key and those will be different for COVID than for SARS/MERS though I expect there was some money behind SARS and MERS - South Korea and Saudi Arabia have significant public health resources.

The reason I'm not certain there will be a vaccine for COVID is that it depends on the nature of the virus as well as economics. To illustrate with HIV - It's a different virus but I think all the economics would stack up for a vaccine against HIV but there are some fundamental aspects of that retrovirus that have prevented an effective vaccine. I know a conspiracy theorist would say 'big pharma' makes too much profit from HIV treatments but my feeling is that Western consumer demand for a vaccine for 'reduced-risk sex' and the funding and demand from charity/developmental/developing nations own healthcare funding (I'm sorry that all sounds patronising) would 'stack up' the economics from any of the pharmaceutical firms (that don't earn from HIV treatments to make it financially viable).

I hope my scepticism is ill-founded and COVID vaccine(s) are straightforward and quick but I'd be more confident if we had a data point from one successful human corona virus vaccine. It's that scepticism that makes my skin itch when I hear 'of course there'll be a vaccine' (Not that I'm saying you said that). I'd seen there was no vaccine for FIP though I missed that there was a bovine corona virus vaccine.