To ask whether you would support a further lockdown?

[lola777]

Posting here simply as I don't know if voting can be enabled outside AIBU.

Vote yes- You would support further lockdown of this extent
Vote no- You would not support a lockdown of this extent after the current lockdown period

Personally, I would be happy for restrictions to slowly be lifted after this. Amongst my friends, I feel I am in the majority.

Yes indeed I'd support another lockdown, & for as long as it takes.

They can't just keep saying lockdown indefinitely though. I think the next time round they need to ease up a little, otherwise people will just not comply any more. If you give people a little more freedom i think they'd be likely to comply for longer. So no large gatherings, no parties or bbqs on the beach - but small businesses reopening and households starting to mingle.

So, on this basis- how much longer do you suggest we stay locked down? another month? 2 months? 3 months? The virus isnt going anywhere is it?

Until we have seen a consistent fall in C-19 deaths and new cases for 2 weeks*, in my view. Lacking both a time machine and a crystal ball, I can't say for certain.

What I can say is that that day will come sooner if people just stay home and stick to the rules.

*I'd be happy with 7-10 days, if only the government had managed to produce figures in a timely fashion, rather than not reporting a tranche of weekend deaths until Tuesday or Wednesday, which makes it impossible to get an accurate picture for any period less than 10-12 days.

for as long as it takes.

What does that mean though?

I think we'll be in lockdown for another 3 weeks after this one at least.

Are some people actually going to start breaking the rules and visit relatives and friends?

Absolutely I will support a further lockdown if necessary.

I am getting so pissed off with so many people's attitudes about this.

Also, yes I will support it.

If I could see my partner (we live apart due to childcare responsibilities ) I would support a further lockdown

At what point does the lockdown do more harm though? Is it acceptable to those supporting lockdown infefinitely for the suicide death rate to soar? Are some types of death nore acceptable than others? Why?

I don't want to break the rules, and havent done so far. But the harsh reality is if it continues again circumstances mean I will need to send DS to my parents.

I wouldn't presume to be an expert on this and say YES, I will support it for a further 7/14/21/28 or whatever days. What do I know?

I wait to be told by those who have access to all the information and will do as I am told to. Simples.

Quite why most people on this thread think they are experts and in a position to make a call on this I really don't know.

FilthyforFirth

In a nice way (just curious) why would you have to send your DS to your parents?

@Figmentofmyimagination, I'm reading (among other things a bit less demanding) Defoe's "Journal of the Plague Year". The Laura Spinney sounds good, I may add it to my next order, so thank you.

I've also got, but not started, a thriller by Peter May called "Lockdown" about a pandemic and civil resistance to it. He wrote it in 2005, but his publisher rejected it as too far-fetched.

I would support the lockdown if it was necessary, it's a crap way to die, hitting our most vulnerable (and apparently causing strokes in young people) and I don't feel we know enough about it yet, to go back to normal. When we have more of an idea of what it does and how to contain it, then I will go back. DH and I are both working full time from home and DD is doing her online schooling, so we're not in a bad position. It's not my preferred way of living, but I'll put up with it until we know more.

I think that the existing lockdown will be extended for a further 3 weeks with perhaps some minor changes in terms of who can/should be working.
I will support this on the basis that I can see that the lower we get the numbers the better position we are in to try and come out of it. BUT I will only support it if the government give us some clear guidance at the same time as to how we will be coming out of this.
Dh job is in the leisure industry and in a sector that will find it very hard to come back from this I think. I really want to see some plan that gives them a realistic timescale of when they might be able to reopen. Currently they’re planning for end of June/July and I’m just not sure that’s realistic. If they were told eg September even though that’s really bad news at least they would have something to plan for and work towards and would be able to better figure out measures that might keep them afloat until then.

So yes broadly supportive for a further 3 weeks if necessary but only if that is accompanied by a proper exit plan covering schools and all industries.

I wait to be told by those who have access to all the information and will do as I am told to. Simples.

But most people have access to a whole heap of information and the tricky thing is that there’s no perfect solution. It’s ok to disagree with the government response. All of the information includes a whole heap of unknown variables.

There are so many variables there’s nothing “simples” about it.

