Labour is right to demand an exit strategy

[Goldenheart18]

This lockdown has removed (I hope temporarily) our basic human rights. I get that it was done to ensure that the NHS could cope with the surge of coronavirus cases. But after 4 weeks the government has confirmed that the NHS is coping, and that it does have capacity for more cases. Yet they won’t even slightly ease the lockdown restrictions, or even give any indication as to how long they will last, or which ones might be eased up first. More importantly they won’t explain what their plan is for getting us back to some kind of normality.

Surely by this point , after 4 weeks, the government should have had a workable plan for exiting the lockdown, given that the longer it goes on the greater the damage to the economy. They keep saying that the science will inform when they lift the restrictions. But that makes no sense. Even if they get new cases down to zero as soon as we exit they will go right back up again. Surely the rate of infection is only part of the issue. The main one is how do we keep the rate of infection low once we leave lockdown (which has to be to be temporary if we do not want an economic depression).

It seems likely that any workable exit plan depends on testing and contact tracing. But where is the government on achieving any of that in the next 3 - 4 weeks? If they don’t publish their exit plan they cannot be held to account for whether or not they are putting in place the right measures to achieve it. And that’s why they absolutely should be open with the public now about what their plans are.

We have just gone through years and years of austerity as a country where poverty and homelessness has surged. We cannot afford another Great Depression.

Aibu?

@RandomLondoner 3 years of home schooling ???? How are families going to cope with that ! And don’t tell m one of the parents gives up their job to do it cuz that’s not an option for many. What about the socialising is kids ? Take by that they wouldn’t be allowed to meet with friends or go to clubs ?

I think I read the other day that closing schools wasn’t delaying the spread as much as they wanted

I don't think the government can win on this. If they gave a date to end the lockdown and then has to change it they'd get slammed by the media for a u turn.

I think thru should however give a road map, ie they'd first allow non essential shops, then primary schools etc.

I think they want an exit strategy so they can call themselves the party of the people, caring about jobs etc.
I know what the exit strategy will look like, schools nurseries, cafes pubs restaurants for those with good immunity, if there is no surge in cases more businesses. etc.
Kier Starma is just setting the tone for the next election - so he can say he is the party for jobs. Parties want power, that's their first consideration. not anything else.

I think a lot of people are confusing calling for an exit strategy with calling for an exit timeline or just plain calling for exit from lockdown.

I think we do deserve to hear what the overall strategy is. I think it would help too - so many on here clearly think the point of lockdown is to eliminate the virus when that ship has sailed.

I don't believe that they have a strategy yet. They haven't managed any of this very well, going right back to the desktop exercise that they had in, I think, 2014 that said they'd need a big stock of PPE and Jeremy Hunt blocked the purchase.

I think they should have a plan by now and, while I can understand them not wanting to make it public, I think it would be a good idea to share it with key opposition members.

I'm really worried that it will be all or nothing, everything will reopen and the infection will start to spread again, followed by another full-on lockdown. I wouldn't put it past them to put the economy above lives.

I think there has been a shocking lack of transparency from the government all the way through this business.

I can see both sides of this, and would assume that there are a number of exit strategies being developed and which one will be used will not just depend on our numbers, but other countries and how their exit plans have faired, was there a second peak, how did people behave etc, as well as where we are with medical advances Ie treatment, CPAP, testing etc.

So I suspect it’s a moving feast. The issue is many of us clearly want to know. We want the end in sight. But they want to see how it plays out, as well as keeping the focus on people staying in.

It’s a difficult one to judge. No one managing this will have ever dealt with anything like this, and people are trying to model something that’s simply never happened before, so always have to make assumptions to do so.

The fact we are behind other countries and locked down later is hugely in our favour, we get to see how their exit strategies work, and we get more time in terms of medical developments, giving us a higher chance of success when we do exit.

If you watch any of the select committee presentations, you’ll know this isn’t a case Of they will wait till Boris is back, or develop it next week. It’s a constant activity that’s being going on for weeks with a huge amount of scientific, medical, behavioural, and economic experts working it.

People still aren't following the lockdown rules, if they start releasing exit strategies people will just believe they can start following those rules now.

WTF are you talking about, please?

I think we do deserve to hear what the overall strategy is. I think it would help too - so many on here clearly think the point of lockdown is to eliminate the virus when that ship has sailed.

Yes, the government has done an absolutely terrible job of allowing people to think that the aim of the lockdown is to prevent people from dying of covid19. In fact, the aim is to moderate the flow of infection so that the NHS can cope.

We're on track to have the highest mortality rate in Europe. The fact that "the NHS can cope" doesn't make that ok!

Nonsense, no one can know the mortality rate until we know how many people have had it. This speculation that the UK will be in so much worse a place than the rest of Europe is just pointless.

If you think that the UK locking down later is responsible for some kind of divergence, please consider what's going to happen over the next 18 months while we wait for a vaccine to arrive.

There is no exit strategy until the human trials for a vaccine is concluded and then manufactured to a scale where the majority of the population can have it.

This is like Starmers 5 tests for Brexit and being disingenuous. What the government needs to do is admit what the next 1-2 years looks like.

I think over the next 3 weeks some non essential business that closed will be told to reopen to protect the economy. Manufacturing and construction mainly. They never meant for all business to close, they only specified that retail and leisure closed.

