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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to be worried about coronavirus part 3

999 replies

peridito · 18/02/2020 09:28

starting this in case ivybush is busy

previous thread
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3819574-AIBU-to-ask-if-you-are-worried-about-the-new-coronavirus-continued

OP posts:
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30
ofwarren · 23/02/2020 14:22

Even if people have just been on holiday to somewhere like Spain? Are they paying them for the week off?

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 14:23

Just read it again. Obviously they will be paid because they are working from home.

NemophilistRebel · 23/02/2020 14:32

A week would surly make no difference though as the rates to show symptoms can be as late as 14 days some longer

Snowdropsdelight · 23/02/2020 14:36

So what can be done in future to stop this kind of thing happening?

nibdedibble · 23/02/2020 15:00

@snowdropsdelight Nothing can be done to stop novel viruses, they arise all the time. There are ‘reservoir species’ which don’t necessarily display symptoms but where the mutations happen that allow the jump to humans. Then it’s a case of shutting things down to lessen the spread.

Snowdropsdelight · 23/02/2020 15:08

Ok, I thought it came in part from eating wilder animals?. So food education, hygiene, eating animals grown for eating etc?

The response has been flabby and transmitted through airports and travel.

Wouldn't future responses include no travel except for those reuniting with family etc.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 15:10

snowdrop China have mentioned that they are going to be putting rules in place regarding the eating of wild animals

SirVixofVixHall · 23/02/2020 15:17

Why they didn’t do that after SARS is beyond me.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 15:19

No 2pm update from the department of health so far which is a bit concerning to be honest. They have been doing it for weeks and haven't missed one yet.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 15:19

So what can be done in future to stop this kind of thing happening?

About as much as you can stop death and taxes generally...

Though much more on how SARS entered the body via ACE-2 receptors could have been done, given concerns and the known potential for a species jump via this route.

If you are looking for positives, looking at 'the floating petridish'...

The 3rd Princess Diamond passenger who died was a Japanese man in his 80s with preexisting conditions.
36 passengers are still in a serious condition.
630 have tested positive from the ship.

I make that 5.7% of those who have tested positive being serious cases and the CFR is currently running at 0.48%

This is a population which is older than the population generally, though they are more affluent so you would expect them to have better underlying health even with pre-existing conditions than the general population.

This could well get worse with more serious cases and fatalities to come yet (the man who died today was taken off the ship on 5th Feb - just over 2 weeks ago).

What happens in 'the real world' is something different. Any deaths that occur won't just be due to the virus itself but also through restricted medical care for other conditions (including shortages of other medicines), amongst people unable to care for themselves who lose their carer and other panic led responses (including potential food shortages and violence).

I think the response to the disease is as important as the actual CFR or critical case rate for this reason.

Worth nothing that Italy and South Korea's case numbers shooting up, are a sign that contact tracing is working as much as its worrying. The fact they are identifying people who have been exposed is good.

The opposite is true for Iran. And to a lesser extent Japan too. I would be asking questions about the response of Japan so far in their reporting - there seems to be a lot of unfollowed leads and multiple cases that have appeared from seemingly nowhere.

MarathonMo · 23/02/2020 15:23

didn't it allegedly arise more from the 'wild' animal contact rather than the eating of wild animals?

lemonjumper · 23/02/2020 15:27

Random question: do the passengers who left the DP testing negative, but then tested positive on return to their own country count towards their country's cases or DP's cases?

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 15:27

Ok, I thought it came in part from eating wilder animals?. So food education, hygiene, eating animals grown for eating etc?

I saw a report about how common it was for coronaviruses to jump into humans, and it stated that the research had found it more common than we originally thought. It was happening on a much more localised level in rural china, and those viruses were very mild meaning that often no one even noticed before the outbreak just burnt out of its own accord. This transmission wasn't happening just because people were eating wild animals; it was merely their close proximity to them. For example visiting caves with bats and carrying a water bottle that came into contact with bat dung so it was inadvertly ingested.

The difference with this virus is its apparent virulacy and how widespread its been.

The point being that whereever humans live in close contact with animals its possible.

Spanish flu was thought to originate in birds, but jumped into humans via pigs which were living close to soliders in WW1.

So poverty, in the form of lack of education, sanitation and secure shelter can be a real threat risk. As can humans living in very high density because it makes human to human transmission much faster.

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 15:29

Random question: do the passengers who left the DP testing negative, but then tested positive on return to their own country count towards their country's cases or DP's cases?

I'm not entirely clear. I think some of the US cases have been included in the US total on occasion.