• the number of cases are unknown and the death rate in the U.K. is so high there’s clearly gross undertesting
• the individual infectivity is unknown - are you more likely to pass it to others if you’re frankly symptomatic?
• a vaccine or specific treatment may never come, a vaccine will probably be at least 18 months if it happens. Should vulnerable people be advised to shield for years?
• which people are actually vulnerable? A big risk seems to be related to an overactive immune response in the second week. Who is at greater risk of this and why?
• will there be second or third waves? Should lockdown be recommenced then?
• how long will the public accept social distancing?
• how many people are getting sicker or dying during this period due to delayed presentations with other illnesses?
• will be there a functional Public Health Service if many people stay in lock down until a vaccine?
• when antibody tests are widely available will they even be meaningful? How long is immunity conferred for? Will the virus mutate and be sufficiently different that “the vaccine” needs to be changed yearly, like the ‘flu vaccine?

There’s a lot to consider. It’s not “simples”.

*Reported hospital deaths for the last week (not including the number dying 'in the community', especially care homes):

April 19th: 596
April 20th: 449
April 21st: 828
April 22nd: 763
April 23rd: 638
April 24th: 768
April 25th: 813*

Seeing the figures like this highlights the difficulty of establishing the trend in deaths over a week.

Because of the time lag in weekend reporting, they are always low on Suns & Mons, and high on a Tuesday when they catch up. That accounts for the lows on 19th and 20th, and the rise on 21st. But then yesterday it was back to over 800 again, and not much lower than Tuesday's artificially inflated figure.

So is that an outlier, a catch-up in reporting/recording, or a sign that deaths are starting to rise again? We won't know until we have another week's figures.

And if the deaths are starting to rise again, is it because people are increasingly breaching lockdown and it needs to be more strictly enforced?

The recording/reporting is a fucking shambles, frankly. The ONS figures are more accurate, but although they're based on date of death, they can't be reported soon after the event as it can often take a couple of weeks to register a death.

BatsEars "I am getting so pissed off with so many people's attitudes about this."

Quite.

There’s an advisor in the Observer this morning saying lockdown needs to stay in place until new hospital admissions are down to a few hundred a day. I think making that an official announcement would be helpful. It gives something to aim for and also involves the public by making clear it’s not an arbitrary end date to lock down - we can all bring the date forward by staying home and slowing the transmission so we got that target quickly.

BeatrixPottersAlterEgo

“ ...... but I'm not going to sit at home with my bored kids while a special dispensation is given to the Holy Church of fucking Kickabout”.

Sorry, this is clearly an extremely serious thread and there are many people more knowledgeable than I contributing on the important stuff.

But you’ve just made me laugh aloud with this, so thanks for that 😁

I think we should stay in lockdown for as long as we need to, to bring the numbers down and avoid a second peak. I hate it but I honestly don't think it's time to lift it when the numbers of deaths and infections are rising.
It's a horrible disease and I want to protect people from early deaths. Staying in is terrible, not seeing people I love physically hurts and one of my children may lose his business. But coming out of lockdown too soon would be worse

Lakie "The recording/reporting is a fucking shambles, frankly"

no, it's not. It's deliberately designed to justify their actions. If you look at the NHS data - sorry, can't link at the mo but will do later - it's a lot different.

I'd support for another couple of weeks but we need to get back to businesses functioning within new operators

Are some people actually going to start breaking the rules and visit relatives and friends?

I am, if this goes on beyond next week.

Are some people actually going to start breaking the rules and visit relatives and friends?

I am too

I agree it isn't 'simples' to decide what the right approach is for individuals - that's why I don't presume to try and decide what is best.

The information is vast and difficult to understand and interpret. Quite why the typical person thinks they have enough information or capacity to decide what is best for the nation is beyond me. However, government does have access to more information and also to experts to interpret it and make decisions.

I trust their decisions more than I trust my own gut instinct or interpretation of the information (lots - but still only the tip of the iceberg) about what is best. That's why I say it's simples. It is simply the fact that government is in a stronger position to say what is best for the country than I am. They are far more bale to take the broader and bigger picture view.

The problem is that people want to look at their own life and not take the bigger view for more than a week or two.