to feel relieved because London could be virus free by the end of the month ??

[Italianmoma1983]

It should make us hopeful !! Lockdown will definitely be eased and life could go back a bit to normal !

I too can't believe people are abusing the OP in such a way.

I have seen this too. It is headline news. I'm hoping by now that the self righteous on here will have seen it and will have the decency to apologise.

It has given me hope too....and let's face it it's the most hope we've been given for some time.

What unbelievable twaddle

I have seen this too. It is headline news.

It doesn't make it true, though. More like speculation. No need to abuse the OP though.

The R rate is 0.4. For NOW

Are you ok? You sound very angry.

Don't being so patronising.

I am a bit embarassed for honestly sharing that I genuinely feel a sense of relief being somewhere that had got a handle on this with people from a country who obviously aren't going to be able to share that feeling. Sorry.

Also I do feel angry that people just go on the attack rather than look at the government. My family are all in the UK. We were planning to move back to Europe. My husband's job is fucked. We have lost some money (not as much as others but enough). And this is in country that has done "well" in regard to the virus. Why aren't more people angry?

England does not consist solely of London. In the north numbers are still high which is why this premature easing of lock down is diabolical.

Wow OP, I'm sorry people have responded to you this way. Haven't been on Mumsnet in a while and it seems to have changed a lot.

Hasn't it just.
No wonder mums.chat is getting a lot of defectors.
Why are posters so bloody rude? There is a way to get your point across without resorting to nastiness.
And why is everyone so angry? Jeez

Hopefully London will have reduced the number of cases soon and the rest of the country will follow. It's all good.

The eradicated is speculation (and nowhere is going to do that for a long time)

The low case numbers for London are true @proppedupinbed I have linked the study

@doubleshotespresso the eradication yes the low London numbers is true

@Teateaandmoretea agree London was too late. It is ready to start coming out not. Other areas aren’t.

@Redwinestillfine what point would that be too tank us even more

As anyone else who looks at FlightRadar24 will know, aircraft from all over the world are landing at Heathrow airport every few minutes. The public transport links from there go straight into central London on the tube.

Unless they completely ban all passenger air traffic from entering the UK, then I suspect it might take a while before London is virus-free.

Would be fantastic if true so could those from the countryside etc stay away please we don’t want you hear 😂😂😂😂

Here I meant 😂

Quartz2008 where is the evidence please?

Find this incredibly convenient unbelievable when less than a week ago our parks were bursting, countless VEDay parties occurred and this week public transport has become a travelling time bomb .

Just how?

@Proppedupinbed

Your opening post was patronising and bitter, full of swearing and came across smug.

I personally don't choose to live my life that way - I am thankful for positive news - blame and anger won't make our lives better.

Here's the full Manchester paper

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijcp.13528

@doubleshotespresso I linked to stats from the Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge earlier. They are the figures used to create R and a lot of the slides the Gvt uses

The stuff you mention doesn’t impact on the infection rate in London at the moment but will be interesting to see what effect it does have on the R. London is no different to other parts of Mainland Europe which are also loosening lockdown.

The London figures in 2 weeks will show the impact on what you mentioned it doesn’t make the low numbers currently untrue though

But at no point do either study suggest eradication as that is next to impossible to achieve anywhere! Even with vaccinations smallpox is the only one we had eradicated and that took a very long time

I see the armchair epidemiologists and those who can’t countenance the idea that anything positive could happen in London, ever, have found their natural meeting place and are taking the opportunity to enjoy themselves.

This is an interesting piece of research and it will be interesting to see if the modelling is matched by the improving data picture. Even if it’s on the optimistic side it points to a much stronger starting point for track and trace than we might have expected to be possible a few weeks ago.

However I would hate to spoil anyone’s good time by suggesting a sensible discussion of the model and its findings.

It’s a strange thing to suggest that mumsnetters “want the virus to be here forever”, no one wants wants. Optimism isn’t a treatment nor a vaccine In the same way that fear and worry isn’t strengthening the virus and it’s spread.

ohlookthisisjustdaftnow

I became addicted to Flightradar (and three other sites like it) around the end of February and I still cannot believe the number of flights coming in from all over the World to Heathrow, many from the US and Asia.
There are no quarantine facilities and scant checks on anyone. Your post is bang on the money and simply proves that this so called "lockdown" is a complete sham.

I think a lot of people have forgotten the initial purpose of lockdown. It wasn't to remain isolated until the virus was eradicated which would be ridiculous but rather to flatten any peaks to enable the NHS to cope with the numbers of those who were admitted to hospital. It has worked. The six Nightingale hospitals have barely had any patients, if any.

This is why there is a slackening of lockdown rules, because hospitals have capacity for more patients, not because the virus has gone.

@Proppedupinbed where did you see yesterday’s new infections for London at +3440? I’ve seen that it’s gone down to 24?

@RainMustFall

Excellent post and a good reminder. I might use your paragraph when I'm tussling with dementors on FB. You know, the ones who want the army to do 'proper' lockdown and roadblocks.

New media reports that R dangerously close to 1...just saw it in the guardian.

New media reports that R dangerously close to 1...just saw it in the guardian.

It was at the press briefing. Range from 0.7-1.0, increase driven by care home transmission according to Harries.

0.7 to 1.0 but some regions lower according to Jenny Harries. At 1 it’s not dangerous.

Snap