Second wave brigade

[imoment]

Why are so many amendment on a second wave? If we keep to the rules there will be no second wave! It's an excuse to be lapse with the rules!

Jesus, it’s the dementors united.

Second wave is definitely coming - how could it not be?

Well, thus far it hasn't in any of the countries which have relaxed their lockdowns. A small rise in cases or a localised hot-spot does not a 'wave' make.

So what - that's it now? No need for vaccines then right?

• Well, thus far it hasn't in any of the countries which have relaxed their lockdowns. A small rise in cases or a localised hot-spot does not a 'wave' make.”

Will be interesting to read that back in December

So what - that's it now? No need for vaccines then right?

Eh? Obviously a vaccine and/or other forms of treatment are needed.

But, however disappointing it may be for some, none of the countries which have relaxed restrictions have experienced another 'wave'. No reason to believe Britain would be an exception.

I think it's inevitable. Not because I'm a doomsayer, but becuase that's the normal pattern for pandemics. This virus would be kind of unique if there wasn't.

Will be interesting to read that back in December

Maybe not all that interesting, assuming people can understand the meaning of the words 'thus far'.

Alternative 'There needs to be a serious press enquiry after this. The way the media have behaved is disgraceful, they’re largely responsible for the amount of panic'

I've a feeling government policy would win the fight with the media about who is responsible for any panic.

That said, I think I also missed any pre-COVID golden age when the UK press didn't report disgracefully. Every single front page news story I had an inside view of was eye-wateringly mis-reported and not just by red tops but by the Times and Guardian.

*Eh? Obviously a vaccine and/or other forms of treatment are needed.

But, however disappointing it may be for some, none of the countries which have relaxed restrictions have experienced another 'wave'. No reason to believe Britain would be an exception.*

Eh yourself. Please explain how people who were not exposed to the virus first time round and going to avoid it now?

So what - that's it now? No need for vaccines then right?

Of course there will be vaccines, just as there are vaccines for flu and 17000 people die of it annually in the UK,there are vaccines for TB,and 500000 people die of that worldwide.

Even if there is a vaccine people will still die of COVID, but A, it won’t be such a shock because it will no longer be a new virus the impact of which is unknown,and B,many people who might have died will survive,and many who would have caught it won’t because of herd immunity created by a combination of people having had it and people who are vaccinated.

The lockdown wasn’t done to eradicate the virus, it was to slow the curve. You can’t stay in lockdown forever. It simply isn’t possible,and there is going to come a time where if there is a wave, we will have to ride it out.

I'm hoping that higher levels of vitamin D in summer mean that the new infections that are unavoidable with more people working will largely be mild and by winter there will be a degree of immunity in the population. We could get a mild second wave and a low third wave. However this is a hope rather than an expectation as a lot depends on whether immunity develops and lasts at least through winter.

I also think treatment has slightly improved and can be expected to improve further.

70 new cases out of tens of thousands of students attending school hardly amounts to a 'wave'

It’s actually 70 out of around 1.4 million, I believe!

I am in an area which hasn’t really had much of the first wave, so at some point I am expecting some sort of wave.

Eh yourself. Please explain how people who were not exposed to the virus first time round and going to avoid it now?

Where did I say people weren't going to catch the virus?

Some social distancing measures are going to be in place for months to come. And yes, some people will catch the virus, just as they catch other infectious diseases. So long as those numbers can be managed through a combination of measures that hopefully won't amount to the 'wave' that so many here are eagerly predicting.

Obviously cases will increase when restrictions start being lifted. Why can't you understand that the point of lockdown is not to eliminate the virus? How is that so hard?

Ah I get it. It won't be a wave because it'll just be the new normal and people will be dying from it like they do from the flu.

Thanks, I feel better now and all I needed to do was change my perspective.

Ah I get it

I don't think you do.

Alternative,

I'm not picking at you but 'Of course there will be vaccines, just as there are vaccines for flu'. These are different 'species' of virus.

I hope there will be an effective vaccine for COVID but why 'of course'? I know there will be Manhattan-project scale resources devoted and I could be wrong but has there ever been a vaccine for any human Corona virus? For any mammalian corona virus? I think there is one for chickens but birds are not mammals. I think there's no vaccine for FIP. I hope not but what makes you certain there's no fundamental biological characteristic that will prevent an effective vaccine to COVID in humans?

And it makes a lot of sense to let people out of lockdown in the summer so they can get out, get fit, lose weight and get their vitamin D levels up. They will then be better placed to fight the virus if they get it during the winter time.

• Of course there will be vaccines”

How are the vaccines for the other strains of Covid working out?

Question for those who think a second wave is inevitable. What timeframe are we looking at? Weeks or months?
I'm watching the Italy/Spain/France curves closely. Nothing so far.

France have been testing due to schools starting back and have found 70 cases (most of whom have were infected before) and quarantined. Processes exactly designed to prevent a exponential second wave.

Two things are true:

We CANNOT live with this lockdown for the foreseeable future waiting for a vaccine or a cure it is unsustainable

Going straight back into life as before would cause it to rise exponentially again and cause a second wave

So we need a process exactly like South Korea where we contact trace test and monitor and hope to keep numbers down whilst slowly getting back to as close to normal life as possible

At what point does it be become a wave then?

They’re privately run, on the whole they’re only interested in the bottom line,charging exorbitant prices, there is in fact a lot of opinion that the privately run care homes should have been responsible for sourcing their own PPE, although I understand there was some central issue with regards to that. Yes when suppliers were told the NHS was the priority and not to sell to homes they should have damn well bought it anyway and if they'd let the infected in without charging fees they'd have miraculously not spread the virus because profit was what made it spread.

I hope there will be an effective vaccine for COVID but why 'of course'? I know there will be Manhattan-project scale resources devoted and I could be wrong but has there ever been a vaccine for any human Corona virus? For any mammalian corona virus? I think there is one for chickens but birds are not mammals.

There are 7 known Coronaviruses which affect humans. Of these, 4 cause only mild common cold type illnesses which don't need a vaccine. As for the other 3, SARS and MERS both mostly burned themselves out so the search for a vaccine was cut short. However, the research for the SARS vaccine provided the groundwork for the SARS Cov 2 vaccine, and researchers seem very optimstic that at least one of the 100 or so vaccine projects currently taking place will turn up a viable vaccine quite soon. Obviously it's not guaranteed, but chances are it will happen.