To think easing lockdown on Monday is allowing a second peak to happen?

[Gawdsake2020]

Exactly that really. Still 4,000 odd infections a day, 600 deaths a day and there easing up on Monday.

What happens if Covid-20 comes next year? Are we all going to go through this again - or have we actually learned lessons?

The learned lesson is to lockdown ASAP as the quicker lockdown happens the less time spent in lock down and fewer deaths

Are people aware that on average 1600 die every day in the uk anyway? To give some context to numbers. If we lose 300 people with covid that might be on top of usual figures or part of.

Small numbers with a lockdown. We don't know how much higher it would be without but considering how fast deaths rose early on in the lockdown, potentially tens of thousands a day could die for a while. Not insignificant. We also don't know the long-term effects of the virus among the survivors who were very ill which is very relevant as many of them are young.

As sad as that is, Italy's lockdown was far, far stricter than ours. I don't think it's fair to compare the two. Our lockdown was a walk in the park in comparison to that.

This doesn't really count for much. Large numbers have still struggled terribly. It's like saying being in prison is easy because you get a tv. It doesn't work like that.

Mrpumble - The dif is we now know what it is, many will still reduce their travel etc so we won’t get a peak like this again. I am no fan of this gov but we are in a very dif position than in March

lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
Coders are debunking Ferguson's model now it's finally been released by Imperial College. It was never peer reviewed but nevertheless stampeded the Government into lockdown.

The dif is we now know what it is, many will still reduce their travel etc so we won’t get a peak like this again. I am no fan of this gov but we are in a very dif position than in March

We're in a different position at the moment but actually things could be a lot worse especially once schools go back. I hope you're right though.

Coders are debunking Ferguson's model now it's finally been released by Imperial College. It was never peer reviewed but nevertheless stampeded the Government into lockdown.

Considering the lockdown is happened around the world at a much earlier stage than in the UK, it could hardly be described as a stampede into lockdown. Other countries didn't use the Imperial College model and yet they went into lockdown too with almost a universal lower death rate.

Why is Johnson waiting till Sunday 7.00pm?

I'm going to go on a limb and say so that he's not easing any restrictions just in time for a Bank Holiday weekend.

This crisis had seen the Government totally abdicate responsibility to the Professors and the Scientists. How often have you heard one Minister after another saying 'we'll be guided by the science'?

I am sure these scientists and academics are nice people but generally speaking their type do not live in or understand the real world and the real economy. They are insulated in their academic institutions and way of life.

It does not seem to bother a lot of people on here that the dubious advice of a few 'academics' aided by inept Ministers is going to up the lives of literally millions of people in this country over coming months and years. BA and Virgin Atlantic are the high profile tip of a very big iceberg.

Do people seriously think the whole country can stay on hold for months while we hope this thing goes away? Then we can pop our heads above the ground and check if it is safe to come out like a colony of meerkats?

Let's see what Johnson comes up with on Sunday. There will be a load of waffle / NHS flannel / stories of his near death - but will there be anything meaningful? Given what countries like Germany and Holland are doing it is hard to imagine that he can stick his head in the sand any longer.

I am sure these scientists and academics are nice people but generally speaking their type do not live in or understand the real world and the real economy. They are insulated in their academic institutions and way of life.

What bullshit. I bet you don't actually know any academics.

This crisis had seen the Government totally abdicate responsibility to the Professors and the Scientists. How often have you heard one Minister after another saying 'we'll be guided by the science'?

Actually Chris Witty and Patrick Vallance have both said several times publicly that it is up to the MPs to make the decisions - they give scientific information and possible courses of action to the MPs, and the Ministers need to decide which course to take. Because "the science" doesn't tell you exactly what to do - it gives you information to make decisions with, and it gives you likely outcomes from those decisions, but what MPs choose depends on the country's priorities, acceptance of risk, balancing against different factors.

lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/

Toby Young's website. You know, the guy who needed daddy's help to get into Oxford & has spent his whole life trying to live up to being his father's son.

Which are the models that you think are terrific & correct, t@Smilethoyourheartisbreaking ?