I think it depends on whose calculations you go by tbh.

heath48 · 23/02/2020 15:35

Waiting for promised daily 2pm update from DOH,lots of people asking on Twitter why it is late.

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 15:36

Makes me think some news is coming Heath. Very worrying indeed.

nibdedibble · 23/02/2020 15:37

Yes, it’s contact with animals and we live with so many species all around us. Bats seem to be grubby little bastards though, they are often cited as the reservoir species. Wink I’ve seen a couple of tweets about pangolins as well. Anything that stops pangolins being killed for their scales would be welcome.

lemonjumper · 23/02/2020 15:54

"The European Union sees “no need to panic” over a coronavirus outbreak in Italy that has killed two people and infected more than 100 in the country.

The bloc’s economic affairs commissioner, Paolo Gentiloni, said:“The EU has full confidence in the Italian authorities and the decisions they are taking.”

“We share concern for possible contagion (but) there is no need to panic.”"

(on the Guardian - www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/23/coronavirus-outbreak-woman-tests-positive-after-disembarking-diamond-princess-live-news)

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2020 15:59

Good Link to read

A blog on preparedness v panic

Ian Mackay is a virologist. Jody Lanard who has Co-authored this is a former senior WHO pandemic communications advisor.

Ian M Mackay PhD @mackayim
^"Like all good pandemic preparedness recommendations, it helps you rehearse emotionally, as well as logistically"
Thanks to @EIDGeek (Dr Jody Lanard) & Dr Peter Sandman who step us all through this process, thoroughly answering my…^

virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/
Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”

It is important to help people understand that while you think – if you do think so – that this is going to be pandemic in terms of becoming very widespread, no one knows yet how much severe disease there will be around the world over short periods of time. “Will it be a mild, or moderate, or severe pandemic? Too soon to say, but at the moment, there are some tentative signs that….”

And

But the P word alone won’t help the public understand what’s about to change: the end of most quarantines, travel restrictions, contact tracing, and other measures designed to keep “them” from infecting “us,” and the switch to measures like canceling mass events designed to keep us from infecting each other.

And

We hope that governments and healthcare institutions are using this time wisely. We know that ordinary citizens are not being asked to do so. In most countries – including our United States and your Australia – ordinary citizens have not been asked to prepare. Instead, they have been led to expect that their governments will keep the virus from their doors.

And

Even officials who say very alarming things about the prospects of a pandemic mostly focus on how their agencies are preparing, not on how the people they misperceive as “audience” should prepare. “Audience” is the wrong frame. We are all stakeholders, and we don’t just want to hear what officials are doing. We want to hear what we can do too.

And

Suggesting things people can do to prepare for a possible hard time to come doesn’t just get them better prepared logistically. It also helps get them better prepared emotionally. It helps get them through the Oh My God (OMG) moment everyone needs to have, and needs to get through, preferably without being accused of hysteria.

It is better to get through this OMG moment now rather than later.

Offering people a list of preparedness steps to choose among means that those who are worried and feeling helpless can better bear their worry, and those who are beyond worry and deep into denial can better face their worry.

Yet another benefit: The more people who are making preparedness efforts, the more connected to each other they feel. Pandemic preparedness should be a communitarian experience. When a colleague offers you an elbow bump instead of a handshake, your mind goes to those lists of preparedness recommendations you’ve been seeing, and you feel part of a community that’s getting ready together.

This OMG realization that we have termed the “adjustment reaction” (see www.psandman.com/col/teachable.htm ) is a step that is hard to skip on the way to the new normal. Going through it before a crisis is full-blown is more conducive to resilience, coping, and rational response than going through it mid-crisis. Officials make a mistake when they sugarcoat alarming information, postponing the public’s adjustment reaction in the vain hope that they can avoid it altogether.

also worth reflecting on what the purpose of this thread is now becoming

KoalasandRabbit · 23/02/2020 16:04

4 more in UK from Diamond Princess according to DoH.

lemonjumper · 23/02/2020 16:06

Italy is suddenly the top story on BBC and Sky News!

meredithgrey1 · 23/02/2020 16:06

4 more in UK from Diamond Princess according to DoH.

Given how many other passengers were testing positive once back in their home countries after previous negative tests, I'd have been more surprised if none of them had it.

FelicityFebruary · 23/02/2020 16:07

Red I am not in the habit of reading linked opinion pieces but that blog sounds different. Spot on for where things seem to be now.

Singapore authorities sounded like they were doing this?

Thanks for linking and I will read it AFTER I've gone out for a walk while its not raining!

ofwarren · 23/02/2020 16:07

Do you have a link koalas ?

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