To think easing lockdown on Monday is allowing a second peak to happen?

[Gawdsake2020]

Exactly that really. Still 4,000 odd infections a day, 600 deaths a day and there easing up on Monday.

i saw the news report about the woman who found out through having covd that she had a heart confdition

had no idea was short of breath sometimes but didnt know why

Hospital deaths in England are currently about 100 per day.

We can't all be locked down forever. People need to go back to work/ find work etc. Yes there probably will be another spike, but lockdown wasn't meant to eradicate it as that's impossible....it was meant to slow it down.

Depending on how many get it, the death toll among younger people would be devastating.

This is true. Even 0.1% of people is still a lot. If a million young people caught it and 0.1% die, that’s still 1000 people

@SudokuBook one of the girls who works there as a carer literally keeps posting on instagram her new home bits from b & m! I'm sure they arent all doing it, but the young ones certainly are.

Are people aware that on average 1600 die every day in the uk anyway? To give some context to numbers. If we lose 300 people with covid that might be on top of usual figures or part of.

Not saying let’s all rush around and catch it - just saying be sensible about where we are today

"I really like the idea of a "voluntary lockdown" for easing, it is just more sustainable."

And given the number of people who might well want to continue to stay at home in lockdown (paid, under my proposal!) the impact on infections would be mitigated to some extent. Obviously difficult for parents if schools don't go back, but for those without dc or where one parent can work at least, it could work (Repeating myself here!)

Parks (sunbathing and sitting on benches) and picnics seem unlikely to boost the economy and employment much. Will be interesting to see if the garden centres are allowed to open next week - have read conflicting reports on that!

@fromlittleacorns one of our local garden centres opened yesterday .
They’ve opened the food hall and the outside plant area

The government will have to kickstart economy pretty sharpish as there's not long to go to Xmas and a no deal Brexit. A good point raised earlier in thread about there will be a second wave and best to have in summer and not in winter.
This government has already literally thrown the over 70 s away by not even doing much about carehomes etc. It will now be focusing much more on the economy and will rely on public to do social distancing and monitoring themselves via apps so they can calmly walk away from disaster and concentrate on what's important for a Tory government, money before life.

I think it is insane for the UK to start easing restrictions. But it is a hopelessly hard choice, but one that is the result of the government's poor action at the beginning. The lockdown has been ridden out or the UK has to realise a lot people will die or have serious health problems in the future. Both options will be very bad. I don't think there is any mythical "right" path. The country is fucked either way.

It's not a game. These are the consequences of slow action and years of austerity. I actually think that a lot of people think that this is a disaster that no government could have prepared for (cough cough, exercise cygnus shows they knew), but I think that it is a disaster that has been 10 years in the making. Any prevention against the spread of this disease have been whittled away, leaving the country at the mercy of an incompetent leader.

Not sure Sostenuto - later reports following this morning's dramatic headlines suggest the changes to the law from Monday will actually be very limited (as a couple of posters predicted here!). Though it will be interesting to see how much change they'll try to get going within the current legal framework - people going back to work if it's possible, etc.

I must admit I'm still wondering if 'voluntary unlockdown' (with paid lockdown for those who want!) is a way forward, but for those who don't like it it doesn't appear that it;s one of the options under consideration by the govt!

It seems that there is some serious back-pedaling going on from the government this afternoon that changes will be 'very minimal' etc. I suppose all we can do is see what Sunday brings.

It seems that there is some serious back-pedaling going on from the government this afternoon that changes will be 'very minimal' etc. I suppose all we can do is see what Sunday brings.

Far be it from me to defend this shithouse excuse for a government (and the complete tosser taking the pay for being PM and absenting himself at every touvh and turn), but it's the media that have set the hares running on this.

Johnson's relevant mistake (amongst many) was to give such a massive lead-in to his 'big speech' on Sunday - the speculation has been insane and the papers have fuelled expectations.

True Tokyosushi! Who knows what will have happened by then? Porton Down data (remember that? The 4th pillar of testing - seems to have disappeared from reporting) might be available, and govt might know a bit more about how well track and trace is working (although is govt now planning to switch to the Apple system - I can't keep up!)

Public opinion works both ways - I did think that if it was cautious the govt would take the view that it could be bolder in easing the restrictions, in the knowledge that not many people would actually go to the newly opened shops etc. But I now think it may actually have the opposite effect. Though presumably there is some concern about the forecast GDP/unemployment figures.

Economy must be restarted. The number of suicides in Italy has increased since the lockdown and most of these people had lost their jobs (although newpapers barely mention it). If we continue like this we will have a country in economic depression, which will kill thousands of others.

Most of routine healthcare has been suspended due to covid, cancer referrals have declined, these are people who might die due to a curable illness.

And Sweden's idea, to keep vulnerable groups isolated whilst others catch the virus and develop immunity wasn't terrible as it was made to look. Surely they should have a higher number of deaths in proportion to the population? We might never have a vaccine.

What are we going to live on until a cure is found? I wonder what all these people who'd be happy to spend years in lockdown do for a living.

The number of suicides in Italy has increased since the lockdown and most of these people had lost their jobs (although newpapers barely mention it)

As sad as that is, Italy's lockdown was far, far stricter than ours. I don't think it's fair to compare the two. Our lockdown was a walk in the park in comparison to that.

@vanillandhoney it has NOTHING to do with whether it was strict or not, it has to do with people losing their jobs and the recession we will face now. And it's perfectly possible to have the same thing happen in the UK.

There seem to be a lot of garden centres open in our area (I haven't been to one) and other companies deciding themselves when they are starting back. Very confusing.

They are probably re-opening because if they don't they will go bust!!!

Far better that than mass unemployment (though we are pretty much guaranteed that thanks to Johnson/Sunak/ Hancock etc).

Newgirls - getting that very sensible message across to most of the population is very difficult. Due entirely to Government creating panic and the media jumping on the panic bandwagon.

A vaccine is not the answer.

What happens if Covid-20 comes next year? Are we all going to go through this again - or have we actually learned lessons?

Anyhow, isn't today the day that the Government legally (by Act of Parliament) have to update us. And if they don't then legally there is no lockdown?

Why is Johnson waiting till Sunday 7.00pm? Maybe he is fulfilling a fantasy to take his comedy show to the London Palladium?

Newgirls: indeed! I have wondered whether some of the more anxious PPs have just not known many people who have died, which would be odd because I don't get the impression that the average age on MN is very young. I'm probably wrong but I find it really baffling.

11000 lives saved by drop in pollution from cars
Less people suffering heart attacks due to more relaxed life style

Scotland shut for another 3 weeks

We already have a large death toll, I doubt that any sensible government will relax the lockdown by to major methods and risk an increase in the death toll

@iamapixie

Haven't RTFT but is it not the exponential growth aspect of deaths from a new virus? Looking at the numbers is not just about how many have died, but what it indicates about where R is, where it might be in the future etc.