MeridasWisp

This crisis had seen the Government totally abdicate responsibility to the Professors and the Scientists. How often have you heard one Minister after another saying 'we'll be guided by the science'?

I wouldn’t want it any other way. WTH does the average Minister know about the behaviour of viruses?

I was cycling home from work today (mental health nurse in the NHS) and was convinced I'd missed something and the restrictions were already lifted. Defintely more traffic on the roads. I cycle through s few parks. While theyve been fairly busy, i accept that where i cycle through his a high density of people including many in flats, and that pre lockdown many would be exercising by going to the gym, swimming or playing football or something, which were out of bounds. Most did seem to be walking, jogging or cycling or dog walking. A few kicking a ball with the kids, which I don't think there's anything wrong with. Still exercise IMO. Today there was a definite number of sunbathers and picnickers. There's an ice cream shop o. My way which was open, with a queue, albeit the queue was socially distancing. By one park an ice cream man was doing a roaring trade. The ice cream man is always there in normal times, but hasn't been since lockdown till today.

There's a company near me that does dog grooming/walking/day care and it's now open for grooming. I can't get my own hair cut but I'm glad my dog can. I can only assume you can't socially distance when cutting someone's hair but there's been no firm evidence of catching it from a pet.

I do sympathise with small buisnesses or self employed people. It must be a nightmare atm. But I'm not sure if they're acting within guidelines?

Btw my dog never needs a hair cut. She's a short hair. And when she needs a bath I just put her in the bath and shower her.

Ps sorry for typos

Today 00:36 dayslikethese1

I'm so confused; up until a couple days ago everyone was saying lockdown shud go on for a long time, be stricter etc. And berating ppl for not following rules. And now everyone is saying lockdown needs to stop and its ridiculous.....“

No, everyone really isn’t. Polling is still consistently showing large majority support for current measures to continue for a further period.

I wouldn’t want it any other way. WTH does the average Minister know about the behaviour of viruses?

But 'the science' doesn't tell you what to do, as there are a range of different courses of action, depending on what your aims, priorities and acceptance of risk are. Ministers don't know about viruses, but we elect them to make decisions for us, and they can be given a range of options to choose from. Sweden and New Zealand have chosen different courses for example, both using scientific knowledge for different aims.

I did notice though that in the briefings Boris and MPs frequently said they are being guided by 'the science'- I hope they aren't trying to shift blame to the scientists! Who in return said that they are giving options to the MPs and it is the MPs who have to decide!

Of course it will happen

And a third and probably a forth

They hopefully won’t be as bad the concern is that a wave will hit in December/January

Honestly people, wake up, even Germany isn't sure if it might be too early to easy restrictions. Let’s look at what we’ve achieved with our half-arsed lockdown, still a huge number of new cases, lack of PPE, track and trace not in place, insufficient testing, huge death toll, open borders, no vaccine, no therapeutics to help. Exactly what makes people feel it’s safe now as I’m drawing a blank.
Actually I’ll give them NHS capacity, that’s about all they’ve managed!

I'm uneasy, but the reality is the economy can't go on like this much longer. I think any pub or restaurant that has outdoor space should be allowed to use just that, not indoor space for customers. And businesses should offer employees returning sanitiser, masks & gloves. And the tube should be compulsory masks/gloves. I do wonder why wholesalers binning restaurant foodstuffs can't divert it to food banks tho. Yes, it's industrial size but they could decant it if people donated tupperware (I've got a cupboard full barely used). A lot of them already decant sugar etc into self seal bags. Church halls could be a temporary storage solution.

i think one issue is that people mean different things by ‘safe’ when talking about whether its safe to lift the lockdown. Originally the aim was not to eradicate the virus but to ensure nhs capacity was not breached.

Now i think people think of it in a different way although i am not sure ‘safe’ is ever defined - nhs capacity not breached, virus eradicated (Not sure thats possible is it.?), absolutely no increase in number of daily cases and deaths? If the latter two are the aims, that has a different policy implication from the position if we just dont want to breach nhs capacity.
Govt comms arent that clear on this point - ministers talk about ‘safe’, ‘suppressing’ driving down the r, driving the number of cases right down etc.