To think easing lockdown on Monday is allowing a second peak to happen?

[Gawdsake2020]

Exactly that really. Still 4,000 odd infections a day, 600 deaths a day and there easing up on Monday.

are they going to cover waht this means for everyone though
can we ease lcodown waiting for a second peak when our num bers just arent dwon enough.surely we needed to be at olower num,bers so we could withstand the second peak.
will people with the severe risk still be told you have to be in lockdown though?

PS to Gawdsake: I wrote the below based on what you said, I haven't yet read the latest news so knew nothing about the proposed easing of lockdown on Monday. I'll have a look now, thanks.

I think they are just looking at plans to enable more people to get back to work.

Draft plans I've seen so far (summary via buzz feed) are for cafes and restaurants take away only so thy ere will be no going to pubs

I imagine is very slight easing

This is the absolute latest I can find on 'net:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/keir-starmer-challenges-pm-boris-johnson-claim-of-coronavirus-success

I think it should be eased slightly.

It's madness. We should watch what happens elsewhere
Yes, like Sweden. There's no need to imprison people at home, you allow them to adapt their lives to reduce the risks of becoming infected.

Draft plans I've seen so far (summary via buzz feed) are for cafes and restaurants take away only

But that's not easing, it's what's in place already.

People don't have to ease restrictions. So anyone who is worried about it is welcome to carry on as we are.

Unfortunately, it isn't that simple. If restrictions are eased, then more people will be around, carrying the virus into supermarkets. shops, public transport etc. So the risk goes up for everyone else who has to be out.

The country does need to get going again but I think those saying 'we can't afford this' have forgotten a very important point.

The VAST majority of people who have died were economically in active.

The VAST majority I would guess in excess of 90 % in receipt of pensions.
Benefits, care home fee contributions
,
So, in PURELY economic terms 30+ k dead (and probably closer to 55k before it finally fades... mostly amongst the over 65s that is already a substantial saving for the treasury.

Assume a 75 year old could expect an average life expectancy of 85 and a state pension of £120 a week. That's already a saving of £3.43 bn in state pension alone... add to that the fact the most of the dead had underlying health problems it is fair to assume a large proportion received attendance allowance/or PIP... then add in the fact that these people are no longer going to be attending hospital with their underlying health issues.

Then add to that all the elderly in care homes funded via the state at over £700 per week. If we only assume 10k fall in to this category (unlikely as this virus kills those in deprivation far more disproportionately than the better off) and then assume they would normally be in a care home for 7 years. That's another £2.54 bn..

Hate to be a cynic but 55,000 mostly elderly and sick/health issues people no longer costing the state money is going to save this country well over £10bn...

Although I am sure they no that. Doesn't harm the desperate need to 'do something about social care' promise made in the election either. 55k less people to 'do something 'about.. does make that job easier.

Although I am pretty sure this has all been calculated before the chancellor started opening up his wallet and making the govt look - oh so generous and caring'.

As for the lockdown - it needs to go on for as long as it needs to. Which is easy for me to say . I wfh my kids are all furloughed . Life is pretty easy. However if i lived in a high rise flat with young kids and SN I would no doubt be as desperate as the next person for this to end. Therefore my opinion. Ones from a point of comfort - which I accept.
However this virus will not go away simply by people being frustrated. Sadly.

The taxpayer cannot keep funding furlough etc forever. Lockdown was never meant to kill off the virus in the UK - we would have needed realistically to close our borders by late last year for that to be an option - it was to 'flatten the curve' to allow the NHS to cope with the particular symptoms caused in a small percentage of people. The curve has been flattened; and we have Nightingale Hospitals on standby wer
e they to be needed this time.
It is time to allow people to make their own choices.

@RedAzalea we've had a letter from the management of care home where DM is saying that they are going to provide face masks for their staff to wear when out in the community as they are likely to be exposed more as lockdown eases. They are already given masks to wear when coming within 2m of a resident (so I would imagine this is pretty much all the time.). Obviously they cannot police the wearing of masks outside of the home. They are checking temperatures daily and are hoping to soon have testing available.

I don’t want to die of the virus, but nor do I want to carry on living this “half life”. I need the NHS to get back to carrying out operations. I am waiting for joint replacement surgery.

I totally respect anyone who wants to remain in isolation, but throughout this I have been deliberately going to shops without gloves and masks. I don’t wash my shopping and handle my post. In that way I hope I have been exposed to low amounts of the virus. I think viral load is important.

I also live alone and this lockdown is starting to impact on both my physical and mental health.

easing isnt ending though is it? Nowhere has anyone said that as from Monday we are going to go back to how things were in March. But neither can we continue on with a lockdown at this level that for now has done what it was designed to do. Particularly when everywhere else has started up and recent discoveries of early cases in Europe means we are probably not that dissimilar a point to others.

Easing means move carefully or gradually. Which is exactly what this needs a very gradual releasing or stuff/building up blocks.

There is no eradication of this merely trying to contain it at a manageable level

I don't think the lockdown is going to end anytime soon, we will simply see an easing of restrictions.

We need to restart the economy before the second wave hits (December)

Well then fine, you stay in and hide. I'm personally glad the government seems to be coming to their senses. I doubt their over cautiousness shown so far will allow for much relaxing of the rules, but I'll take whatever I can get thanks.
You stay inside if you 2ant. You do you.

@nellodee

If the cumulative number of cases remained the exactly same, the line would be horizontal. But actually R=1 is just where the growth in cumulative numbers of cases is not exponential.

Currently they think it’s about 0.7 in the UK. The lower the R the more slowly new cases will trickle in. And hopefully people will recover so the current numbers of active infections decrease.

But even at 0.7 we have threads on MN where we’re told that going out is ‘murder’.

Re cars on the road...
People keep saying this, but they're really not. Rush hour has completely disappeared
I think it depends where you live. I gave a 20 mile drive to and from work. I'm a key worker so still have to go in. In the past week or so I've seen just as many cars out and about on my drive, as we're out before lockdown.
I think it's got to the stage were people are just starting to ignore some of the rules they don't like. While I'm going to keep following the guidelines, I see my neighbours having visitors over every afternoon for BBQs and drinks and kinda wonder why I'm bothering! I'd like to see my friends and family too... But I'm not, which is taking a definite toll on my mental health.

@vanillandhoney. The documents to tell companies how they should modify so that people can be encouraged to return to work safely are new (ish) they are currently draft documents. My point about cafes and restaurants was just to illustrate to those thinking that come Monday we would be back to 'normal' and people heading off to the pub.

I'm far from 'stir crazy' and am quite happy in lockdown. However I think it can't last forever. Many people are capable of thinking past their own circumstances

I think on Sunday Boris will say something vague like non essential travel allowed or family bubble thing. He wouldn't be saying anything substantial if it is meant to start the following day.
Or would he?

Highly likely a second peak will happen, and highly likely that would be unavoidable at some point. This is the reality we will have to live with, there is no alternative. People need to set their own risk appetites and behave accordingly. I will be as locked down as I reasonably can be for a good while yet, but getting on with work and life. People have to get back to work or we will all be very poor for a very long time.

Utter madness. We have the second highest death rate from this in the world. It is so far from over and a few more weeks in 'lockdown' could make a huge difference.