Then the rest of us will remain as we are for another 3 weeks. Which will be o weeks lockdown. Then they may allow some other non essential business to open with the same social distancing measures as supermarkets. So clothes shops, electricals etc. Hospitals will start seeing non covid urgent patients again like cancer patients and the nightingale hospitals will be used for covid patients. Schools may go back for certain year groups for 6 weeks mid June. Sports will restart behind closed doors.

They aren't discussing it yet because they are watching spain and france and Italy.

*Without a vaccine the only way to ease the lockdown is to massively ramp up testing and contact tracing. We aren't even close to where we need to be with that.

The government just aren't being honest with us and they treat us like children*

Absolutely right.

Even if they came out and said that they would consider some relaxation of lockdown rules when the figures showed no increase or a fall in death rates for a full 3 weeks, and the lockdown would be eased gradually, rather than just lifted all in one hit, I think a lot of people would accept that. I certainly would, although I'd still be pissed off about the complete failure of testing. But they're not even doing that.

I suspect that, because of the woeful failure to even record all deaths due to covid, or deaths where covid was present, they know that they can't even be sure of the extent to which the current measures are working, let alone what the rate of infection has been among the population as a whole. They have effectively hobbled themselves, because they can't be certain of anything.

That's why they won't even talk about an exit strategy, it would be like the emperor highlighting his own nakedness.

For once I agree with the the Tories (never, ever thought I would say that!). We cant be trusted as a nation, people are ignoring the rules (DH is a keyworker and sees it everyday), if they say in 3 weeks this is what we plan to try, the idiots will start doing it straight away! I think they need to keep things j dry wraps until the last minute.

I don't like the government's reasoning that talking about our exit strategy would be confusing. I think people can understand that yes now we're locked down now but once certain conditions are met we'll move to a different situation. It eoukd help to understand what those conditions are and what the next stage will be.

Keir Starmer just wants to make a noise so people dont forget he's there, not much for the opposition to do at the moment!

@ Snugglepiggy

I know a lot of people posting nonsense rants on facebook but your complaint makes literally no sense. If we had locked down sooner (and got our bloody testing sorted) it's likely that we would have been able to ease lockdown more quickly and how is an adult meant to control the actions of their adult siblings? Luckily my sisters are both abiding by lockdown rules but there'ld be very little I could do about it if they weren't.

There is no exit strategy until the human trials for a vaccine is concluded and then manufactured to a scale where the majority of the population can have it

Or until herd immunity is established, which we have no way of knowing until lockdown's lifted, because of the lack of testing;
or unless we are prepared to risk some incidents of infection but implement rigorous test, track and trace measures.

I'd be happy for lockdown to be lifted, a bit at a time, if there was a decent test, track and trace protocol in place. It seems to have worked very well in South Korea.

The middle and upper classes largely don’t have as much to worry about, unless the country tips so far that we enter a depression on the same scale as the Great Depression.

Op plenty of rich people are going to be a great deal less rich after this. So you can enjoy that prospect.

Keir Starmer just wants to make a noise so people dont forget he's there, not much for the opposition to do at the moment!

I completely agree, but I"m glad he's making the noise nevertheless.

It would be stupid to tell the public the exit strategy right now. I think they do have one though. Labour just want to be heard. They are a nonsense party anyway. No one with any brains actually cares what they think

*So, my provisional plan would look something like this:-

1. Wait for deaths to fall as close to zero as we're going to get*

It doesn't even need to be that low imo, tbh. The critical factor is the ratio of transmission. If that ratio falls to the point where each infected person infects, on average, less than one other person (the holy grail of R1), the numbers will start to fall quite quickly and the rate at which it falls will get dramatically steeper.

There are some great graphs around that show the difference between spread at different R rates, and the one that staggered me was how different the picture is at R1.1 and at R0.9.

But it's all irrelevant for us in the UK, because we're not testing so we have no idea what the R rate is.

It would be stupid to tell the public the exit strategy right now

What an inane point. (Which matches the rest of your post). The name calling is always the last resort of someone who has blind party loyalty. Why would treating the general public as if they aren't a bunch of idiots be stupid?

If you believe there is no exit strategy then you have fallen for the inviduous politicking of Labour and various journalists.

Truth is that here will be a number of strategies, variations on variations. BUT none of them can be chosen until there is more data on what is happening with the spread of the virus.

It's like believing that deaths in care homes weren't being counted! Pointless scaremongering. Data has ben collected according to the needs of the scientific community analysing this. Not journalists, not the Labour party, not us, Joe Public.

Whatever the stratgey is there will be a spike in deaths.. and Starmer and those same journalists wil use it as a stick to beat hard... also pointless as it will be the outcome of any lessening of any restrictions.

It's not about thinking we are stupid, that's more jurnalistic twaddle. It's about making sure that we don't do anything to confound the data, the data that will shpe the lifting of restrictions.

Like everything else journalists have been sabre rattling about, that has been explained a few times, very clearly explained, in small words, a couple of days ago! And still those oh so clever journalists ask "Ooh, why won't you tell us what date, what actions...."

If no plan means more people will break lockdown then I, for one, will call for those self same journalists to be held to account for their shameless, deliberate, self interested scaremongering.

But it's all irrelevant for us in the UK, because we're not testing so we have no idea what the R rate is. That's another media hype!

No, there isn't a lot of testing, but there is sampling, just as there are a few people in trials.

As the testing stations gather more data those samples will increase and, because they waited for tests that actually work, are reliable and accurate, they will have untainted data from which to work!

The biggest scandal around testing won't be that the UK waited, it will be the companies that maed a fortune from selling unreliable tests - think about what that means!