Second wave brigade

[imoment]

Why are so many amendment on a second wave? If we keep to the rules there will be no second wave! It's an excuse to be lapse with the rules!

How are the vaccines for the other strains of Covid working out?

Covid is a disease. It doesn't have 'strains'. What are you referring to exactly?

There will be a second wave because people can't keep to the fucking rules can they, I've seen so many so it's a fact!

So we need a process exactly like South Korea where we contact trace test and monitor

Not wanting to be accused of being a dementor as i'm not trying to be negative, but is tracking and tracing likely to be successful and widespread in England?

First of all, the cases in France linked to schools are in what they call 'green' zones. Schools where there are higher rate of cases have not opened yet. Schools have opened for some pupils, in some regions within the 'green' zones, where they have fewer cases. They have seen a raise of cases within those 'zones' as a consequence of schools opening. In the UK, if the government had their way, all state schools would open for yr, 1 and 6, and y10 and y12. That's even within regions or cities that are 'hot spots' already.

France has got in place much more stringent rules for face covering, using public transport only to go to work (with papers signed every day by employer). They also have in place a track/trace/isolate strategy, which sorry to announce, but in this country is still in its infancy and will not be ready in time for schools opening. So my guess it will be much worst here.

Nobody in their right mind would celebrate a second wave, but some people are a bit more realistic than others. There will be more local outbreaks, that's for sure. How well will they be managed? my guess, is, a bit shitly.

There will be a second wave because people can't keep to the fucking rules can they, I've seen so many so it's a fact!

That's so wrong. The "rules" are to return to work if you can. If there is going to be a second wave, it'll happen if we stick to the rules or not.

Of course it will start again. It's only reduced because we are staying home. Once we are out again it will restart. No cure has been found!

JV Tam reassured us last night on the BBC that we are adequately preparing for the second wave. Sweden has said that they are expecting a second wave, but hope to minimise it. So do other countries. So 'experts' think it's a possibility. Or as said, it's actually going to be the third wave.

We can't stay in full lock down and I've always thought that it's individual choice on the part of the 65+, whether they isolate etc.

However, those of us who live in areas which have been hard hit and have a good amount of overseas tourism, have a right to be concerned about the starting of travel and football. Especially those of us whose Northern councils are underfunded as it is, have really, high unemployment, poor air quality and deprivation. A second wave would hit us hard in every way. We need forward planning.

@GoldenOmber, what we also didn't have in the past was mass global travel.

and here are no rules. There are 'guidelines' in this country. That's one of the reasons why it's gone all wrong.

“ Covid is a disease. It doesn't have 'strains'. What are you referring to exactly?”

SARS specifically, where we were told there would be a vaccine years ago, and despite being ranked down since it effectively self eradicated (for now) they are still trying and failing to find a vaccine.

www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616

Well, obviously the hope is that there will be a vaccine. But if there isn’t there is likely to be improvement in treatment meaning that less people will die.

Let’s look at e.g.HIV.Different virus but still one where in the 80’s when it first emerged experts said that they had isolated the virus and at least they now knew what they were working with.

They have never been able to create a vaccine. But they have been able to create incredibly effective treatments which mean that HIV is no longer the death sentence it was.

And people do need to bear in mind that even though the press is talking up the deaths, the vast,vast majority of people do not die.

It goes without saying that if you have a serious health condition then you will be more likely to encounter significant complications if you catch the virus and as such might be more anxious about it. I do and I have been told that if I do catch it I will unlikely survive. But I have to be responsible for my own health. And worrying about it isn’t going to change anything. And me demanding the world stay in lockdown is going to have far more of a detrimental impact on society than it is on me.

Question for those who think a second wave is inevitable. What timeframe are we looking at? Weeks or months?

Spanish flu came in 3 waves. March 1918, October 1918 and then January 1919.

Black death had around 18 waves over the space of about 10 years.

SARS specifically, where we were told there would be a vaccine years ago, and despite being ranked down since it effectively self eradicated (for now) they are still trying and failing to find a vaccine.

SARS isn't a 'strain' of Covid. It's a closely related coronavirus. And like I said above, they suspended the work on the SARS vaccine because it was no longer needed. Developing a vaccine is very expensive and there would be little reason to pursue it for a disease which had mostly burned itself out.

The "rules" are to return to work if you can.

Except for specific prohibited industries, the rules never stopped you going to work. It was "work from home if you can". Recent "relaxations" have basically been just a reminder of the original rules.

I think there will be a second wave and am gearing up for a shit summer holidays. I really hope I'm wrong though.

Strains of the virus www.news-medical.net/news/20200422/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-strains.aspx

I think how worrying it is for you depends on your circumstances, if you have an underlying condition it is a pretty scary prospect.

Iced, PMSL at 'chances are it will happen' though that's better than the PPs 'of course'. Corona viruses have been recognised as adversely affecting a range of companion mammals and 'commercial' animals since 1930s with a grand total of successful vaccines = ... 0.

I've seen the positive statements from research scientists. I've also worked in fields where funding and press attention tends to attract such positive statements by research groups encouraged by university and corporate PR teams and by scientists own desire to be seen or heard on TV/radio/in the press.

Hingeandbracket

OP, not 100% sure what you are getting at as your post seems to have been butchered by autocorrect.

your joking right?! Butchered! What, one word! Jesus, can't you work out what she's saying because one word is messed up 😂

Iced, PMSL at 'chances are it will happen'

Glad I could bring some laughter into your life and I hope you wiped the seat.

@Zilla1

But there are coronavirus vaccines for animals? We have them for cows and chickens at least.

SARS isn't a 'strain' of Covid. It's a closely related coronavirus. And like I said above, they suspended the work on the SARS vaccine because it was no longer needed.

Genuinely interested. Can you link to proof of this? Everything I have read says work is still ongoing they just haven’t ever cracked it

deydododatdodontdeydo

There will be a second wave because people can't keep to the fucking rules can they, I've seen so many so it's a fact!

That's so wrong. The "rules" are to return to work if you can. If there is going to be a second wave, it'll happen if we stick to the rules or no

that so wrong too..... So basically if we stick to the rules or not it will happen, so why are there any rules at all then, we may as well just live how we lived before... Because it will happen anyway, why were the rules put there then?

I thought a second wave was inevitable in the autumn/winter. Even with a flu vaccine there are always cases of flu each year. I thought test and trace will just minimise it and hopefully mean we don't have to lock down again. Because realistically we can't keep locking down for ever.

Sunshine, as with everything I'm happy to be wrong (I usually am) and to learn but my understanding was there wasn't in cows only chickens. My victims (patients) are human and I'm not a veterinarian or a farmer so grateful to be corrected if there is.

The only way you can avoid a second wave is with hardcore track and trace on a low baseline level of cases.

If lockdown ends to early, say if there are 2000 cases of COVID in the population, it will be very hard to do track and trace because each of those 2000 people may be out and about infecting many others before they are tested, and then those others infect people before they are contacted to let them know that they’re at risk. Whereas if you have 100 cases left you’ve got a pretty good chance of identifying everyone they’ve come into contact with quickly before exponential growth restarts.

I lack faith in the British government to implement a good track and trace system either way though: for it to work you’d need to do extensive random testing as well as testing every single person with any symptoms, you’d need significant invasion of privacy to identify where positive cases had been, and you’d need a population who were willing to quarantine if they’d been in contact with a case. I just don’t think we can execute it the way Korea or Singapore did, so I think a second wave is likely.