To think easing lockdown on Monday is allowing a second peak to happen?

[Gawdsake2020]

Exactly that really. Still 4,000 odd infections a day, 600 deaths a day and there easing up on Monday.

I wonder if it will mean that places like NT gardens will be allowed to open again, but not places like museums?

if lock down restricts are lifted it can still have an effect on those shielding and staying in lockdown. many will have district nurse visits, carers visits - these people will be subjected to further possible infection and thus then take it into the homes of the most vulnerable.

it not as simple as "if you want to stay in lockdown do so" there are many other circumstances that will not make this possible

I would like to hope the government know what they're doing but based on their past performance and constant gaslighting I have no confidence in them.

Thousands have died so far because of this government's decisions. The conservative FT estimate so far is 53,000.

Hundreds are still dying every day. 693 yesterday according to the official daily figure down from 2000 in a single day on April 8th. (ONS)

Those deaths were avoidable. We know this because so many other countries have avoided them.

Patrick Vallance says we can avoid a second peak with test trace & isolate. Which if of course how we could have avoided the first one.

If the cumulative number of cases remained the exactly same, the line would be horizontal. But actually R=1 is just where the growth in cumulative numbers of cases is not exponential.

If R were permanently below 1, the virus eventually dies out. An exponential process goes to either infinity or zero, it's practically impossible for there to be a steady state that keeps it at 1. It could be kept at 1 on average by having intermittent lock-downs, so sometimes it was above and sometimes below.

Utter madness. We have the second highest death rate from this in the world. It is so far from over and a few more weeks in 'lockdown' could make a huge difference

Of course. But some people have had enough of isolation, so, you know it has to end so they can go out, no matter the consequences. Anyway they can magic those away by making fun of people who mention them.

I think we are mixing talking about cumulative cases vs new cases.

We cannot go on as we are , it’s unsustainable and it’s causing massive issues in the economy as well as people’s mental health.
They’re not lifting lockdown , they’re easing us out of it slowly.
They have to !
If you want to stay in to feel safe , you do it

There aren’t 600 deaths a day in hospitals.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-6-May-2020.xlsx

Lockdown has to end. Panic needs to end.

Waves hello to second deadly peak.

Yes, like Sweden

They went for the herd immunity strategy, there is still outcry around that from idiots thinking its the evil tories wanting to kill off the population, it's also worth bearing in mind that Sweden has no where near the population density of the UK so making comparisons is not like for like.

Just like Germany is proving successful because of their mixed healthcare and the private sector side stepped up with the testing and tracing.

It's worth some on this thread read this instead of trying to be armchair epidemiologists

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-deaths-how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

YANBU but lots of people where I live seem to have given up on lockdown already. I think hinting at easing restrictions has encouraged the hard of thinking to start early because they think it's going to happen anyway

Economy screwed for a very long time or some more people die... honestly, I'll choose the first option you can't outrun this virus.

I'm afraid that the 'easing' of lockdown is probably as much of a reaction to the fact that the populus is gradually breaking ranks as it is an action stimulated by the numerous figures R, death rate etc) banded about.

I agree. I don't know what the easing will be. Possibly allowing people to travel from their houses to beaches etc.

Hastening the second wave, eh?

Darwin is all.

People are saying we need to go back to work and get the economy going again but that's not going to happen anyway. Lockdown eases , people go back to work, infections rise so then what? Another lockdown? That's going to help the economy.
The death rate is still really high, it should be lower before lockdown eases. I know it's shit but it's still too early.

"Cancer screening should be going on and it's fear not lockdown that is causing a drop in people coming forward."

Routine bowel and breast cancer screening have been suspended, I think - is that not correct? Investigations where there are symptoms are a separate issue.

But even at 0.7 we have threads on MN where we’re told that going out is ‘murder’.

That said, the only reason it is currently 0.7 is because we are all staying inside. If you release the restrictions then it WILL go up. It is inevitable.

I'm not saying that that means it shouldn't happen, just that you can't say "we are fine to go out cos the R0 number is reasonably low".

Scotland have extended for 3 more weeks so how can Britain do differently

Two things. Firstly, Scotland is part of Great Britain, whatever Ms Sturgeon would have you believe.

Secondly, there has been no three week extension. Sturgeon has said it's too early to be making decisions about anything and that they'll follow the science. They are pretty much singing from the same song sheet as the Westminster government and the Welsh Assembly. She talked about perhaps allowing people to meet outside, or schools going back part time and only for some years. But stressed that it's still too early to be making those decisions.

You really should understand the facts before posting nonsense.

@Readily, yes, that would be the total amount of people who have ever been infected. This would go up steadily. However, since people would also be recovering or dying, the number of active cases would remain constant.

Yes, and it's time, maybe a bit late. I've read reports today that we're heading for the worst downturn in living memory. Every single one of us are going to be affected.

Basically, an R of 1 is like passing a baton with ink on it. If you pass the baton to one other person, there are always the same amount of batons in circulation. The amount of people who have ink on them will go up steadily. However, to push this analogy past it's breaking point, as they recover, they wash the ink off. If they all do this after the same amount of time, the amount of people with ink on them will go up initially, but then plateau as soon as the first person starts washing the ink off (recovering).

Not sure what the alternative might be? People will; start to die from non-Covid related issues if we keep this lockdown much longer. There are already people suffering because their operations and consults have been cancelled, because GPs can't do their job properly over the phone or by video.
It's already loosening where we are, more people around. People sitting in parks and open spaces. Meeting for walks or in the park - all j=keeping a social distance but still... more people driving.

@midgebabe interesting that you have that opinion re cancer services. My friend is a senior oncology nurse. All of the consultant oncologists she works with are down to working 2/3 days a week. Palliative chemo was cancelled or severely restricted. I can assure you it is not solely people’s fear that is limiting cancer treatment.

'Of course it is. It's murder.' Alright drama llama. vulnerable people to have the option to stay in lock down.

I think there are some people on here who will stay in self imposed lockdown for the next five years whatever the government says or does.

To those people, if you are in favour of easing lockdown as quickly as we safely can and salvaging as many jobs as we can, then you are labelled 'reckless and irresponsible'.

No point in arguing against them.