to feel relieved because London could be virus free by the end of the month ??

[Italianmoma1983]

It should make us hopeful !! Lockdown will definitely be eased and life could go back a bit to normal !

Oh god I dispair. Tin foil hats galore.

Living in Australia. There is still transmission in Australia (tiny - 14 new cases yesterday). The point is in a country the size (land mass rather than population) of Australia, closing all the external interal borders, with lockdown there is still community transmission. There is no way London can eradicate the virus when relaxing lock down with hundreds (thousands?) of active cases.

It's BS whoever said it. I suspect it's the UK government's pr. It's shockingly irresponsible and no doubt there is an agenda.

Do you know what, it is so nice to be in a country that has taken it seriously. The relief when you hear zero new cases in your state is amazing. It really contrasts to the defensiveness I hear how about how the UK government is "trying its best". I still worry about my elderly relatives in the UK though.

I have no problems with being cautiously optimistic as long as it doesn't result in behaviour that puts other people's lives at risk. But that is a big If.

At the moment, we are seeing increased pressure on employees to return to work. This means increased risk not only for those people but also for bus and tube drivers and other staff, and increased risk for NHS staff. It is not about how happy or sad people feel: it is about what they do and what they make others do.

It is not just about the risks we take: it is about the risks we impose on others.

If you’ve honestly read that University of Manchester report and can’t see it’s only fit for the bin then wasting my breath in trying to have an intelligent conversation. The Government already have their antibody survey back (which mathematically gives a pretty accurate pic of how many have had this). It’s about 4% nationally and around 10% in London.

Please explain why it is only fit for the bin?

Gosh, spot the people who don’t read a variety of news sources and so launched straight to the abuse of the OP

@Winterwoollies 👏🏾👏🏾

I mean, seriously, the OP didn’t just pluck this story out of thin air, nor did she write it, twats!

To be fair to the OP she hasn’t got this from her mate Steve down the pub: it’s the front page of the Daily Telegraph based on the latest figures from PHE

So what would it have taken for the OP to have said this at the top of their thread. It doesn't even need to be a link, just a comment to say I read it on the front of the Telegraph - at least it gives people a clue about the source.

People really need to take more personal responsibility for what they post, it's pretty thoughtless.

Think of a monster hanging around a street, it grabs everyone it sees ... so everyone runs home and locks the doors, the monster is still there...waiting in the shadows.... the minute people start coming back outside it pounces again

This is a daft analogy, tbh. The virus is not a sentient being waiting to pounce. It's not lurking outside my door.

Oh bloody hell @Proppedupinbed

You live in a huge sparse country that's in the back end of nowhere. Australia and NZ are a different kettle of fish than the rest of Europe.

Get off your high horse.

@Proppedupinbed it comes from the uk medical research council biostatistics unit working at University of Cambridge alongside PHE NHSEngland and part of Sage

It doesn’t say it’s eradicated nor that it will be (the modelling shows it levelling off at a low level)

London isn’t at 100s a day anymore

I think pretty much if you don’t believe this then you can’t believe any UK government data

ThE media consistently use the hyperbolic headline. Always go to the data and read the more measured scientific Response. They do it to get people to click on the article and dead

Read

@daisychain01 well, if we were to talk about this in legal terms, the burden of proof falls to those attempting to disprove/ridicule the OP, not to her to prove what she has read.

And frankly, as it was all over every news outlet and it’s normal to consider (especially in the midst of a global pandemic) most people may have an eye on the news each day, starting a conversation about a striking headline element is really normal.

I just cannot believe the vitriol and frothing scoffing she received for saying something that has come out of a scientific report.

Yes, this is great news OP. I think a similar pattern has observed in NYC. Locations that are hit hard initially tend to fare better as subsequent waves arrive.

trustthegenegenie aren't you the grouchy one. I never said I was better than the scientists just that I am well practised in creating and reading graphs. My interpretation of the graphs would actually be a massively good story, sorry if it's not as good as the one you would like to hear. It's a bit like winning £5m on the lottery and complaining it's not £20m.

Quartz found the numbers. Yes they are very low which is brilliant - possibly safer for Londoners to go to Cornwall rather than vice versa🤔. But I've now had time to read the Manchester press release and abstract (can't get access to the full paper) and still can't find a suggestion from the scientists that the virus will be eliminated from London by the end of the month. I have no problem with good news, just inaccurate reporting which I have a massive bugbear about. I'm quite happy to believe the scientists but can't see that the headline is what they are saying.

@countrygirl99 oh I agree on that I hate the way media takes scientific reports and creates something exaggerated or slants it differently.

I never trust media reporting always look at the data

Yes I think London probably is because it was so badly hit. London won’t hit zero because more people will start to move around. There is wiggle room here though with an R of 0.4 but it won’t disappear

It won’t disappear but it makes it likely that perhaps we can get a sensible track and trace in place and get our lives back. I think it looks like really good news OP (and I don’t live in London)

I just cannot believe the vitriol and frothing scoffing she received for saying something that has come out of a scientific report.

To be fair people probably don’t want to believe positive stuff in case it doesn’t actually come true. Preparing for the worst avoids massive disappointment.

You live in a huge sparse country that's in the back end of nowhere. Australia and NZ are a different kettle of fish than the rest of Europe.

Er....that is my whole point, if Australia can't be virus free how can London?That was the point of the OP wasn't it?

And what fucking high horse am I on?Daring to live some where where things have been carried out successfully? I think you'll hear of many more unfavorable international comparisons in the next few weeks and months.

Excellent news for London but there's a whole rest of the country for which this isn't the case yet and just like we all went into lockdown for London when it's cases were sky rocketing, I hope London will stay in Lockdown for us for solidarity

@Proppedupinbed

"Do you know what, it is so nice to be in a country that has taken it seriously. The relief when you hear zero new cases in your state is amazing"

If that isn't smug and condescending.....

Insinuating that the UK haven't taken it seriously.

redwines I think London actually went into lockdown too late so not sure that’s true.

It doesn’t say it’s eradicated nor that it will be (the modelling shows it levelling off at a low level)

Sorry, I used the word eradicated as that is what I understood from the OP's use of "virus-free".

London isn’t at 100s a day anymore

I do admit I don't know how many new cases there are in London. I check the new cases in the UK and see +3445 for yesterday and just assumed 10% of the population with London having been a hotspot would probably translate into hundreds of new cases and hundreds or thousands of active cases. But if actual figures for London are available, I would be happy to learn.

@Redwinestillfine the rest of the country didn't go into lockdown for London... it was to save their own areas, the country as a whole.

London going back to work would massively help the economy.

Do you know what, it is so nice to be in a country that has taken it seriously. The relief when you hear zero new cases in your state is amazing

Yes you are right it does sound condensing. It is also fucking true. We've had to go through shoy of lockdown and job losses in our family. So yes it is a fucking relief that it maybe coming to an end of us.

*If that isn't smug and condescending.....

Insinuating that the UK haven't taken it seriously.

The government has done a shit job. Don't get pissed off with me.

But I've now had time to read the Manchester press release and abstract (can't get access to the full paper) and still can't find a suggestion from the scientists that the virus will be eliminated from London by the end of the month

I believe it's a different paper from the Manchester one. It's modelling from University of Cambridge with PHE that London is now having 24 CV cases a day. The R is 0.4 in London, so I think the papers have then done their own thing with the extrapolation. I think they predict low numbers not no numbers.

@Proppedupinbed

Are you ok? You sound very angry.